It is expected to smash it first and then pull it up today, but the opening market is not smashed and pulled up, of course, if you don't smash it, it will not be pulled, it can only be sideways, and if you don't smash it, the rebound will naturally have no strength, and you have seen the results. The long and short sides are just tugging back and forth, and now the rebound is basically exchanged for a fall, and it is difficult to pull up without the stimulation of heavy positives, which is nothing more than a tug-of-war between the long and short sides. Fortunately, the index representing small and medium-sized themes on the disk surpasses the index representing weight, and it suddenly has a money-making effect, which is the result everyone wants.
Yesterday's weakness and today's opening strength are more or less than expected, yesterday's actual rise in the favorable factors quite a lot, first of all, the foreign market of the US stock rise, the RMB exchange rate rose sharply, foreign capital to do long, the release of the Securities Regulatory Commission and the favorable conditions for Wednesday's sharp fall, but yesterday's A shares went anticlimactic, the amount of amplification is insufficient, many people interpret yesterday's rise as a downward relay. In addition, the U.S. stock market fell yesterday evening, and today is the delivery day of stock index futures, so many people think that it will fall today, but from my point of view, I am not so pessimistic about today, I think it is difficult to smash down, and the probability of a small pull up is larger, at least from the trend of the morning, in line with my expectations.
But the rise of the disk is like walking on thin ice, step by step thrilling, the bulls have a little force, it will usher in a short counterattack, it is really difficult to rise, fortunately, the funds are biased towards the theme, so the number of rising stocks is far more than the number of falling, but, the rise is really not strong, half an hour in the morning, about 3,500 rising stocks, only about 100 stocks that rose by more than 5%, the disk looks lively, in fact, they are all familiar with each other, and they can't make money at all.
1. Should it fall in the morning or not, does it mean that the market is stronger?
Although today's opening was stable, it soon rose, which has indicated a short-term strength, of course, the index fell back, but in the process of falling, I did not see the amplification of the amount of energy, and I did not see the panic market killing. It shows that the market's mentality is stable, this is just a normal intraday fluctuation, and there is no need to worry. From the perspective of the sector, the early decline is completely caused by the weight decline, in addition to banks, insurance, real estate belongs to profit-taking, securities, brewing, the prefix belongs to the back and forth, there is no reason to fall sharply, my conclusion is that the weight is differentiated, it is difficult to form a resonance, do not worry about how much drag on the index.
The good times are not long, the index is high and falling, the index turned green, and entered the saw-war, from the technical point of view, the Shanghai finger is subject to the 5-day moving average suppression and falls, and today's 30-day moving average upward golden cross 250-day line, the general moving average golden cross, the amplitude of the market will be larger, so it is not excluded that the short-term will fall further, if it falls down, what position can stop falling, from the 30-minute K-line chart of the Shanghai Index to see very clearly, there is 3111-31116 below the gap support, For the time being, let's look at the support of this gap, if the gap is not broken, the short-term means that it will be stronger, once it is broken, it will weaken today, and it will basically hit the 20-day moving average below the position of 3103 and pull up.
Next, if there is no blockbuster stimulus, the market will not rise, but it does not mean that it will have to be smashed downward, and now there is a policy to support the bottom, so there is no need to worry about smashing down.
2. Why is the market in a dilemma?
The current market is too tormenting, after May Day until now, the index is still rising, but basically most people are losing money, when the index rises, look at the rise of a lot of stocks, but in fact, most of the stocks rise very limited, the number of stocks that really rise is very small, everyone can not make money at all, the market's mood is hot and cold, confidence is extremely unstable.
First of all, the lack of capacity is the biggest problem, mainly because institutional funds have no confidence in the market, and they are constantly smashing the market. The reason why domestic investors do not have confidence is that institutions do not necessarily make money by going long, and second, with the continuous upgrading of supervision, some changes in rules are extremely unfavorable to institutions, and there is a very strong short-selling mechanism in the market.
Secondly, Guo Jia's team only protects the plate and only wants to play the role of throwing bricks and attracting jade, but the agency is not confident enough. Centrifugal and detached, retail investors can only wait and see.
To change this status quo, unless Guo Jia's team goes long and pulls the market up quickly, there is no hope.
3. Will it be pulled up in the afternoon?
Today, affected by the delivery date of stock index futures, everyone thinks that it is the statutory smashing day, but in fact, it seems that the morning market is going to be smashed, and it can't be smashed. Now I can't smash it down, I look at the rebound, and no one is chasing it, and I am in a dilemma.
If this kind of rise can't go up, it is likely to be smashed again in the afternoon. If you smash it, it's an opportunity. I have repeatedly stressed that there is no possibility of a unilateral decline, and that if there is a sharp fall in the short term, you will enter the market, and you will wait.