Be a person who loves to learn and is willing to grow with me
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When the property market is at its craziest,
Some people have suffered a terrible death
Text/Yan Lingyang
01
When it comes to buying a house, I also practice my hunch myself......
For example, taking advantage of the downturn in the property market, I completed the operation of replacing a set; I also wanted to exchange the other set, but the buyer's price was two million lower than I expected.
I thought that "buying a house should be bought when no one cares, and selling a house should be sold in a crowded place", and the friction cost of replacing it again is a bit high, so I took it back to decorate and do lighting (for me, decoration is not investment, but consumption).
I have two considerations:
First, the property below 10 million yuan in the urban area has weakened its value preservation and appreciation attributes, and if it is only replaced within this limit, it is not of much significance;
Second, I haven't replaced this set, which is located in the area with the most new high-paying jobs in the core area of Guangzhou, and if the property market in the core area of the first-tier cities really starts to recover after 2026, it will also catch up.
If I don't recover, I will continue to lose money..... Pay for your perception with real money.
I watched some real estate bloggers last night instigating others to take over their designated properties at the peak of housing prices in Shenzhen in 2021, or even crowdfunding to buy a house, but keeping only one set for themselves.
If you trust me, when I give you advice, I never recommend you to buy a specific real estate, and it must be written "does not constitute investment advice, for reference only, you have to take the specific idea yourself".
When buying a house, the most important thing is "one family one decision", we must make decisions based on our own actual situation, do not "follow the clouds", and we must pay attention to controlling risks.
02
How crazy is the Shenzhen property market in 2021?
Many people go to register a company temporarily, find a bank to apply for a loan through Y, and then transfer a few more hands to use the money to buy a house.
There are still many people who think that "deep houses will always rise", and several people crowdfund to buy a house, or even borrow money to buy a house. If you don't have the qualifications to buy a house, you will find a way to cheat.
As a result, after the first quarter of 2021, Shenzhen's housing prices turned downward, and in 2023 and 2024, with the expiration of Y loans, many people couldn't hold back their capital chains and hurriedly sold their houses...... The price of some properties has been cut in half.
This wave of operations directly lost millions of dollars, and half of his life was in vain.
In contrast, I don't think the atmosphere of property speculation in Guangzhou is so strong. There is a lot of new money in Shenzhen, a lot of old money in Guangzhou, and the biggest feature of the old money compared with the new money is: I have seen the wind and waves, and I have also suffered the lessons of the market, and the performance is relatively stable.
Therefore, in this round, Guangzhou's housing prices have fallen to the point that they are not as ruthless as Shenzhen (some real estate projects in Guangzhou have also been made into villages, and those real estate projects with many speculation groups have also fallen sharply).
Y loans are generally due in three years, and they are applied for in 2020 and 2021, and 2023 and 2024 are the concentrated blasting periods.
But after this period of time, it should slowly stabilize. I think there is a high probability that it will stabilize in 2025.
With the Fed reluctant to enter the rate cut channel, and as confidence slowly recovers, I think inflation will come sooner or later, and the timing of the recovery is probably 2026.
If I'm wrong, then I'...... Just apologize.
03
In my opinion, even if you have a stable income when buying a house, you should increase the down payment ratio appropriately as you get older.
For example, at the age of 25, you can make a down payment of 30%; 35 years old, down payment of 50%; 45 years old, down payment 70%; 55 years old, down payment 90%.
After that, the bank won't give you a loan, and you'll have to pay almost the full amount.
To control risks, we must put in front of striving for profits.
But I've found that a lot of people nowadays always compare themselves to a certain blogger on the Internet, thinking that others can be like that, and they can be like that.....
The problem is that people's situations are different, and many things are not comparable, so don't blindly imitate and follow the trend.
The above is the situation of ordinary people, if you have to take those "people who are rich and poor" to raise the bar, then you go out.
The human income curve is nothing more than these three types in the figure.
The first is the steady growth type.
This kind of person really doesn't account for much of the population, maybe about 10%?
There may be brief twists and turns in their lives, but overall they are upward.
At a certain point in time, it is almost necessary to get rid of gravity and soar up to 90,000 miles, and it is unlikely to fall down if it goes up.
The second type is the big ups and downs.
There are fewer of them, maybe 1% or less?
The third is that the majority of salarymen and ordinary people can only mix food and clothing for a lifetime, and their income slowly climbs at the age of 25, reaches the peak at the age of 40, and then falls, and maintains the level of food and clothing after retirement until the end of life.
I'm also an ordinary person, and I'm just the third type. What we're talking about here is the situation of ordinary people.
04
Living in this society, how can you not pay attention to the economy?
It's about everyone. Everyone lives in the same body of water, and the water temperature and quality have a lot to do with themselves.
The current economic problem is not the industrial stagnation and weak consumption caused by the epidemic, but the accumulation of shortcomings in the past ten years has begun to erupt, which is that the industry cannot support the property market, the property market cannot support the finance, the fiscal cannot support debt, and the debt is difficult to support the currency.
Now M2 is already 30 billion, and residents' deposits are more than 10 billion, and if all this money is flowing, inflation is inevitable.
But how do you make it flow? The state is also figuring out a way. If it doesn't do well, it will fall into a "liquidity trap".
I think everyone may have to be prepared to "fight a long battle".
In any industry, there will be a period of rise, prosperity and decline......
At the beginning, some people first realized that there was demand in the market, and began to go to the layout of this industry and drink soup at the end.
This is the stage of savage growth, and the requirements for the entrants are not high, whether they are reckless or heroic, as long as they have courage (not necessarily talent), they are easy to get a piece of the pie.
Capital is the smartest, and when it realizes that the industry is profitable, it will intervene strongly, pushing the threshold of the industry higher, and ordinary people can only stand aside.
This is a prosperous period, and money, talents, and resources will be inclined and flow to this industry.
In the recession period, the threshold for entering the industry is higher, the supervision becomes stricter, and the room for routine becomes less. Many people can't get involved with others and begin to quit and transform.
It's the same with the real estate industry...... Now real estate developers, living a little nourishing, probably only have the unit with the prefix of the national character.
Ordinary real estate investors are the same, in the past, you could buy a house at will, but now you buy a house, if you want to maintain and increase its value, the threshold may exceed 10 million.
The vast majority of people don't make money because of ...... When everyone is afraid, you are also afraid; When everyone is greedy, you are greedy.
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Author: Yan Lingyang, born in the 80s, emotional columnist, author of new feminism, member of the Chinese Writers Association. He is the author of the best-selling books "Those That Make You Miserable, One Day You Will Say It with a Smile", "May You Let Go of the Past and Be Worthy of the Future", "May You Have a Journey and a Way Out", "I'm Divorced", "With Your Rivers and Lakes Are Not Lonely - An Alternative Interpretation of Jin Yong's Martial Arts Novels" and the children's picture book "Mom's House, Dad's House". With 13 years of experience in financial industry (management), he is currently the founder of a cultural information consulting company in Guangzhou and the co-founder of a cultural media company. Born in Lijiang, Yunnan Province, he now lives in Guangzhou.
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