Special analyst Feng Likun
This week, it is necessary to pay attention to the influence of hot and dry winds and lodging in the northern winter wheat area
Last week, most of the winter wheat areas in the north were dominated by fine weather, sufficient light and heat, and suitable moisture in most areas, which was conducive to winter wheat heading and filling, and some wheat fields in southern Hebei, central Henan, and northwest Anhui lacked soil moisture. There is a lot of rainy weather in central and southern Guizhou, southeastern Sichuan, eastern Yunnan and other places, which is not conducive to summer grain harvesting. The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that there will be dry and hot wind weather in Huanghuai and southern North China from the 17th to the 20th, which is not conducive to wheat grain filling and fruiting, and at the same time, the high temperature and lack of moisture are conducive to the proliferation of wheat aphids and a large number of feeding harms. Before the 17th, the precipitation in the south was small and weak, which was conducive to the harvesting of summer grain crops.
At present, the national spring plowing and spring sowing has come to an end, and the progress is slightly faster than usual. Spring wheat in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia is in the seedling to three-leaf stage, and some of them have entered the tillering and jointing stage, and most of them are in the tillering to jointing stage. Since March, the temperature in most parts of Northwest China is higher than that of the same period of the normal year, the sunshine is close to the normal year, the precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China and the northern part of Xinjiang is 3 ~ 2 times more than that of the same period in the normal year, the soil moisture storage is more sufficient, and the good hydrothermal conditions are conducive to the emergence of spring wheat. The cold wave in mid-April in Xinjiang was not conducive to the emergence of spring wheat.
Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory monitoring shows that on the evening of May 14, there were 8~10 gales in most parts of the north north of the Huai River, 11 or more gales in the north, central and western parts of the country, and 12 to 13 in the northwest of Xinxiang, western Zhengzhou and northern Xuchang. On May 15, Yu Weidong, chief engineer of the Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences and senior engineer of the research level, said that at present, there are lodging plots in Xinxiang, Hebi and Puyang, and there are a small number of points and pieces of lodging in other areas.
At present, wheat in Henan has entered the critical stage of grain filling, and from the perspective of the whole province, the impact of the strong wind on wheat is generally light. From the perspective of lodging plots, due to the recent dry weather, farmers concentrated on irrigation in these two days, and the loose soil of the irrigated wheat field, coupled with the influence of windy weather, caused the lodging of wheat field, and the mild lodging had little impact on the yield, but the severe lodging would cause the wheat stalk to break, and then affect the maturity of wheat. In order to effectively do a good job in wheat lodging response and remediation, on May 15, Henan Provincial Agricultural Technology Extension Station issued the "Technical Guidance on Wheat Lodging Response and Remediation" for the first time to guide farmers to respond scientifically and ensure harvest quality.
Hubei Xinmai opened the scale slightly above the minimum purchase price
This week, Hubei new season wheat has been listed, the overall harvest progress in Hubei Province is about two percent, the quality of harvested wheat is good, the flour mill can be used normally, and some enterprises in Henan Province have purchased new wheat. At present, the overall supply of wheat market is sufficient, the new season wheat harvest is expected to be strong, the price of new wheat is low, the procurement of milling enterprises tends to be cautious, some listed enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new wheat for the first time, and the price of individual enterprises is the same, and the price of wheat in Hubei follows the market price to decline. Judging from the price of new wheat that has been listed in Hubei, the price of the scale is about 2,400 yuan/ton, which is about 200 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year, and slightly higher than the price of 2,360 yuan/ton. Looking specifically at the price of new wheat, on May 15, the price of new wheat in 2024 in Wudeli in Zhoukou, Henan Province was 2,464 yuan/ton, which was 56 yuan/ton lower than the price when the scale was opened; Henan Suiping Wudeli 2460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; Shandong Dongming Wudeli price 2520 yuan / ton; Hebei Shenzhou Wudeli 2520 yuan/ton; Jiangsu Xinghua Wudeli 2580 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Weinan Wudeli 2580 yuan / ton.
At present, the quantity of new wheat on the market is not large, and the quality is different, so the price range is large, and it is only a test offer, which is not very representative. Judging from the southern part of Hubei that has been harvested so far, there is lodging phenomenon in the local wheat fields, and sporadic occurrence of scab occurs, but the occurrence of germinated wheat is rare. Due to the rainy weather in April, this year's crop was average, and the bulk density of wheat was lower than that of the previous year. If there is continuous rainy weather in the later period, the quality of wheat in some areas may be damaged, but it can be digested by local feed enterprises and flour enterprises, and the advantage of export transportation is not large.
Considering the good weather during the wheat growing season last year and the best yield in recent years, this year's wheat yield in Hubei is a flat year. According to the situation in Anhui Province, Henan Province sowed more than 10 days later than normal during the autumn sowing period, the weather was fine at the flowering stage, and there was almost no scab phenomenon in central and northern Henan, and the number of wheat ears increased due to the long jointing stage. In some areas of southern Henan and northern Anhui, affected by the poor rain in the previous year, local farmers increased the sowing amount during autumn sowing, and wheat planting was denser, and there were sporadic lodging phenomena in some areas. In the area south of the Huai River, there is rainy weather during the flowering period, and gibberella is scattered sporadically. Hubei new wheat is expected to be listed in large quantities around May 20, the current grain enterprises and traders have a wait-and-see attitude, the willingness to build a warehouse is not strong, with the main harvest and go, to the main production areas of northern Hubei after a large number of new wheat listed and then according to the market situation to adjust the acquisition strategy.
Affected by multiple factors, it is expected that the price of aged wheat will be difficult to fall deeply
On May 15, the price of ordinary wheat (national standard second class, the same below) in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 2560 yuan/ton, Hengshui was 2540 yuan/ton, and Handan was 2540 yuan/ton; Shandong Jinan 2540 yuan/ton, Dezhou 2520 yuan/ton, Heze 2550 yuan/ton; Henan Zhengzhou 2540 yuan/ton, Xinxiang 2530 yuan/ton, Zhoukou 2510 yuan/ton; Xuzhou, Jiangsu 2570 yuan/ton; Suzhou, Anhui Province 2570 yuan/ton, down 10~110 yuan/ton week-on-week (Henan fell more week-on-week, mainly because some manufacturers quoted the same price). This week, wheat prices continued to fall last week, and the turnover rate and transaction price of local reserves decreased compared with the previous period, and the market sentiment was more pessimistic. The main reasons: First, the new season wheat is about to be marketed, if the weather is good during the harvest period, it is expected to have another bumper harvest, and the market supply pressure will increase. Second, although the rotation of central reserves has been suspended, the amount of wheat that has not been shipped out of the warehouse in the early stage is relatively large, which can still meet the market supply. Third, the downstream demand is not strong, and the flour enterprises are in the period of inventory reduction, mainly from the local reserves to rotate and auction grain sources to ensure production. Fourth, before the new wheat is listed, traders are under great pressure to vacate their positions and capital, and they are concentrating on selling grain at this stage.
Although the wheat market is facing the above "four negatives", there is also positive news to limit the decline of old wheat. From the policy side, on May 15, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Food and Material Reserves Administration and other departments issued the "Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in the Procurement of Grain and Oil in the Summer of 2024" to make comprehensive arrangements and arrangements for the purchase of summer grain. After the announcement of the summer grain purchase policy, the central and local reserves will start the new wheat rotation work one after another. In addition, the State Food and Material Reserves Administration expects that the purchase volume of summer grain in the peak season will be about 70 million tons, a slight increase from last year, of which about 63 million tons of wheat, which will boost wheat prices to a certain extent.
From the supply side, the market is generally concerned about the weather before the harvest, especially the dry and hot wind conditions in the producing areas; Local reserve wheat rotation is the main source of grain for the current flour enterprises, close to the new wheat market, the current wheat price continues to fall, all parties pay more attention to the local reserve auction policy. From the demand side, the new season wheat needs to be ripened before it can be used to process flour, and flour companies are currently maintaining low inventory operations, waiting for new wheat to go on the market and centralized procurement, so it is expected that the price of new wheat will show a trend of "low opening and high walking". From the point of view of price comparison, the main producing areas of wheat and corn price spread from the high point of 470 yuan/ton in late February to the current 240 yuan/ton or so, in the current corn price is difficult to fall deeply, if the price of wheat continues to fall, wheat-corn price falls below 150 yuan/ton, wheat will have the advantage of feeding, so the price of corn as the "bottom" of wheat prices, the price of wheat to form a supporting role.