Liu Wenbao is introducing the market changes of "Sunshine Rose" in 2023
From the changes of Liu Wenbao (general manager of Shenzhen Kimura Agricultural Development Co., Ltd.) in recent years, we can see the hardships of entrepreneurship. Before starting his business, he was a casual and free sunny guy; At the beginning of his business, he was a proud young man full of ambition; Two years later, he is like a languishing teenager who frequently falls out of love; And now the "leopard brother" sitting in front of me is a middle-aged man who has gone through vicissitudes.
"You don't know how stressed I was last year." Liu Wenbao lifted his hair on one side, revealing a piece of smooth scalp (alopecia areata), "This large piece of hair is inexplicably gone, I went to the doctor, and the doctor said that there is no cure, and I can only rely on my own psychological adjustment, don't let myself be too stressed." ”
"Last year, 'Sunshine Rose' was done, did it make money or keep the capital in the end?" I'm embarrassed to ask if I'm losing money again.
Liu Wenbao builds the "Kimura" brand (2023)
His change of demeanor is closely related to the profit and loss of the business, the first year earned two Land Rovers, the second year lost two Land Rover, last year was the year of the fall of the "Sunshine Rose", I learned at the end of last year that the fruit merchants basically do not make money, the only hope is to stock the fruit.
"In the end, the stock fruit made money, and the fresh fruit lost a little." Liu Wenbao said: "Last year, Xianguo Jiangxi and Xichang all lost money, and (Wu) Xiaoping's was like a magic spell, doing three years and losing three years. ”
I laughed. Not only Wu Xiaoping, but most of the fruit merchants I know have difficulty making money from the goods of the benchmark orchard, mainly because these products have a certain brand premium on the B-side, but they cannot play a role in the C-side, so the cost performance is not high.
"Sunshine Rose" in storage (2023)
"When did you clear your stock last year?" I asked.
In the past two years, my market has been relatively tight, and I know that the price of inventory fruit in the later period has collapsed, which directly affects the market of the newly listed "Sunshine Rose" in Xishuangbanna in March this year.
"I shipped 98% of the goods before the Spring Festival, and I kept 20,000 catties, and the 20,000 catties also made me lose 160,000 yuan." Liu Wenbao flipped out a video from his mobile phone: "I didn't dare to post this video on Moments, they couldn't sell it in the end, and the whole car was poured into the river." ”
"Does that mean that the gang of people who saved until after the Spring Festival have lost?" I found a point in time.
Workers grading and packing "Sunshine Rose" (2023)
"It's all lost, and it's bad." Liu Wenbao analyzed: "The reason for last year's loss is that they do not understand the market, one is the impact of 'autumn crisp' imported fruits, and the other is that the domestic market is really sluggish, and the price before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the price in November last year." In the past, it was normal for us to earn seven or eight yuan a pound of fruit in stock, but last year we could earn two or three yuan, so we hurriedly threw it away. Why do I make money by storing fruits? It's because I didn't want to earn seven or eight yuan a pound, and this kind of chance is gone. ”
After all, Liu Wenbao is a veteran of the battlefield, he sensed the risk of the market in the chat with his peers, and when he saw that everyone refused to ship, he hurried to ship, otherwise he would have to lose a large piece of hair after the Spring Festival.
"Are you selling this year?" After chatting about the previous year, I brought the topic back to the new season of "Sunshine Rose".
Liu Wenbao at the beginning of his business (2021)
"I mined it on April 16, and I have already picked seven or eight truckloads, all of which are garbage fruits, more than 20 yuan/kg." Liu Wenbao said: "There is a new situation in Jianshui this year, because the price listed in April last year is 50~70 yuan/kg, whether it is five or six grams (fruit weight) or seven or eight grams, it can be sold at this price, so everyone is rushing early this year." For example, last year, only 2 out of 100 growers went on the market in April, and this year 60 are listed in April......"
"Such a high proportion!" It was a bit of a surprise to me, "That's going to crash again." ”
"The second point is that all major channels across the country are reluctant to put it on the shelves, because from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, there is no gap period. Peru's 'Autumn Crunch' and 'Sweet Earth', including 'Marshmallow', are also delicious and inexpensive. ”
Fruit shop long "Sunshine Rose"
"Consumers also need a change of taste." This is what I have always emphasized about variety diversity and taste differentiation, and any variety of "domination of the world" will lead to a dead end, such as "Fuji" apples and "Sunshine Rose".
"Coupled with the weather, this year's particles can't grow, generally 3~4 grams, 5~6 grams, and there are very few more than 8 grams."
Liu Wenbao analyzed them one by one. "A few days ago, an association issued a report, saying that the 'Sunshine Rose' opened both collapsed, and the price plummeted by 50%, I left a message saying that he was talking nonsense, one did not do market research, and the other did not do origin research, listening to the wind is rain, hurting the entire industry. The next day he took it down. ”
An early and low-yielding orchard that has been harvested
"This is also true, it just doesn't take into account the difference in quality between this year and last year." I said with a smile. From the perspective of the media, I don't think there is a big problem with this report, but it does not analyze the specific reasons behind it.
Blindly promote early, quality declines, market weakness, external shocks...... The combination of these factors has caused the market of "Sunshine Rose" to fall in early 2024, and the income of growers has plummeted.
"Is there still a good garden for Jianshui now?" I'll ask the benchmark again. Jianshui, the "Sunshine Rose" region, is very strange, and there are exciting benchmarks every year, but they change every year, and there is no winning general.
Liu Wenbao (left) and the orchard owner negotiate the price
"Yes, but very little." Liu Wenbao gave an example: "There is a park, the boss is also from Zhejiang, 30 acres of land, last year sold for 3.7 million yuan, this year someone opened 4.2 million yuan and he is not willing to sell." ”
"Can you make this kind of goods?" What I'm asking about is actually the market of high-quality fruits.
"50 yuan/kg is no problem." Liu Wenbao analyzed: "This year, Jianshui blueberries have developed rapidly, the planting area of 'Sunshine Rose' has been reduced by 1/3, and 1/3 has been picked early, like Baiguoyuan, Chengxin Zhiyuan, Pioneer, Zheguo No. 1, Fresh Fruit Baba, Green Leaves, Yulu Space, these chain stores together have more than 10,000 stores, and these more than 10,000 stores will be on the counter one after another from May 10, you tell me where to ask for goods." ”
"The price will go up later." I have always fixed the core reason for the rise and fall of prices on the "supply and demand relationship", even if the sales of "Sunshine Rose" of these chain fruit stores have shrunk due to consumption power, it cannot withstand the cliff-like decline in production capacity in the same period.
The "Sunshine Rose" harvest garden ripens in May
"After May 10, it will enter the stage of grabbing goods, so there are really good goods during this time, and I dare to take 60 yuan/kg." Liu Wenbao raised his psychological price by 10 yuan/kg, which was very close to the price of the same period last year.
"That May-June will be the high point of this year's 'Sunshine Rose', and there should be no shortage in July." The information I got earlier was that the entire Yangtze River basin was also in a hurry, and it was necessary to rush to the market in July to avoid the subsequent market trough.
"In July, the main production area is in Binchuan, and the quality of other production areas is not as good as in previous years due to climate reasons, so the price will be very good at the beginning of July this year, and the price will drop in mid to late July." Liu Wenbao said: "In general, the price in the first half of this year will be very stable, and it will not change as much as in previous years; It's hard to say about the second half of the year. But now the market for 'Sunshine Rose' is not only domestic, how many growers were saved by exports last year. ”
Liu Wenbao (1st from right) and his team members discuss the procurement of goods
I've heard about that, too. Since late September last year, most of the poor-quality "Sunshine Rose" from Jiangsu, Shandong and other producing areas have been exported to Southeast Asia, otherwise it has really become "the worst grape variety in history".
"Now many farmers are worried, can 'Sunshine Rose' still be planted? Isn't it the end of the calf? Liu Wenbao asked and answered: "My point of view is that it has only passed the windfall profit period, but the dividend period is still there." According to the current output and cost of 'Sunshine Rose', selling 5 yuan/kg can still make half of the money. The only thing that needs to be adjusted now is our mindset. ”
"When the price of 'Sunshine Rose' fell to 5 yuan per catty, you didn't have a chance?" I asked.
This year's new "Qingqi" brand
"Yes, but very little, and I can only earn a few cents (a pound)." Liu Wenbao said: "Our current opportunity is in the early Yunnan and late inventory, and it is already difficult to do in the middle. In the past, we could only buy 'Sunshine Roses' in first, second and third-tier cities, but now we can even sell them in our village, so how many opportunities are there. ”
"But there is also an element of gambling when making stock fruits, like last year, it depends on whether the bet is right or not." In fact, I am not optimistic about the early opportunities, because in recent years, I have hardly heard of any fruit merchants who have made a lot of money with Jianshui's "Sunshine Rose", on the contrary, I have heard a lot of cases of the market being upside down and losing money to pave the way.
"Because the stock fruit is futures, there must be an element of gambling." Liu Wenbaoyun said lightly: "At this time, it is a great test of a person's details and professionalism. For example, your understanding of the market, the understanding of channels, the understanding of import and export, and the understanding of competing products...... We must be clear about this information. ”
The vineyard on the right side of the main road has been turned into a blueberry field
"Only when you get the information right can you have a chance." I looked up and saw the bald areata on his head again, and I couldn't help but sigh, so I asked again: "What do you think is the biggest change in your three years of entrepreneurship?" ”
"The biggest change is the mentality." Liu Wenbao said: "I want to thank me for my loss the year before last, if I didn't lose the year before last, I was bolder last year, I would have saved millions of catties of goods, and the result may fall into a bigger pit." Just like in the past few years, too many people have poured into this industry, those who harvest potatoes and cabbage have come to collect 'Sunshine Roses', and those who are engaged in real estate have also come to engage in 'Sunshine Roses', all of whom want to make a lot of money in it, and he will definitely be thunderous. ”
"Have you ever thought about changing tracks?" Outside the Kimura cottage, the vineyard on the side of the main road has been turned into a blueberry field.
Liu Wenbao, who is still full of confidence despite the storm
"Well......" Liu Wenbao pondered for a while before replying: "Actually, they are changing, and I am also changing." But I still say that the windfall period of 'Sunshine Rose' is over, but its bonus period is still there. ”
May 3, 2024