So far, the stock account is up 18.5% for the year and is up 1.1% today, with a projected return of more than 20%.
After 5 consecutive years of gains in 19-23, the high-dividend strategy continues to show a high risk-return ratio this year, with not low returns and relatively low volatility.
Therefore, in the future, I will stick to the high dividend strategy.
One
If you are based on a high-dividend strategy, you can get to this round of strong real estate rebound.
Taking BLFZ, a leading A-share real estate company, as an example, the lowest price this year is 7.74 yuan.
来源：Wind
The listed company released its annual report after the close of trading on April 22, with a net profit of 12.067 billion in 23 years, a year-on-year increase of -34%.
But as the core of a high-dividend strategy, I am most concerned about dividends.
As a result, the dividend per share was $0.41, and the dividend ratio increased from 30% to 40%.
At the same time, the company released a 23-25 year shareholder return plan, and the cash dividend ratio in the next 3 years will not be less than 40%.
After the release of the earnings report, BLFZ's share price is still below 8 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.5 times and a dividend yield of not less than 5%.
When there is a 5% dividend return, as long as you think that the real estate will eventually bottom, then there is also a good allocation value.
Two
It is precisely because of this that I began to gradually get involved in stocks after Jiang Cheng and Bao Wuke, fund managers who hold heavy positions in real estate, and currently hold more than 30% of the income.
But my position is not high, because at that time, the sales of the top 100 real estate fell by 45.8% year-on-year in 1-3 years, so according to my most pessimistic expectation, BLWY's net profit may fall by 30% this year.
Then the net profit in 24 years will drop to 8.5 billion, the earnings per share will drop to 0.7 yuan, and the dividend ratio will not be less than 40%, then the dividend per share will not be less than 0.28 yuan.
Based on a 5% dividend yield, the most pessimistic share price would fall to $5.6.
But in any case, my reasonable valuation of the real estate leader is at least 1 PB, so when the price-to-book ratio is 0.5 times and the dividend yield is 5%, the move is very smooth.
And I have always believed in Jiang Cheng's long logic of real estate judgment:
Real estate is a pillar industry in any country, accounting for at least 6%-8% of GDP.
Real estate is a 10 trillion industry, and a profit margin of 10% is 1 trillion.
In the future, the share of real estate leaders will increase, and a 10% share will represent a net profit of 100 billion, and a reasonable price-earnings ratio of 10 times will be a trillion market value.
And now the market value is generally only 100 billion, and the potential rate of return is attractive enough.
Three
Behind the 30% return, the investment logic is very simple:
First, based on the high dividend strategy of double high and one low, the dividend yield is not less than 5%, and the price-to-book ratio is 0.5 times, which fully meets the standard;
Second, common sense can judge that the real estate industry is okay for a long time, as long as you buy an excellent enterprise (fund) that has proven itself, in the future, with the increase in market share and the recovery of profit margins, it will change from valuation repair to fundamentals-driven, which will be the coveted Davis double-click.
When you understand the goodness of a high dividend strategy, you will naturally understand that I am not so afraid of a bear market because there is a dividend yield to base upon.
And I believe that with the number of listed companies exceeding 5,000 and the market capital limited, the future bull market will only be a structural bull market, not a full-fledged bull market.
The future bear market will only be a structural bear market, not a full-fledged bear market.
Just as behind the 19-20 bull market in core assets was a bear market in small-cap stocks.
And the bear market in core assets in 21-23 is also a bull market for cyclical stocks.
At the same time, when you understand that the best state of a high-dividend strategy is the Davis double click of valuation and performance, just like 17 years of liquor and 21 years of coal, you will naturally understand,
A high-dividend strategy is also expected to yield strong long-term returns.
Relying on a high dividend strategy can also allow me to achieve my life goal of 6 million.
Finally, regarding the list of high-dividend funds, except for Liu Xu, Jiang Cheng, Zhang Yifei and Bao Wuke, who have a heavy position.
Guangfa's Feng Hanjie is also very good, and his quarterly report is also a must-see for me in every issue.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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