Dahe Daily Yu video reporter Gao Peng Han Yiting
On May 17, the People's Bank of China issued three consecutive articles to adjust the real estate policy: reduce the down payment ratio, reduce the interest rate of provident fund loans, and cancel the lower limit of loan interest rates. On the same day, the State Council organized a meeting related to real estate work, clarifying that local governments can implement the "purchase instead of construction" destocking model according to the actual situation.
Relevant experts believe that today's national introduction of four blockbuster policies, is a very rare relaxation in the history of home purchases, its energy level exceeds all the past relaxation policies, is a historical level of housing purchase boost policy, far-reaching impact.
Next, the new policy will continue to have an impact, which has a positive effect on this week's market transactions, next week's real estate stocks, the property market for the whole year, the boost of buyers' market confidence, and the overall improvement of the financial situation of real estate enterprises, which fully reflects the country's attention and support for the real estate market, and also fully reflects that the foundation for the good development of the housing market is continuing to increase.
Experts said that the current policies are stimulating to the property market in the short term, allowing residents to buy more houses, but whether the current trend of real estate is fundamentally reversed in the long term remains to be seen, or in other words, more efforts need to be made on the income side and social security.
The proportion of the first set is reduced to 15%
On May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration clarified that for resident families who take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to no less than 25%.
Expert Comments:
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that in the past, the minimum down payment ratio for house purchases in the country was 20%, but there have always been opposition or different opinions on continuing to reduce it. However, it is clear that the down payment ratio of the mortgage has been reduced to 15% historically.
This is the lowest down payment ratio in history, and it is not only the most lenient policy in the history of mortgage lending, but also the most lenient policy of all types of home buying policies in recent years.
Compared with the relaxation of purchase restrictions and the lack of mortgages in the past, the reduction of the down payment ratio is far more than the policies of other cities, and can even be understood as the most relaxed policy in history.
This naturally shows that the national level attaches great importance to destocking and supporting reasonable housing consumption demand, which is of great significance for the pull of housing loans, and for the rapid release and large-scale release of rigid demand and improved housing. This policy will have a very significant positive impact on the real estate market and real estate stocks.
Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, believes that this policy has reduced the down payment pressure on home buyers, especially those who have a first home. At the same time, for buyers of second homes, although the down payment ratio has increased, it is still at a low level compared to the previous policy. This helps to unleash the demand for home purchases and promote the activity of the real estate market.
CPF interest rate lowered to 2.85%
On May 17, the central bank issued the "Notice on Reducing the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loans", with a clear policy of reducing the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points. Among them, the first housing provident fund loan with a term of more than 5 years is 2.85%, and the second set is 3.325%.
Expert Comments:
Yan Yuejin said that according to this, the interest rate of provident fund loans is the same as the previous loan interest rate of commercial banks, and the overall orientation of continuous easing has been maintained. This policy has a positive effect on the subsequent application of provident fund loans, the reduction of housing costs, and the support for housing consumption. In particular, the superimposed mortgage down payment policy will have a substantial impact on the subsequent home buyers' active entry into the market. The follow-up "low down payment + low commercial loan interest rate + low provident fund interest rate" purchase model will be formed, which will fully contribute to the activity of the real estate sales market this year and also help to comprehensively boost the recovery of the real estate market.
Jiang Han believes that this policy reduces the interest rate of housing provident fund loans and reduces the burden on buyers who use housing provident fund loans. At the same time, it also encourages more home buyers to use housing provident fund loans, further promoting the stable development of the real estate market.
Implement the "purchase instead of construction" destocking model
On May 17, the State Council's video conference on the delivery of housing was held. This meeting is highly consistent with the content of the recent rumors of acquiring new houses as affordable housing, and it also shows that this is a blockbuster policy in the near future.
The policy makes it clear that the relevant local governments should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of recovery and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties. In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. This is the core point of this policy, which can also be summarized as "buying instead of building".
Expert Comments:
Yan Yuejin said that in the near future, the acquisition of housing in Hangzhou Lin'an as public rental housing and the acquisition of housing in Dali in Yunnan as rental housing have become a key content. It has a positive effect on the digestion of stocks and the replenishment of increments.
The policy is a good thing for cities with high inventory, and cities with high inventory can use the policy to continue to promote the work of "purchasing instead of building", and the biggest benefit is that it will help to digest the inventory.
The focus of such policies is on the inventory of new homes of real estate enterprises, which is conducive to the improvement of sales data and financial conditions of real estate enterprises. A series of recent data shows that whether it is the inventory data of 100 cities or the data of 70 cities across the country, it shows that the market is under pressure. The superposition of such policies, namely the down payment of 15%, the reduction of the provident fund interest rate, and the purchase and construction model, has a positive effect on the rapid improvement and development of the capital of real estate enterprises.
Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that this new policy has released a positive signal and pointed out a clear way for new housing projects that are difficult to resolve. According to the monitoring data of the Zhuge Data Research Center, the destocking cycle in April was 18 months, 0.8 months longer than the previous month, and the pressure on the new housing market to destock has reached a high point. The government's acquisition of commercial housing as a guarantee of housing to protect the problem of commercial housing also has a certain positive effect on the delivery of commercial housing.
Last year, driven by the special bonds of the major guaranteed delivery buildings, the growth rate of completions continued to rise, but this year, the growth rate of completions remained negative for 3 consecutive months, and the delivery of buildings is closely related to people's livelihood.
Abolish the mortgage interest rate floor
On May 17, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued the Notice on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy for Commercial Personal Housing Loans. The policy is clear, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished.
The implication is that there used to be a minimum interest rate requirement for a mortgage or mortgage to buy a home, but now this interest rate floor has been removed. In layman's terms, in the past, the minimum interest rate in some cities was 3.5%, but under the current policy, even if the price is less than 3%, it is up to the banks themselves to decide. This is also an important embodiment of the marketization of mortgage interest rates.
Expert Comments:
Yan Yuejin said that the difference between this kind of policy and the policy of other cities in the past is that in the past, it was the differentiated policy made by the city itself according to the housing price index and the guidance of one city and one policy, but now it is actually a unified national layout, so it is a very in-depth and systematic policy, which has a positive effect on the continuous reduction of national mortgage interest rates, reducing the cost of buying a house, clarifying market expectations, and activating market vitality.
Jiang Han believes that the abolition of the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate means that commercial banks in various regions are no longer subject to the unified restrictions at the national level when setting personal housing loan interest rates, but can independently determine the personal housing loan interest rate according to the actual situation of the local real estate market and the regulation and control requirements of the local government. This will help local governments to better meet the housing needs of local residents.
The introduction of this series of policies will have a positive impact on the real estate market and home buyers. For the real estate market, these policies help to release the demand for housing and promote the active and stable development of the real estate market. For home buyers, these policies have lowered the threshold for home purchase and the cost of loans, reducing the financial pressure on home buyers.
Well-known economist Pan and Lin believe that the revival of the property market is a systematic process. The demand for real estate purchases depends on two aspects, one is the purchasing ability, the other is the willingness to buy, and the stimulating effect of the current policy is mainly to stimulate the willingness to buy, and the way is mainly concentrated at the credit level, reducing the mortgage interest rate, reducing the down payment of the mortgage, and the purchasing ability is more affected by the debt level, population structure, urbanization process and income level, so the current policies, in the short term, are stimulating the property market, can allow residents to buy more houses, but whether the current trend of real estate is fundamentally reversed in the long term, It remains to be seen whether this will be seen, or rather, greater efforts need to be made on the income side and social security.
Source: Dahe Daily Yu Video Editor: Jie Minggang