The county seat of Qingqing District, Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province. Photo by Nandu reporter Qiu Yongfen (Nandu data map)
The down payment ratio for the first home has been lowered to 15%, the interest rate on provident fund loans has been reduced, and the government has purchased some commercial housing for affordable housing...... On May 17, a series of blockbuster real estate policies were intensively introduced, which attracted huge attention. At 4 o'clock in the afternoon, the Information Office of the State Council held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council to introduce the relevant situation of the supporting policies for the work of guaranteeing the delivery of housing, and answered questions from reporters.
The local government can repossess the acquisition
Stock housing, idle land
He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, pointed out that at present, it is necessary to focus on the classification of the disposal of commercial housing projects that are difficult to deliver and are sold under construction, and fully support the financing and completion delivery of projects that should be continued, so as to protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers.
The relevant local governments should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of repossession and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties.
In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the prevention and disposal of debt risks of real estate enterprises, and solidly promote the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages, and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes.
He Lifeng demanded that the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises and financial institutions should be consolidated, overall coordination should be strengthened, the role of urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and re-lending policy should be given full play, and the guidance and support for cities and real estate enterprises should be strengthened, and the work of ensuring the delivery of housing should be effectively promoted in an orderly and effective manner.
The central bank will set up 300 billion yuan
Affordable housing refinancing
At the regular policy briefing of the State Council held by the State Council Information Office in the afternoon, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the State Administration of Financial Supervision and other departments, issued a work plan for the tough battle to ensure the delivery of urban commercial housing projects. The Ministry of Natural Resources plans to introduce policies and measures to properly dispose of idle land and revitalize the stock of land, and support local governments to properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of recovery and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help enterprises solve their difficulties.
The central bank said that it will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing reloan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of one year. Encourage and guide financial institutions to follow the principles of marketization and rule of law to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase completed and unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price for placement or rental affordable housing, which is expected to drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan.
The person in charge of the State Administration of Financial Supervision said that the "Notice on Further Giving Play to the Role of Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism to Meet the Reasonable Financing Needs of Real Estate Projects" will be issued in the near future to establish and improve the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. Since the establishment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism in January this year, as of May 16, commercial banks have approved the "white list" project loan amount of 935 billion yuan in accordance with the internal approval process.
Answer: Nandu asked
Ministry of Natural Resources: Support local governments to recover idle land for affordable housing at a reasonable price
Nandu: The Ministry of Natural Resources plans to introduce a policy to properly dispose of idle land and other stock real estate land, what are the main considerations, and what are the highlights of the policy?
Liu Guohong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources, supported local governments to proceed from reality and properly dispose of the idle residential land that has been transferred by means of recovery and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help enterprises solve their difficulties. At the same time, it promotes the economical and intensive use of land, prevents and resolves risks, and helps the high-quality development of real estate.
There are two main lines of policy measures: one line is to dispose of idle land in strict accordance with the law, and the other line is to increase support for the revitalization and utilization of stock land. The specific policy highlights can be briefly summarized in the following three aspects.
The first is to support the optimization and development of enterprises. The main purpose is to eliminate obstacles to development and construction, reasonably exempt from liability for breach of contract caused by natural disasters and epidemics, and allow enterprises to reasonably adjust planning conditions and design requirements in accordance with procedures to better meet market demand.
The second is to promote market circulation and transfer. It is mainly to give full play to the role of the secondary market of land, support the transfer of advance registration and "transfer with mortgage", and encourage transfer or cooperative development.
The third is to support local governments to recover land at reasonable prices. The main purpose is to support local governments to recover idle land at a reasonable price in accordance with the principle of "purchasing according to demand" for the construction of affordable housing. Localities are allowed to adopt a parallel "repossession-supply" approach to simplify procedures, handle planning and land supply procedures, and better provide facilitation services.
In addition, in order to implement the main responsibilities of city and county governments and strengthen overall coordination, cities and counties are required to establish a coordinated decision-making mechanism for disposing of idle and revitalizing the stock of land, improve decision-making procedures, improve administrative efficiency, and keep the bottom line of policies.
People's livelihood focus
Aspect 1: The down payment ratio has dropped to an all-time low
On May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a document saying that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial loans for first housing and commercial loans for second housing was adjusted to no less than 15% and not less than 25% respectively. Taking a loan of 1 million yuan as an example, the down payment for the first house has been reduced from the previous minimum of 200,000 yuan to the minimum of 150,000 yuan, and the threshold for buying a house has been reduced. Correspondingly, the amount of the loan from the bank was increased from $800,000 to $850,000.
"This is the lowest down payment ratio in history, and it is not only the most lenient policy in the history of mortgage lending, but also the most lenient policy of all types of home buying policies in recent years." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
"The down payment for the first home has dropped to 15%, which is the lowest level in history." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed that after the implementation of the policy, it means that the minimum down payment ratio of the first and second houses in all cities in the country can be lowered, which has a greater impact on the first and second-tier cities, and Beijing and other cities may greatly reduce the down payment ratio.
At the end of August 2023, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first housing in the country will be unified to no less than 20%. In December, Beijing lowered the minimum down payment from 35 percent to 30 percent, failing to enforce a minimum of 20 percent. Therefore, Zhang Dawei believes that how to adjust the down payment ratio in various cities still needs to be introduced by the competent departments of various cities.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that after the introduction of the policy of lowering the lower limit of the down payment ratio, it is expected that more cities will follow up and implement it, and there is also room and expectation for downward adjustment in first-tier cities, which will further reduce the threshold for home buyers.
Aspect 2: Reduction of interest rates on provident fund loans
In this policy, both provident fund loans and commercial housing loans have been adjusted.
The People's Bank of China issued a document saying that from May 18, 2024, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans below 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the interest rate of the second set of personal housing provident fund loans below 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.
Will home buyers who have already taken out a CPF loan be able to take advantage of this new interest rate concession?
On the 17th, the staff of the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center said that the interest rate of the existing housing provident fund loan will not be adjusted this year, and will be automatically lowered from January 1 next year. Lenders who are going through the CPF loan process also need to consult the specific department that handles the loan.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that the interest rate on the first housing provident fund loan with a term of more than 5 years was 3.1%, which was reduced to 2.85% this time. In the case of continuous interest rate reduction of commercial bank loans, the interest rate difference between the interest rate of commercial loans and the interest rate of provident fund loans is not large, so the interest rate of provident fund is inevitable.
Aspect 3: Commercial loan interest rates are expected to fall below 3%
The People's Bank of China also issued a document saying that the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished. Zhang Dawei believes that from a national point of view, except for a few first-tier and second-tier cities, the interest rate on the first home loan in most cities has dropped to about 3.45%, and some cities are even around 3.25%. This policy provides the possibility for the mortgage interest rate to fall further, and the interest rate of the first home commercial loan may move closer to 3% in the future. Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that the interest rate on commercial loans is expected to fall below 3%, falling to the lowest level in history, and the cost of loans for residents will further decline.
It is worth noting that the People's Bank of China also stressed that the provincial-level branches of the People's Bank of China guide the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing at the provincial level in accordance with the principle of city-specific policies, and independently determine whether to set the lower and lower limits of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans in each city within their jurisdiction according to the real estate market situation in each city within their jurisdiction and the regulation and control requirements of the local government. Banking financial institutions should reasonably determine the specific interest rate level of each loan.
Wang Qing's team from the Research and Development Department of Oriental Jincheng pointed out that the policy of "housing for living, not speculation" is not only applicable to the whole country, but also the policy tone that has been adhered to for a long time. For example, in terms of purchase restriction policy, in the future, first-tier cities will retain certain purchase restriction measures, and the reduction of mortgage interest rates will not "go hand in hand", and the reduction in first-tier cities will be relatively small. In the future, the regulator may urge commercial banks to reduce residential mortgage interest rates quickly through window guidance and other means, until the property market bottoms out and rebounds. At the same time, under the current market structure, there is no need to worry too early about the problem of housing prices that may be triggered by the new deal.
Settle accounts
Taking the provident fund loan of 1 million yuan for the first house as an example, choose the equal principal and interest repayment method, the loan term is 30 years, the monthly payment will be reduced from 4,270.16 yuan to 4,135.57 yuan, a decrease of about 135 yuan, and the total interest will be reduced from 537,300 yuan to 488,800 yuan, saving 48,500 yuan.
Expert interpretation
What do you think of the introduction of this real estate policy?
The country's determination to promote the recovery of the real estate sector and the economy has exceeded expectations
On today's real estate market has been introduced policies, Centaline real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei analysis pointed out that the central government's determination to stabilize the real estate market is very firm, as long as the real estate is unstable in the future, more policies will definitely be introduced, on the basis of the release of policies in various places, the national level for the real estate comprehensive promotion of policy relaxation, the country's determination to promote the real estate industry and economic recovery has exceeded expectations.
Zhang Dawei expects that the real estate market in May will be significantly better than in April, the market blockbuster policies continue, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone fundamental changes, and increasing confidence, preventing risks, and promoting transformation is still the direction of future policies. From the demand side, reducing the threshold and cost of buying a house is still the focus of the policy.
However, Zhang Dawei believes that the real estate market will need some time to recover in 2024 and is still in the process of gradually bottoming out. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the introduction of four blockbuster policies across the country today will have a great and profound impact on the market, which can be called the "four axes": that is, the down payment ratio of house purchase is reduced to 15%, the interest rate of provident fund loans is reduced, the lower limit of mortgage interest rates is cancelled, and the acquisition of inventory housing is used as affordable housing. Yan Yuejin believes that each of these policies has a very strong market shock, and will also help to further digest the inventory of subsequent new houses, which will have a positive effect on the boost of market confidence of home buyers and the overall improvement of the financial situation of real estate enterprises.
How to understand the key work of solidly promoting the delivery of housing and digesting the stock of commercial housing?
The focus of the policy is on the inventory of new houses of real estate enterprises, which will help improve the capital of real estate enterprises
According to public reports, the video conference on the work of ensuring the delivery of housing across the country mainly puts forward two ideas around the "bail-out of real estate enterprises". The first idea is to solve the problem of idle residential land. The relevant local governments should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of repossession and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties.
The second idea is to solve the stock of commercial housing. In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate.
Among them, the second idea opens up the relationship between commercial housing and affordable housing, which is also known as "purchase instead of construction". "This is the core point of this policy, which combines the acquisition and digestion of inventory housing and the new construction of affordable housing, which has a very good orientation." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
However, it should be noted that the "commercial housing" mentioned in this policy is mainly the new housing of real estate enterprises, not the second-hand housing of individuals. "The focus of such policies is on the inventory of new homes of real estate companies, which will help improve the sales data and financial situation of real estate companies." Yan Yuejin believes that the superposition of new policies such as the minimum down payment of 15% and the reduction of the provident fund interest rate is of positive significance for the rapid improvement and good development of the capital of real estate enterprises.
15 cities in Guangdong have canceled the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, will Guangzhou and Shenzhen follow?
Experts say that core cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen are more likely to cancel the lower limit of mortgage interest rates
After the release of the policy of "canceling the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate", some home buyers asked: "There have been discounts in mortgage interest rates in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places before, does the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate mean that the mortgage interest rate will be further lowered below the LPR?" ”
In fact, the central bank has left a "hole" in the new policy, that is, "city-specific policies". The new policy clarifies that all localities can independently determine whether to set the lower limit and lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans in each city within their jurisdiction (if any). The reporter learned from authoritative sources that whether Guangzhou and Shenzhen will implement the above-mentioned new policies is still to be clarified by the relevant policies issued by the city government departments. At the same time, it is also necessary to observe whether commercial banks choose to further reduce mortgage interest rates.
However, the reduction of the lower bound of interest rates is not new. Since the beginning of this year, many cities across the country have issued notices on the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate on the first home loan in accordance with the principle of "city-specific policies". Taking Guangdong as an example, 15 cities, including Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Jiangmen, have abolished the lower limit of the interest rate on first home loans.
After the removal of the lower limit on mortgage interest rates, the cost of buying a house has dropped significantly. According to data from the Guangdong branch of the People's Bank of China, the implementation level of the mainstream interest rate for first home loans in 15 cities in Guangdong is between LPR-40 basis points (3.55%) and LPR-70 basis points (3.25%), which is 20 to 50 basis points lower than the lower limit of the national policy interest rate for first-home loans. In this context, some people in the industry believe that core cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen are more likely to cancel the lower limit of mortgage interest rates. In terms of bank pricing, a person in charge of the personal loan business of a large state-owned bank told reporters that the mortgage loan business is a high-quality asset business, and at present, banks in Guangzhou are still willing to reduce interest rates to obtain more business. From the perspective of market supply and demand, there is room for further downward adjustment.
How do you view the implementation of supporting measures for the delivery of housing by the four departments?
At the national level, efforts have been made to deal with the risk of insured
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has implemented four key contents for the delivery of housing, clearly ensuring the "classified disposal" of the delivery of housing, emphasizing the promotion of the financing coordination mechanism, clarifying the mode of "purchasing instead of building", and making it clear that the stock of land should be disposed of.
Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, believes that from today, from the perspective of top-level policy design, the national level has begun to vigorously deal with the risk problems of real estate companies that have been insured. Zhang Hongwei pointed out that for example, through various measures such as reducing down payments and interest rates, purchasing stock houses, etc., the market recovery will improve, so as to fundamentally solve the problem of debt restructuring of real estate enterprises that have been insured, and the risks of insuring real estate enterprises can be gradually resolved. The projects of the insured-real estate enterprises are not only guaranteed to be delivered, but also the unstarted and even idle land must be revitalized.
In the future, after the risks of the insurers are resolved, the confidence in the real estate market will gradually be established.
Written by: Nandu Bay Finance Reporter Qiu Yongfen Liu Changyuan Nandu Reporter Chen Qiuyuan Comprehensive Southern +, Chinanews.com