According to media reports, South Korea's foreign minister visited China on May 13 and 14, the first visit to China in six and a half years since Moon Jae-in's then-South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa's visit to China in November 2017.
How to say it, South Korea's interaction with China has become less and less in recent years, not because of China's problems, but obviously because South Korea itself has not figured out how many pounds and taels it has.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration, in order to differ from its predecessor, has relied on the United States for foreign policy and has adopted a hard-line confrontational stance toward North Korea, in contrast to its previous policy of détente. However, instead of bringing substantial benefits to South Korea, such a policy has left the country in a dilemma both internally and externally, especially in the recent parliamentary elections.
In order to reverse the current predicament, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is likely to adjust relevant policies, especially repairing relations with China. During his visit to China in the past two days, ROK Foreign Minister Cho Doi-yeol obviously hopes to ease relations with China and resume economic cooperation.
China, Japan and South Korea originally had many complementary areas, and there was huge potential for economic cooperation. There were plans to establish a trilateral free trade zone, but it was never done. China has continuously strengthened its own shortcomings and reduced its dependence on cutting-edge technologies from Japan and South Korea. By 2023, China and South Korea will have a trade surplus, while the trade deficit between China and Japan has also been reduced by 85%.
Japan and South Korea are already geographically close to China and have the advantage of being close to the world's largest market, and their economic complementarity can at least maintain normal economic growth. However, the two countries chose to confront China, to form an alliance with the United States, which would naturally react economically. By 2023, Japan has fallen from third to fourth place in the world. In the two years since Yoon Suk-yeol took office, South Korea's GDP ranking has fallen from 10th to 14th in the world, regressing to the level of 11 years ago.
Ten years ago, South Korea was actively engaged in industrial integration with China and the possibility of occupying a place in the competition for industrial cooperation in East Asia, but what is the situation now? In fact, there is no room for concessions. South Korea, with a population the size of a province in China, has little chance of winning this competition unless the United States continues to provide support to South Korea. However, it seems that the United States does not have such a will, but whether South Korea should worry about whether it will become a victim of the United States in the future.
It can be said that the era of South Korea's trade surplus with China has ended, and now it has entered an era of trade deficit, and the scale will be further expanded. Therefore, we are far more important to South Korea than South Korea is important to us. In addition, there is limited room for improvement between China and South Korea.
In the high-tech and trade fields, such as automobiles, shipbuilding, semiconductors, etc., these fields are the pillar industries of South Korea, and they are also the fields that we will vigorously develop in the future. Therefore, fierce competition between the two countries is inevitable. Clearly, South Korea is gradually losing the competition. Even if Yoon Suk-yeol shows sincerity and hopes that we will cooperate in alleviating their economic and trade problems, there is only a limit to what can be achieved in practice. However, it is not too late, after all, distant relatives are not as good as close neighbors, and cooperation and trade between the two countries can still be carried out normally.
European countries know that economic cooperation with China is indispensable, and many Asian countries regard the United States as a good friend, while China is another good partner, and economic interests are always put first. Despite friction between India and China, the total trade between the two countries has exceeded the total trade between India and the United States, which has not affected the profitability of both sides.
South Korea and China are very close, and the relationship between the two countries has always been acceptable, but the situation on the Korean Peninsula is unclear and South Korea is overly dependent on the United States for support. Unfortunately, Yoon Suk-yeol failed to realize this, and perhaps only now realizes that in the eyes of the United States, South Korea will never be able to compare with Japan.
In fact, the key is to "recognize reality". In recent years, politicians such as South Korea and the United States seem to have been somewhat lost and have not really recognized reality. What is the reality? Look at China today, one of the P5, with nuclear weapons, the world's second-largest GDP and the world's largest trader in goods. In today's China, it is almost impossible to conquer by force, and economic suppression is basically unworkable. It's like facing a strong man, it's almost impossible to defeat him. The same is true for the United States, which will not be easy to deal with unless it is determined to die together.
From a realist point of view, China today should be seen as friend rather than foe. Rather than being an enemy of China, it is better to be friends than to lose if you can't win. Therefore, the US policy toward China in recent years is actually "not clear about reality" and engaging in some trade policies has failed to really weaken China, but has hurt itself. Perhaps because China's rise is too fast, the politicians in the United States have not yet adapted to it, and they have not had a clear understanding of their attitude towards China, and they are a little confused, so they frequently make wrong decisions.
However, South Korea is following the United States and "following suit," which is purely stupid and does not make clear its position. Between China and the United States, in any case, this game is not something that South Korea should actively intervene in.