【Disk Analysis】
U.S. stocks rose above 40,000 points, the global financial market boiled again, with the fall of gold, the differentiation of commodities, financial predators began to return to the stock market, and the stock markets of many overseas countries hit a new high, which is also a better financial environment for A-shares. The A-share policy in May is mainly focused on the real estate "destocking" related benefits, the hot plate is still mainly rotated, and there is no large trend market, this position still has to wait for the "ice-breaking moment" of the market.
With the gradual easing of policies, it is expected that market confidence will be boosted, driving sales to pick up, the industry bottoming is expected to be accelerated, and the valuation of the sector may be gradually repaired. In the short term, the real estate sector market will continue, and the market still has expectations for the further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, which may also play a certain role in supporting the follow-up plate market. In the medium and long term, the real recovery of the property market is a sufficient and necessary condition for the continuation of the real estate sector. In the face of the new situation of the real estate market changing from a seller's market to a buyer's market, the relaxation of restrictive measures in the property market has become the general trend, and it is expected that there is still room for the subsequent optimization of the property market policy in first-tier cities.
The three major indexes collectively opened low, and then rose and turned red, the stocks in the two cities rose more and fell less, and the theme plate performed strongly in the concepts of low-altitude economy, space-time big data, warehousing and logistics, and construction machinery, ships, household appliances and other sectors performed poorly. Low-altitude economic concept stocks opened actively, Xinchen Technology rose nearly 20%, Beiwei Technology rose by the limit, Changyuan Donggu, Sinochem Geotechnical, etc., followed suit, exploring the new format of split flying car intercity commuting + intra-city ferry application. In the five years from 2023 to 2027, the high-speed copper cable market will continue to expand at an astonishing compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, and the current domestic high-speed cable market has exceeded 10 billion yuan, and it is expected that the incremental market space for high-speed copper cables will be about 100 billion yuan in the future.
The real estate sector has been repeatedly active, I love my home for 6 days and 3 boards, the airport shares have a daily limit, the World Union Bank, Binjiang Group, etc. have risen highly, and the person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development introduced the relevant situation of supporting policies for ensuring the delivery of housing, and answered questions from reporters. The power sector fluctuated and rose, Gansu Energy rose by the limit, Star Power, Xichang Power, etc., as a flexible support power source in the policy dividend period, coupled with the current downward coal prices, the profitability of thermal power enterprises increased elasticity. Recently, a mobilization video conference was held to support the deployment of the "two-fold" construction, requiring the issuance and use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and high-quality support for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, so as to provide strong support for promoting Chinese-style modernization.
The MR concept is volatile and strong, Bojie shares, Yashi Optoelectronics, Lehman Optoelectronics, Wufang Optoelectronics, etc., Apple's first headset product Vision Pro has officially passed China's 3C certification, benefiting from the launch of MR-related products, the market size is expected to reach 19.1 billion US dollars by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 66.2% from 2022 to 2025. The PEEK material industry is in a period of rapid development, with the PEEK market size reaching 5.6 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.23 billion yuan in 2029. Low-altitude economic concept stocks continued to rise, with more than 10 shares such as Xinchen Technology and Zongshen Power, and Andawell and Xinyan shares rising by more than 10%, and a leading group for low-altitude economic development led by municipal leaders was established. Explore the new format of split flying car intercity commuting + intra-city ferry application.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index is still dominated by underwater shocks on Friday, and it is no wonder that such a disk is no longer strange this week, and the index is still going down little by little, but on the whole, there is no significant pullback. In addition to one news at noon: for households who take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to no less than 25%. Although the real estate sector did not rise and fall in the afternoon, it also shows that the investment direction of the policy side is in real estate. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3120 points.
The ChiNext index was still suppressed by the 5-day line on Friday, with no obvious signs of a breakout, but the gap below has not been filled, and it seems that this position will be left for next week to be resolved. At present, the market has fully priced in pessimistic expectations, and the structural market is still expected to continue. In the future, with the stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy and the support of comprehensively deepening reform policies, investment in A-shares can be more active. The external market has continued to reach new highs, and A-shares will not fall sharply even if they do not rise! Next, pay attention to whether the GEM index can stabilize above 1850 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
Against the backdrop of a slight decline in A-share performance in the first quarter, the growth of large consumption and technology earnings has become a bright spot, and the central bank's bond purchase measures are expected to improve the market valuation level. The first-quarter financial report shows that the performance of A-shares has declined slightly year-on-year, but the industry structure is still worth paying attention to. Industries such as food and beverage, automobiles, and home appliances, represented by large consumption, all achieved double-digit growth in profitability, showing that the consumption sector still has a certain degree of resilience. In addition, the electronics industry in the technology sector has shown significant signs of profit recovery, and the growth rate of communication earnings has also performed well. In the future, as the central bank enters the secondary market to implement the purchase of long-term treasury bonds, it is expected to promote the downward trend of interest rates, increase market liquidity, and further improve the valuation level of the market.
The concepts of copper cable high-speed connection, PEEK materials, and low-altitude economy in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of household appliances, household goods, and construction machinery are relatively large sectors with a relatively large net outflow of funds. Riding a bull and watching a bear found that the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Lin'an District, Hangzhou issued the "Announcement on the Solicitation of Suppliers for the Acquisition of Commercial Housing as Public Rental Housing", which will acquire a batch of commercial housing for public rental housing. The Politburo meeting at the end of April proposed that with the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the mainland real estate market, it is necessary to study the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.
Recently, many cities have intensively introduced "trade-in" and purchase restriction relaxation policies, and the policy guidance is clear. Recently, Hangzhou and Xi'an have completely canceled purchase restrictions, and only two cities in the north where the domestic purchase restriction policy is still strictly enforced, are expected to gradually relax at the pace of "small steps and fast running". The "trade-in" policy of multi-place collection and storage needs to be paid more attention to. Represented by many cities in Jiangsu Province and Zhengzhou City, state-owned enterprises under the government have purchased existing residential buildings for use as rental housing, and residents need to purchase new houses with a higher total price with the proceeds from the sale of houses.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 50 cities have expressed their support for housing "trade-in", and it is expected that more cities will introduce relevant supporting policies in the later stage to further promote the release of replacement demand. In addition, there have been recent rumors in the market that the relevant departments are considering a plan for local governments to buy the unsold housing stock to relieve the inventory pressure. The policy tone is mainly to resolve risks, reduce the cost of buying houses, thresholds, improve the financing environment of real estate enterprises and other favorable measures are expected to continue to be released, and it is expected that the downward trend of the real estate market will gradually slow down, but it will take time to truly stabilize and recover.
Dragged down by the real estate industry, the current domestic economic recovery is not smooth, the social finance credit data is not good, the sluggish land finance restricts infrastructure investment, the PPI continues to hover at a low level, and the recovery of the manufacturing industry is also facing twists and turns. In this context, the importance of stabilizing real estate in stabilizing the economy has been further highlighted. It is expected that the downward trend of the industry is expected to gradually slow down, and it will take time for the market to recover vividly.