Every oil price adjustment has aroused widespread concern in society. As a bulk commodity, the price of gasoline directly determines the cost of travel and affects the lives of ordinary people. Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices can be described as a "roller coaster" trend, first ushered in a sharp rise at the beginning of the year, and then three consecutive slight downward adjustments, until May 15 finally appeared the largest drop of the year. Now the next round of oil price adjustment will be carried out on May 29, according to the latest trend forecast, oil prices are expected to continue to "release" downward.
Rolling oil price adjustment mechanism
The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices follows a "rolling" price adjustment mechanism, which is adjusted according to the trend of the rate of change of the price of a basket of crude oil. Every 10 working days is a price adjustment cycle, and according to the rise and fall of crude oil prices during the period, the domestic refined oil prices will be raised or lowered respectively. When the change value of crude oil price accumulates more than 4%, it will rise by 25 yuan per ton; When the cumulative change value exceeds 8%, it will be increased by 25 yuan for every 4% increase. In the same way, when the price of crude oil falls, the decrease corresponds to the increase.
The original intention of this mechanism is to cushion the impact of fluctuations in international crude oil prices on domestic oil prices. However, in reality, there is inevitably a lag, resulting in domestic oil price adjustments often "seriously falling behind" international oil prices during periods of large fluctuations in crude oil prices. At the beginning of this year, when international oil prices rose significantly, domestic oil prices were slow to keep up with the pace of adjustment, causing dissatisfaction among car owners.
The third round of decline of the year is coming
In fact, with the successive rounds of downward adjustments, the gap between domestic oil prices and the international market has been narrowing. Until May 15, the price of refined oil finally experienced the largest drop in the year, with a reduction of 235 yuan/ton, which is almost the sum of the previous two reductions. Affected by this, the price of No. 92 gasoline in some areas has fallen below the 7 yuan/liter mark, returning to the "7 yuan era", which has taken a "reassuring pill" for car owners.
Despite this, the difference in oil prices across the country is still wide. Taking No. 92 gasoline as an example after the price adjustment on May 15, the price in some areas such as Liaoning and Yunnan still exceeds 8 yuan/liter, which is significantly different from the low-cost areas in East China and other regions. This difference is not only due to the difference in sales taxes and fees in different places, but also related to the differences in logistics, transportation and other costs in different places.
Judging from the situation from last Monday to today, international crude oil prices have been under pressure as a whole, and have fallen by about 0 so far. ７９％。 According to the calculation of the refined oil price formation mechanism, if the decline finally reaches 4%, the domestic oil price is likely to usher in a downward adjustment. The specific situation depends on the change of the decline, and the current trend is expected to reduce the range of about 40 yuan/ton.
If it is successfully lowered by then, it will be the fourth "decreasing cycle" of domestic oil prices since March 19. There is no doubt that the reduction in oil prices will once again reduce the travel burden of the majority of car owners. However, judging from the current statistical period, there are still 12 days before May 29 to adjust prices, which is enough to accommodate further fluctuations in international oil prices. Whether it will be a slight or large downward adjustment at that time, we need to continue to wait and see the trend of crude oil prices.
How does the industry view the decline in oil prices?
Every oil price adjustment will trigger heated discussions in the society. After all, rising energy prices will not only increase the cost of enterprises and individuals, but also may crowd out investment and consumption in other areas, which will have an adverse impact on economic development.
It is worth noting that the recent decline in commodity prices is considered an important buffer against the recent easing of inflationary pressures. If domestic oil prices can follow the downward trend of international crude oil prices, it will not only directly reduce the living burden of the people, but also help maintain the overall stability of prices and inject help into the steady growth of the economy.
Judging from the reaction within the industry, relevant companies generally believe that the moderate decline in oil prices will not have much impact on their operations in the short term. The reason is that the current domestic oil prices are still at a significant premium compared with the international market, and the downstream costs of enterprises are still under significant pressure. Companies can only benefit if the downward trend in oil prices continues and is magnitude.
However, for high-fuel consumption industries such as air transportation, petroleum, and chemicals, the decline in oil prices is undoubtedly a big positive. Taking the aviation industry as an example, as fuel costs account for a large proportion of airlines' operating costs, the decline in oil prices will have a direct impact on airlines' profit levels. For example, based on the proportion of fuel of domestic airlines of about 20%, for every 10 yuan/ton, airlines can save about 2% of expenses on average.
From this point of view, if oil prices show a large downward range, it may bring breathing space for high-fuel consumption companies. Combined with the current business difficulties faced by enterprises, the decline in oil prices will also play a certain role in alleviating the income and expenditure reduction of enterprises. At the same time, due to the different dependence of different industries on crude oil, the impact of oil price reduction is also different, and relevant companies need to evaluate the pros and cons of the downturn.
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