For the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, a number of fund companies have deployed ultra-long-term treasury bond ETFs

National Business Daily

2024-05-17 21:07Posted on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Huang Xiaocong Every editor: Ye Feng

According to the information on the official website of the Ministry of Finance, the bidding for the issuance of 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (phase I) (30 years) began today, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan.

The reporter noticed that since last year, more and more fund companies have laid out ultra-long-term treasury bond ETFs, for example, on May 15, China Southern Asset Management just reported a SSE ultra-long-term treasury bond ETF, and earlier, Huatai Barry SSE ultra-long-term treasury bond ETF, Bosera SSE 30-year treasury bond ETF, E Fund SSE 30-year treasury bond ETF and many other products have been reported, and some have been approved for issuance.

The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds began today

On May 13, the General Office of the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on Announcing the Relevant Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds in 2024, clarifying the relevant arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024.

According to the arrangement, the maturity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to be issued this year is 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, all of which are paid on a semi-annual basis, of which the tender for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (phase I) (30 years) in 2024 began today, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan.

In addition, the issuance plan also shows that the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were first issued on May 17 and completed in mid-November.

The fixed income department of Huatai Pineapple Fund said: "The disclosed issuance plan shows that the concentrated supply pressure of special treasury bonds has been significantly eased, and the issuance time spans from May to November, with a monthly supply of between 80 billion and 180 billion yuan." In addition, the supply of treasury bonds in June, August and October will increase accordingly, but considering the large amount due in June, the pressure on the supply of treasury bonds in a single month can basically be staggered with the traditional tight time points such as the end of the quarter and the big month of tax payment, so as to alleviate the further tension of bank funds. ”

HFT Fund also said: "If the issuance is smooth, the issuance scale will be less than 200 billion yuan every month, and the issuance rhythm is indeed much slower than the market's previous expectations." Since the monthly issuance scale of ultra-long-term treasury bonds was only tens of billions of yuan in the past, the smooth issuance of special treasury bonds is conducive to reducing the impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds on the ultra-long-term interest rate bond market. ”

In terms of the impact on the bond market, HFT Fund believes that "the implementation of the special treasury bond issuance plan is conducive to stabilizing the supply expectation of ultra-long-term interest rate bonds, considering that the pace of issuance is relatively flat, the actual impact on the market may not be too large, and it may only form a certain disturbance to the yield of ultra-long-term treasury bonds at individual issuance points." However, the pace of local government bond issuance this year is slow, and the pressure on the supply of government bonds is still large, so it is necessary to pay attention to the pace of government bond issuance. ”

Pengyang Fund pointed out: "The issuance process reflects the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, the current liquidity environment is suitable, and with the advancement of the issuance plan, it is expected to see the implementation of reserves and interest rate policy tools." In addition, the issuance of special treasury bonds will help improve the supply and demand relationship in the treasury bond market, alleviate the current shortage of long-term high-quality assets, and enhance the liquidity of the ultra-long-term treasury bond market. ”

Layout of multiple fund companies

From the perspective of the fund industry, the reporter noticed that since last year, more and more fund companies have laid out ultra-long-term treasury bond ETFs, among which Pengyang China Bond - 30-year treasury bond ETF was established earlier, but it is less than a year ago, and the fund was established on May 19, 2023.

Subsequently, a number of products such as Huatai Barry SSE Ultra-Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF, Bosera SSE 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF, and E Fund SSE 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF have followed up and reported. And on May 15, China Southern Asset Management also just reported a CSE ultra-long-term treasury bond ETF.

Among these products, Bosera SSE 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF has not only been approved, but also launched on March 20, 2024.

Although more and more companies have been deployed, some fund companies said they would not follow up: "We will not report again at present." ”

Institutional investors are the main holders

So, what kind of investors are buying this kind of product?

Judging from the 2023 annual report disclosed by Pengyang China Bond - 30-year Treasury Bond ETF, institutional investors hold nearly 75% of the shares, and the top 10 holders include a number of brokerages and multiple insurance products.

It is worth noting that although this type of product is a low-risk product, it will also fluctuate up and down, and from the performance point of view, the returns of Pengyang China Bond - 30-year Treasury Bond ETF and Bosera SSE 30-year Treasury Bond ETF have been negative in the past month.

However, the fund manager of the second fixed income investment department of Bosera Fund said: "The policy interest rate and deposit interest rate may fall further, and the corresponding ultra-short-term interest rate such as repurchase may follow the decline, and guide the short-term interest rate to continue to decline, and the interest rate curve may continue to steepen in the short term, and after the short-end interest rate is further down, the downside space of the long-end and ultra-long-end will be opened, and more attention can still be paid to the allocation value of ultra-long bonds." ”

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