So far, it is basically certain that the plan of the Philippines to send fishing boats to storm the blockade line of Scarborough Shoal, which was hyped up a few days ago, is a farce of thunder and rain. There are two reasons for this judgment. First, the actual actions taken by the Philippines, the "protagonist" of this farce, are completely inconsistent with what they say.
Beforehand, the Philippines hyped that between the 14th and 17th, the so-called Philippine non-governmental organization "This Is Ours", funded by the United States, would send hundreds of fishing boats and a fleet of 1,000 people to break through the blockade line placed by the Chinese coast guard at 12 nautical miles from the baseline of Scarborough Shoal's territorial waters and place buoys to help the Marcos Jr. government stand up for its illegal claim to the waters.
But in fact, on the 15th, there were almost no large fishing boats in the fleet of the Philippine side that came to the scene, all of them were small crab fishing boats, and the number of participants in the event also shrank significantly. The group's official version is that 200 people participated, but judging from the footage of the scene, this number is far from reaching.
Filipino fishing boats
What's more, the Philippine fleet did not hit the Line of Actual Control (LAC) of the Chinese Coast Guard, as they had advertised, but stopped when it reached a position more than 50 nautical miles from Scarborough Shoal. The two patrol ships sent by the Philippine government, which claimed to be "escorting" the fishing boats, were parked directly at a distance of 50 nautical miles.
Nothing did a good job except to leave a few photos of them floating on the water from Western journalists. This morning, Philippine official ships began to retreat with Philippine fishing boats in the direction of the Philippine mainland, and have now retreated 15 nautical miles. The "civil society" told the media that it had sent supplies to the fishing boats and successfully completed the intended target tasks.
To sum up, this US-funded organization has put on a play with gongs and drums in waters where there is no sovereignty dispute at all. Of course, considering that the country of the Philippines often backtracks, it cannot be ruled out that this organization wants to show weakness and kill a "return gun". But why is it said that the Philippines is really going to stop there this time?
China Coast Guard vessel
This brings us to the second reason, that is, the mastermind behind this farce, the United States and Japan are not taking any further action now. In this matter, the attitude of the United States is very obvious, that is, it does not want to get into trouble. Before the Philippines planned this farce, the United States and the Philippines had just concluded the so-called "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise.
Since then, the USS Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group has also been patrolling the waters around Scarborough Shoal. However, after "This is Ours" announced that it was going to send fishing boats to force its way into Scarborough Shoal, the Roosevelt immediately ran away with the strike group. Yesterday, the Roosevelt had sailed all the way to the vicinity of Wan'an Bank, which is more than 1,200 kilometers away from Scarborough Shoal, and today it simply went straight to Singapore and announced that it would stop at Changi.
Such a running speed almost put the big words "I don't want to get into trouble" written on my face. The United States is the most important support for the Philippines to make trouble in the South China Sea, and now that the Marcos Jr. government is rushing to the front to provoke, but the United States is running faster than anyone else, then Manila naturally does not have the confidence to make things even bigger.
USS Roosevelt
The situation is similar in Japan. A few days before this round of provocations by the Philippines, Japan actively cooperated in propaganda and even said that it would accelerate the signing of the so-called "reciprocal access agreement" between the Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military to strengthen military cooperation.
But when the Philippines did take action, the only thing Japan did was to send a so-called "survey ship" in the direction of the East China Sea to approach the waters around the Diaoyu Islands about 60 nautical miles, and then it was driven away by our coast guard and supervisors.
Japan's move is not so much to support the Philippines as it is to take advantage of the Philippines' use as "cannon fodder" in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, this small measure is destined to fail. The Philippines will certainly not make any major disturbances if it fights alone in the South China Sea.
Japanese survey ship
If the United States and Japan make a move, Marcos Jr. may be willing to take a risk, but these two "allies" jumped higher than anyone else beforehand, and slipped faster than anyone else afterwards. Under such circumstances, it is not surprising that the Philippines simply stopped doing it. From the perspective of impact, the farce jointly planned by the United States, Japan and the Philippines not only failed to help the Philippines stir up the situation in the South China Sea, but made other ASEAN countries more firmly on China's side.
The Philippines sent a team of fishing boats to Scarborough Shoal to make trouble, and the selected days were from the 14th to the 17th. China, on the other hand, held a new round of joint working group meetings on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in Thailand from the 13th to the 15th, and the meeting promoted the third reading of the text of the "Guidelines".
In addition to deepening consensus with ASEAN countries, the purpose of this meeting is more important, that is, to let the countries in the region collectively see who is undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea, and also let the countries in the region see how "fierce and inward-looking" the two extraterritorial forces that are constantly trying to reach out to the South China Sea.
China and ASEAN countries held the 43rd Joint Working Group Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in Thailand
At the same time as the Philippines is provoking in the South China Sea, China can pull ASEAN countries to Thailand for such a meeting, which in itself has already sent a signal to the world: the actions of the United States, the Philippines and Japan in the South China Sea are unpopular, and Southeast Asian countries have collectively chosen to side with China. If other ASEAN countries other than the Philippines stand in line, then it is time for the South China Sea to change.
However, considering the current situation of the United States, the Philippines and Japan, where "one operation is as fierce as a tiger, and the record is 0.5 per cent", it is unlikely that there will be real friction between China and the Philippines, or between China and the United States and China and Japan, in the South China Sea. After all, as mentioned above, as soon as the situation in the South China Sea is tense, the aircraft carrier Roosevelt will slip away faster than anyone else.
Without the support of the United States and Japan, the Philippines' maritime power is simply not enough for China to plug its teeth. And China has more cards to play in the South China Sea than a "military card". Among them, the best and most effective card should be island filling. After reassuring other ASEAN countries, if nothing else, the South China Sea may usher in another round of "nature's miracles".
Ren-hsien
However, at present, it is difficult to say whether this round of "ghostly work" will take place in Scarborough Shoal, Ren'ai Jiao, Xianbin Jiao, or other places. In addition to filling the island and developing infrastructure, it is also a good choice to "slap the Philippines in the face" in an international court. Recently, China exposed the status quo of the broken boat on the beach of Ren'ai Jiao, where the Filipino soldiers left behind unscrupulously discharged and dumped garbage into the water, destroying the ecological environment.
The wrecked ship itself is also seriously corroded, which has caused a very big negative impact on the ecology of Ren'ai Jiao and its surrounding waters. Under such circumstances, if China takes the Philippines to an international tribunal and then logically tows the ship away, it will also make the Marcos Jr. government suffer the consequences.
The more the Philippines moves blindly, the more opportunities China has to deal with it. Every provocation by Marcos Jr. is to put an extra shovel of dirt on the "grave" of his political life.
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