NIO's market value evaporated by 7 billion overnight! U.S. stocks plunged 8% after the new car declared war on the Model Y

Car stuff

2024-05-16 19:14Published in Beijing Automotive Creators

Car stuff

Author | Words

Editor | Zhihao

Just after the release of the new car, the market value of NIO's US stock market evaporated by 7 billion.

Che Dongxi reported on May 16 that after Weilai released its second brand and unveiled its first car L60, Weilai's U.S. stock price fell nearly 8% to $5.3 per share (about RMB 38 per share), and its market value evaporated by $960 million (about RMB 7 billion) in one day.

▲NIO's U.S. stock price plummeted 8%

A few days ago, Ledao L60 officially opened pre-sale, Li Bin followed Lei Jun's steps, and the price of Ledao L60 is 30,000 cheaper than Tesla Model Y.

▲乐道L60

At this morning's brand exchange meeting, according to relevant media, Li Bin said that Ledao Automobile will not release orders and delivery information, and will only use it internally. In addition, Ai Tiecheng, president of Ledao, said that NIO never sent order posters, but last night's order was far beyond expectations.

Although the number of orders was sold, Li Bin officially announced that the new car will be officially launched in September and deliveries will start in September.

In other words, although this affordable model, which is known in the industry as "saving sales", has finally been unveiled, it cannot be launched immediately and delivered immediately after release.

According to previous news, Weilai has been preparing for the Ledao plan for 3 years, but it still can't do the fast landing speed of Xiaomi.

And at present, the domestic new energy competition has been very fierce, Tesla Model Y has sold an average of 37,600 cars per month in the past three quarters, which means that Ledao L60 has an average monthly sales of more than 40,000 units, in order to surpass Model Y.

However, Ledao L60 may have some gaps with Model Y in terms of suspension and technology, and Ledao L60's price and endurance advantages are put on the same benchmark Tesla Model Y domestic models, and the competitiveness may not be obvious enough, for example, Ledao L60 can indeed beat Xiaopeng G6 in these two aspects, so it is still unknown whether it can exceed the sales of domestic benchmark models.

Whether Ledao can really become the key to NIO's sales growth still has to wait for market verification.

1. The stock price plummeted by 8%, and the market value evaporated by 7 billion It will take time to prepare for 3 years

As of the close of the U.S. stock market on May 15, local time, NIO's share price "dived", falling nearly 8% in one day.

The latest market value of NIO's U.S. stock is about 11.12 billion US dollars (about 80.2 billion yuan), compared with nearly 12.1 billion US dollars (about 87.2 billion yuan) the previous day.

▲NIO's market value evaporated by 7 billion in one day

In other words, the market value of NIO evaporated by 7 billion yuan in one day.

To a certain extent, this reflects the view of the capital market.

And the reason for this reaction may also be related to the delivery cycle of Ledao's first car. The L60's biggest enemy may not be the Model Y, but time.

Previously, Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Weilai, said that the Ledao brand of Weilai began to brew as early as 10 years ago, and preparations were officially launched 3 years ago. In other words, NIO had the idea of affordable models as early as the beginning of its establishment, and began preparations three years ago, but it was not delivered after the release.

On the other hand, the Xiaomi car next door has been in real significance for 3 years, from preparation to delivery of new cars.

But on the other hand, the Ledao brand is also facing a very important problem, that is, the brand awareness of Ledao needs to be expanded, and the Ledao team still has a lot of work to do in order to make the brand of Ledao become a well-known brand within 4 months.

Second, the monthly sales of 40,000 yuan can surpass the Model Y At the same time, it faces the challenge of Xpeng Zero

In addition to the delivery period of at least 4 months, judging from the limited information, Ledao L60 does not have the upper hand in comparison with competing products.

▲乐道L60

Although, compared with the world's best-selling mid-to-high-end new energy SUV Tesla Model Y, Ledao L60 does have advantages in terms of energy consumption, range, price and other values.

▲Tesla Model Y

For example, the pre-sale price of the Ledao L60 is 30,000 yuan cheaper than that of the Model Y. The pre-sale price of the Ledao L60 starts at 219,900 yuan, while the Model Y starts at 249,900 yuan. In addition, the Ledao L60 has a power consumption of 12.1kWh per 100 kilometers. The Model Y is 12.5 kWh. In addition, the standard range of the L60 is 555km, which is 1km more than the Model Y, and the longest range version can reach 1000km.

But from a product point of view, the Ledao L60 also has some compromises.

For example, the front suspension of the Ledao L60 is a MacPherson structure, while the Model Y uses a double wishbone suspension.

The trunk space of Tesla's Model Y is not just as simple as adding 117L of storage space, but pays attention to the ultimate engineering in terms of lightweight. And, of course, the Model Y's one-piece die-cast rear body, these unique materials and processes are all advantages of the Model Y.

In terms of sales, with a monthly sales of 40,000 units, Ledao L60 can catch up with the Model Y.

Although there is a view in the industry that Tesla's plummeting sales are related to the discontinuation of products, and the configuration of Model Y has been difficult to meet the market, Tesla's Model Y sales are still strong and is still the best-selling SUV in China.

According to the relevant data of the platform that understands the car emperor, in the past three quarters, Tesla Model Y reached the peak of sales in December last year, selling more than 60,000 units a month, although sales fell to 26,000 units in April this year, but in fact, Tesla Model Y sales have not been lower than 20,000 units in this time period, with an average of 37,600 units sold in a month.

▲Tesla's Model Y sales in the last three quarters

If NIO wants to surpass the Model Y, it must at least sell more than 40,000 units a month.

In addition to the Model Y, the Ledao L60 also faces other challenges aimed at Model Y models, and the Xpeng G6 is one of them.

▲小鹏G6

Comparing the attributes of the two sides, taking the Xpeng G6 entry 580 long range Plus version as an example, the body size of Xpeng G6 is 4753/1920/1650mm, which is slightly smaller than Ledao L60 (4828/1930/1616mm), and the energy consumption per 100 kilometers is 13.2kWh, which is not as good as Ledao L60, but in terms of battery life, Xpeng G6 entry range is 580km, which is 30km more than Ledao L60.

In terms of selling price, the guide price of Xpeng G6 starts at 199,900 yuan, which is 20,000 yuan cheaper than the pre-sale price of Ledao L60.

Based on the above information, Xpeng G6 reached the highest monthly sales of 8750 units in the last 3 quarters in November last year, but whether Ledao L60 can reach the highest monthly sales of Xpeng G6 will have to wait for time to prove.

In addition, there are a number of models with similar positioning, the guide price of Leap C11 starts at 148,800, and the guide price of Zhiji LS6 starts at 229,900, which is more advantageous than the price of Tesla Model Y from 249,900, but it is still difficult to match in terms of sales, and it is also a competitor of Ledao L60.

▲Comparison of monthly sales of models comparable to Tesla's Model Y

Conclusion: Ledao will be the key to NIO's sales increase

According to relevant media reports, Li Bin has set a sales target for NIO in 2024: that is, the maximum monthly sales volume will sprint to more than 20,000 units, the annual sales target will be 230,000 units, and the gross profit margin should be maintained at the level of 15%-18%.

In April this year, NIO's sales soared, with 16,000 units delivered in April, a year-on-year increase of 134.6% and a month-on-month increase of 31.64%. A total of 46,000 units were delivered throughout the year. Although the sales volume situation is improving, there is still a big gap between the monthly and annual delivery targets.

If Ledao L60 is not delivered until September, it may have to go through a production capacity ramp-up period, and the sales volume in the first few months may not be too much, which has a limited effect on the sales of the year.

View original image 97K

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

•