The pension adjustment in 2024 has been written into this year's government work report, from the solemn commitment made in the government report in March, more than two months have passed now, the majority of retirees are anxiously waiting, everyone has an expectation, that is, I hope that this year's pension adjustment plan can be implemented as soon as possible, so that retirees can eat peace of mind.
Except for a small number of people with higher pensions, there are certain savings or supplementary pensions when they are in office, most of the retirees are dependent on pensions to live, due to the continuous development of the social economy every year, the price level is also rising, everyone hopes that their pensions can get a reasonable increase.
After the full coverage of the pension insurance system, overpayment and long-term payment have become the basic principles of calculating and paying pensions for retirees. However, there are also some retirees, especially those working in non-state-owned units, flexible employment personnel, due to the nature of the work, the payment period is not very long, most of the payment period is only 15 to 20 years, and the payment base is not high, basically according to 60% of the average monthly salary of employees in the previous year, so this part of the people belong to the lowest pension group among retirees.
Some people may ask, pay more, pay more for a long time, this is the best embodiment of fairness and justice, you pay for a low number of years, the payment base is low, and you should get a relatively low pension. There is nothing wrong with this statement, but it should also be compared with the actual employment in China. In fact, these people have a low payment period and a low payment base, and the corresponding employment environment in the mainland is not entirely caused by personal reasons, nor is it a true reflection of personal will.
Although each of us has a different nature of employment units, different ways of employment, and the way of socialized employment is also diversified, private enterprises are enterprises, and the work of flexible employment personnel is also a way of employment, and although these positions are not as glamorous as government institutions and institutions, they are also needed by the society.
Our society does not rely entirely on government agencies and institutions to support its operation, and it is difficult for state-owned enterprises to support the entire economic development system. If everyone only goes to work in government agencies and public institutions, then this society will not be able to function effectively, and it will be incomplete, and it will even lead to social paralysis.
In this sense, there is no distinction between high and low work, no distinction between good and bad posts, and every post is a part of maintaining the effective operation of society. Therefore, the pension only relies on overpayment and long-term payment, which seems fair, but due to the differences and drawbacks inside and outside the system, people outside the system are often not valued by the society.
In order to make up for the pension gap caused by various factors, the state began to adjust and increase the pension of retirees in 2005, so that retirees have a reasonable level of improvement. Coupled with the pension adjustment in 2024, it has achieved 20 consecutive increases, which is a milestone in the history of pension adjustment for retirees in the mainland.
Judging from the timing of the announcement of the pension adjustment plan in recent years, the announcement of the pension adjustment plan in 2023 is basically in May. For example, the pension adjustment plan for 2023 was announced on May 19, the pension adjustment plan for 2022 was announced on May 16, the time for 2021 was April 7, 2020 was April 10, 2019 was March 20, 2018 was March 23, and 2017 was April 13.
From the above point in time, in fact, from the announcement of the pension adjustment information in the government work report in March, April should be the preparation period, May belongs to the window period, and June belongs to the implementation period. Now it has entered the middle of May, it can be said that the window period of pension adjustment has been opened, according to the law of the past few years to analyze, in these days, the pension adjustment plan will be released if there is no special situation.
'The pension adjustment ratio in 2023 is 3.8%, and the gap between my forecast and the adjustment ratio in 2023 this year is not very large, it should be between 3.5% and 3.8%, of course, this is just a conclusion drawn from personal analysis, and the final result after the announcement of the plan shall prevail.
From the perspective of the scope of adjustment, all retirees who have gone through the retirement procedures and received pensions before December 31, 2023 are subject to the adjustment and increase of pensions in 2024. In recent years, the way of adjustment has been the continuation of quota adjustment, peg adjustment, and appropriate tilt, which not only reflects fairness, but also has a certain incentive, and I believe that there will be no change this year.
Since since 2016, the proportion of pension adjustments has been decreasing year by year, unlike the previous 10 years, which has remained at the level of 10%. But now the number of retired personnel is almost twice as much as 10 years ago, and the average pension base has also doubled compared with 10 years ago. It is estimated that most people's monthly pension increase is between 80 yuan and 150 yuan, and those who increase more than 200 yuan per month are those who have paid for a longer period of time and have a higher pension.
To sum up, according to the time point of the announcement of the pension adjustment plan in previous years, the pension adjustment window in 2024 has been opened, and in the next few days, the announcement of the pension adjustment plan is very close. In the past few days, I will also pay close attention to the website of the national human resources and social security department, and I will immediately introduce and share it with you if there is news.