For a long time, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, often said on his lips: "If we are not the first in the world, we have no value in existence." This determination and courage to look down on the world allowed CATL to defeat all competitors at home and abroad and was awarded the title of "King of Ning".
But unlike the "arrogant" in the past, Zeng Yuqun has become more modest and low-key in recent times. Many people have found that in recent months, no matter how large or small enterprises, whenever they cooperate with CATL, Zeng Yuqun will personally appear at the signing ceremony.
Ten years in the east of the river, ten years in the west of the river. Under the overcapacity of power batteries, the "Ning Wang", who used to sit at the door of the house and wait for car companies to queue up to get the goods, has a much lower attitude. The upsurge of technological change in another industry has made "Ningwang" even more anxious.
Recently, the enthusiasm of car companies for solid-state batteries has become unprecedentedly high, and peers have also announced big news one after another, and "Ning Wang" finally can't sit still.
Solid-state batteries do not contain electrolyte, and they have more advantages in terms of energy density, charging speed and service life, which is regarded by the industry as the development direction of the next generation of power batteries, and is also regarded by many companies as an opportunity to counterattack the two traditional power battery giants, CATL and BYD.
On April 28, CATL announced for the first time the R&D and mass production schedule of all-solid-state batteries, officially announcing that it will be produced in small batches in three years.
On May 9, CATL once again said on the investor platform: "As one of the semi-solid-state batteries, the company's condensed matter battery has an energy density of up to 500Wh/kg, and is in the process of cooperative development of civil electric manned aircraft projects, and the company will also launch a vehicle-grade application version of the condensed matter battery in the future." ”
However, at the 2023 annual performance meeting two months ago, Zeng Yuqun was still cautious about solid-state batteries, "There are still many problems to be overcome in the technical route of solid-state batteries, and they are still far from becoming commodities." Under the great enthusiasm of the industry, "Ning Wang" still couldn't resist the upsurge of the trend and decided to end.
01. The fire of solid-state batteries cannot be extinguished by "Ning Wang".
As the world's largest EV battery manufacturer, CATL's R&D and mass production progress of all-solid-state batteries has always been the focus of the industry. But on the eve of the hot discussion in the market, solid-state batteries have always been a narrow door, so narrow that even Zeng Yuqun almost lost confidence.
For a long time, in the most lively solid-state battery field, "Ningwang" has not had an obvious voice, so that some CATL investors have questioned with concern: "What progress has CATL made in the research and development of solid-state batteries and semi-solid-state batteries?" When will mass production be achieved? Is there a company that is ahead of your company in the research and development of solid-state batteries? ”
In view of the landing process of cutting-edge technology, Zeng Yuqun once summed up the "three routes", namely the technical route, the product route, and the commodity route. First of all, see whether it is technically established and whether it can be opened; secondly, the safety and reliability after it becomes a product; Finally, we have to calculate the cost, after all, it is too expensive to sell.
In terms of solid-state battery research and development, Zeng Yuqun has said that CATL "has spent 10 years". However, after a thorough study, the technical expert who graduated from the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences with a doctorate in condensed matter physics came to the conclusion that it is still too difficult to conclude that the current solid-state battery is still in the first step of the technical route breakthrough stage.
He believes that solid-state batteries are still facing many basic scientific problems that need to be broken through, there are some obstacles, and mass production is very difficult. ”
In other words, the industry is exaggerating and hyping about solid-state batteries, and it's time to brake. However, this still did not dampen the market's enthusiasm for solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries.
At present, a large number of battery technology routes are still in competition, and car companies may overtake in corners as long as they bet on the route. Despite the difficulties, car companies still choose to embrace semi-solid-state batteries.
According to Wall Street statistics, in the first four months of this year, the loading volume of semi-solid-state batteries reached 1,138.8MWh, exceeding the 798MWh in the whole of last year. Although the installed capacity of semi-solid-state batteries is currently less than 1% of the power battery market, the short-term market explosion is enough to show its greater market potential.
Suddenly, the shareholders who originally speculated in liquor, artificial intelligence, and AI have become solid-state battery "experts" and began to intensively study the stock prices of solid-state battery-related concept stocks.
Of course, the loudest is the most marketing-oriented car rim. In the past two months, SAIC Zhiji L6 has officially announced that it has become the first mass-produced model equipped with a "quasi-900V ultra-fast charging solid-state battery", and the CLTC range will exceed 1,000 kilometers, which has shocked the industry's jaw. After being "rolled" by SAIC, other peers also set goals to be outdone.
Chongqing Tailan New Energy, a solid-state lithium battery company, said that the first "automotive-grade" all-solid-state lithium metal battery with an energy density of up to 720Wh/kg no longer contains any liquid electrolyte. Car companies have spared no effort to promote the new car poster, indicating eye-catching slogans such as "really coming", "all-solid" and "100% solid-state electrolyte".
It's not hard to see why car companies are doing this. No matter how much gold the so-called "solid-state battery" has, for marketing and traffic considerations, the story of the solid-state battery is exciting enough, and car companies can't help but frantically play the "solid-state" concept.
A person in the power battery industry said to "City Boundary": "It doesn't matter whether car companies really have products, and it doesn't matter whether they can launch models equipped with solid-state batteries on time, the most important thing is to strongly bind the concept of solid-state batteries to the brand." ”
So, what exactly is a real solid-state battery? And why can it bring hope to the whole industry for new energy vehicles? The so-called solid-state battery refers to the positive and negative electrode materials of the battery connected to the solid electrolyte, and the solid electrolyte uses solid materials, and ions shuttle between the solids, and the semi-solid state is between the solid state and the liquid state.
For the majority of users, it is also a battery, but the electrolyte contained in it is not liquid, and there is an obvious gap in experience. Compared with liquid electrolytes, the most obvious advantage of solid-state batteries is that they are not easy to burn and explode, and they are very safe. Theoretically, it can solve the problem of spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles, which has been criticized, and car companies have a reason to "blow water".
Another important reason is that it can solve the problem of energy density of batteries in one fell swoop and solve consumers' range anxiety. Compared with the mainstream liquid batteries on the market, the energy advantage of solid-state batteries can easily kill all market products.
Based on the data of 2023, the maximum energy density of CATL's NCM811 battery can reach 245Wh/kg, and the maximum energy density of BYD's ternary lithium battery can reach 219Wh/kg.
However, once the solid-state battery technology is successfully broken through, its energy density can easily reach more than 300-400wh/kg, and the theoretical energy density is as high as 700Wh/kg, which can be called a dimensionality reduction blow to all mass-produced batteries on the market.
Therefore, although it will take time for real large-scale industrialization and commercialization, the technical research of solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries has become the general trend, which is not much controversy in the industry.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at the 2024 CIBF concurrent forum: "Referring to the development history of liquid lithium-ion technology, it is very important to establish a technical route for all-solid-state batteries. "Looking at the world, solid-state batteries are also one of the development strategies of the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United States in the international market, and are the preferred solution for their next-generation batteries.
All of this makes CATL, as the overlord of liquid batteries, feel a potential threat: if it does not take the lead in capturing the fortress of solid-state batteries, the city established by "Ningwang" in the field of electric vehicles may be lost.
02. The battery overlord turned around to "compete"
In the power battery industry with tens of billions of investments, it is not easy to be a good cycle catcher, but Zeng Yuqun has done an excellent job.
The rapid rise of CATL in just ten years is inseparable from Zeng Yuqun's daring to gamble and fight. In the early years, there was a perennial painting in his office - "gambling is stronger", these five words reveal Zeng Yuqun's character and business thinking, which means that people must have enough courage to do those things that have huge risks.
Founded in 2011, CATL can stand in the C position of the power battery stage, and the key is inseparable from two "battles". For the first time, it was CATL that bet heavily on the dividends of the ternary lithium battery technology route. The second time was when Japanese and Korean companies chose the route of soft packs and cylindrical batteries, while CATL broke through with prismatic batteries and gained a firm foothold in domestic and foreign markets.
Nowadays, with the rapid outbreak of the solid-state battery industry chain from 0 to 1, the continuous breakthrough of solid-state and semi-solid-state battery materials and application technologies, even if it is as strong as "King Ning", it is difficult to sleep on the past credits.
Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, once bluntly said: "At present, the energy density of liquid lithium batteries can reach 350Wh/kg, but it is difficult to increase it further, while all-solid-state batteries have excellent performance in terms of energy density and safety, and have great potential." ”
As car companies and battery factories challenge new technologies, some of the original technical problems are being solved little by little. It is clear that semi-solid-state batteries have shown advantages in terms of increased energy density.
At present, China has made remarkable progress in the field of semi-solid-state battery technology, and the energy density has reached the level of 350Wh/kg to 500Wh/kg, and the industrialization progress is accelerating.
However, due to the high cost, semi-solid-state batteries are not an optimal alternative to liquid lithium-ion batteries. Industry players still need to work hard to overcome the difficulties.
However, under the trend of technological difficulties being overcome, CATL will inevitably start to worry about how long the dividends of being the overlord of liquid batteries can last.
To a certain extent, CATL's dominant position in the market can be said to be due to the fact that its staking of large domestic and foreign customers has been basically completed, and the barriers to domestic and foreign markets are high enough. But in the field of solid-state batteries, CATL has not yet fully captured this fortress.
The successful breakthrough of solid-state batteries is not only a single product, but the entire industrial chain level. Once the solid-state battery revolution is really successful, it means that CATL's original industrial chain advantages are no longer there.
According to the different electrolytes, the current solid-state battery technology is mainly divided into four mainstream technology paths: oxide, polymer, halide and sulfide solid-state batteries. Wu Kai said, "If technology and manufacturing maturity are used as an evaluation system (scored on a scale of 1-9), CATL's all-solid-state battery R&D is currently at the level of 4. ”
However, if you want to build a strong business moat, "King Ning" must think of what others dare not think and challenge others not to do. After publicly revealing its attitude, "Ningwang" picked the most difficult path, it took the sulfide route with a clear banner, and firmly believed that sulfide would be the first to break through the bottleneck and move towards mass production.
Before CATL, sulfide electrolytes were mostly chosen by overseas solid-state battery companies, and few domestic players chose them. As for the question of when solid-state batteries will be mass-produced and hitchhiking, players also have their own timetables, such as Changan, which claims to achieve solid-state battery loading and mass production in 2025.
According to public information, Japanese and South Korean companies such as Toyota and Panasonic have been developing all-solid-state batteries with sulfide as electrolyte since 2008, and it is expected that they will be mass-produced from 2027 to 2028. CATL roughly stands on the same timeline as Japanese and South Korean companies in the industrialization schedule of all-solid-state batteries.
"CATL aims to reach a 7-8 score by 2027, which means that all-solid-state batteries can be produced in small batches by then." Wu Kai said. However, on the issue of mass production, Wu Kai maintained a certain degree of caution, "There will still be cost and other problems." ”
Wu Kai believes that in order to realize the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries, it is still necessary to solve four major problems: solid interface, lithium metal anode application, unstable sulfide electrolyte in air and high synthesis cost, and all-solid-state battery production process.
At present, there are still many difficulties that "Ningwang" needs to overcome, and it will take some time to truly achieve the industry's attention. If you want to pick the fruits of the victory of solid-state batteries, you can't do without accumulation. Before the large-scale production of solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries, car companies still have to calm down and share the fruits of liquid batteries with "Ningwang".
It's just that it is no longer a market for battery shortages, and under the battery surplus, downstream car companies have a greater right to speak.
03, the aura of "King Ning" has faded
On April 25, the first day of the Beijing International Auto Show, Zeng Yuqun also actively showed his face and appeared in the live broadcast room of Li Bin and Zhou Hongyi. Facing this bigwig behind the car circle, Li Bin bargained in front of many netizens, "Reduce our costs a little, so that our profits can be higher." Zeng Yuqun immediately responded with a smile, "We are making bricks."
It is no secret in the industry that the batteries sold by CATL are at a high price. Over the years, in order to maintain its leading edge, CATL has spent a lot of money on R&D expenses, which is also the confidence for it to dare to sell at a high price. According to the 2023 financial report, CATL's R&D expenses will reach 18.356 billion yuan, crushing the R&D expenses of many second-tier manufacturers.
While announcing the mass production schedule of solid-state batteries, CATL is still optimizing the route of liquid lithium batteries. At the Beijing International Auto Show, CATL released an upgraded version of the Shenxing PLUS battery, which has a range of 1,000 kilometers and a fast charging capacity of 10 minutes and a range of 600 kilometers.
However, under the dire situation of new energy vehicles, it is already the voice of all customers that CATL can further provide cheaper power batteries. At the beginning of this year, CATL had to lower the price of lithium iron phosphate cells with 173Ah VDA specifications from 0.6 yuan/Wh to 0.4 yuan/Wh.
From the perspective of market position, CATL firmly occupies the top spot in the battery industry, and to a large extent, it still depends on the support of downstream large customers. In the view of the above-mentioned power battery industry practitioners, "if the support of downstream OEMs is lost, the battery defense line established by CATL will be broken." ”
Therefore, since August last year, CATL has been vigorously promoting cheaper and better performance lithium iron phosphate 4C super-rechargeable batteries in China to meet the needs of more car companies. CATL has previously introduced that since its release, Shenxing Battery has launched 4 models, and will continue to launch more than 50 new cars this year.
In terms of installed capacity in the global market, up to now, CATL has ranked first in the global market for six consecutive years, with a global market share of about 30% and a domestic market share of about 50%. However, the market value of "Ningwang" still has not regained the trillion mark.
After the end of 2019, in just two years, CATL rose from less than 50 yuan/share to a record high of 377.65 yuan/share at the end of 2021, and the highest market value once reached 1.6 trillion yuan. But in 2023, the giant has suffered a significant decline in its share price, and as of the close of trading on May 16, its latest market capitalization is 878.4 billion.
For Zeng Yuqun, the era of "trillions of Ning kings" riding the dust is gone. The power battery rivers and lakes led by him are becoming more and more full of gunsmoke.
Author | amuse
Edit | Sun Chunfang
Operations | Liu Shan