I don't know if you have noticed that South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Doi-yeol has a detail in this visit to China, that is, he only talked about cooperation, and basically did not respond positively to the political mutual trust between China and South Korea. When Foreign Minister Wang Yi asked South Korea to properly handle Taiwan-related issues, Zhao Duilie did not give any commitment. #军史观察团#
It can be seen from this that the seemingly friendly statements that South Korea attaches great importance to relations with China and that South Korea will not pursue a zero-sum game of "you lose and I win" mentioned during his visit to China are actually very empty.
Of course, such foreshadowing soon surfaced.
As soon as Cho Tei-yeol left China after his visit to China, Cho Kyung-tae, a member of the South Korean People's Power Party, clamored that he would visit Taiwan in the near future to attend Lai Ching-te's inauguration ceremony. According to Zhao Qingtai told South Korean media, during his visit to Taiwan, he will also meet with Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde respectively. It is said that Cho Kyung-tae himself can be called a close confidant of Yoon Suk-yeol and is very close to Yoon Suk-yeol. It is difficult to say that he has nothing to do with Yin Xiyue.
Even Yonhap News Agency reported that Cho Kyung-tae's visit to Taiwan is likely to have a negative impact on the China-Japan-South Korea summit agreed to be held in late May. Whether it is Yoon Suk-yeol or Cho Kyung-tae, it is impossible for them not to know the consequences of the trip.
South Korea's contradictory approach can only show that Yoon Suk-yeol has recently shown some moves to correct the direction of diplomacy, and I am afraid that it is more of a show to save his declining approval rating. In terms of relations with China, Yoon Suk-yeol only hopes that China and South Korea will maintain trade cooperation, but geopolitically, good relations with the United States and Japan are still a diplomatic priority for Yoon Suk-yeol.
Cho's avoidance of political commitments during his visit to China and his focus on cooperation have exposed the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's intentions. But if South Korea is unwilling to fulfill its political commitments on Taiwan-related issues and other issues, or if it can't help itself, then the two countries obviously lack the conditions to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation.
As Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, China-ROK relations should pursue harmony without difference. If South Korea cannot rule out external interference in its relations with China, the two countries will not only fail to consolidate mutual trust, but may also reduce such mutual trust again. Since Yoon Suk-yeol took office, South Korea has repeatedly made wild remarks on issues related to Taiwan and the South China Sea, and if South Korean lawmakers visit Taiwan again, the improvement of relations between the two countries will only become more unlikely.
Objectively speaking, Yoon Suk-yeol's cronies are obviously not visiting Taiwan to support the DPP authorities. If Zhao Qingtai's trip is not a so-called personal act, the reason behind it is most likely that Yoon Suk-yeol is in order to cater to the United States' demand to "support Taiwan".
In addition, when Mr. Cho presented the results of his visit before leaving China, he made some murmurs on the North Korean nuclear issue, complaining about the weakening of China's so-called active role. Subsequently, Cho made it clear that South Korea's expectations of China on the North Korean nuclear issue have been lowered.
Everyone knows that China is an indispensable and important force for maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula. The fact that the ROK has gone so far as to show that it is disappointed with China when the situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming more and more intense can only show that during the talks between the Chinese and ROK foreign ministers, Cho Doi-yeol most likely put forward unreasonable demands such as asking China to exert pressure on the DPRK, and because the Chinese side has adhered to the established position, the ROK side seems to be a little angry.
We cannot judge whether the imminent visit of South Korean lawmakers to Taiwan is a retaliatory action by the Yoon Suk-yeol government, but this incident reflects that, first, the South Koreans have not faced up to the peace and difference proposed by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and it may be difficult for China-South Korea relations to get out of the predicament in the short term. Second, Yoon Suk-yeol still has illusions about the United States. Therefore, even if Sino-South Korean relations deteriorate again due to the visit of South Korean lawmakers to Taiwan, Yoon Suk-yeol believes that South Korea can rely on the United States to deal with it calmly.
From the background, the news that South Korean lawmakers will visit Taiwan comes at a time when the Biden administration announced new tariffs on a package of Chinese products. Perhaps, in the view of the Yoon Suk-yeol government, based on the background of the great power game, South Korea has the space to eat both ends of the world between China and the United States.
It is understandable that Yoon Suk-yeol wants to maximize his interests in foreign policy, but Yoon Suk-yeol should never use the Taiwan issue, China's reddest red line, as a bargaining chip. If Yoon Suk-yeol goes too far, the United States, in order to avoid getting involved, may treat South Korea as an outcast at any time. China previously tightened the export of automotive urea to South Korea, and the South Korean side immediately couldn't sit still. In the face of China's wrath, why does South Korea think it can afford it?
Generally speaking, Yoon Suk-yeol sent his foreign minister to visit China to discuss cooperation on the one hand, and acquiesced in or supported South Korean parliamentarians to visit Taiwan on the other hand, which is actually a manifestation of Yoon Suk-yeol saying one thing and doing another, or saying that there is no bottom line.
Therefore, although it cannot be directly said that there is no chance for China-South Korea relations, as long as Yoon Suk-yeol still cannot rule out US interference in developing relations with China, such opportunities may become more and more slim.