Today's market opened low, and then has been oscillating below yesterday's closing point, almost sideways in the morning, and there was a significant drop in the afternoon, closing in the green, and the K-line is a medium yin line. The gap of 3123 points was filled in the afternoon, and the market has fallen below the 10-day moving average today, and the 5-day moving average turned downward, and the disk began to weaken, and the market will test the support of 3100 points.
The gem opened higher today, and there was a shock and fall at the 5-day moving average at a slight rush, and then slowly fell, closing the same green disk, and the K-line is also a yin line. At present, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average of the GEM are dead forks, and the short-term will focus on the gains and losses of the 20-day moving average tomorrow.
Today's top gainers are horse racing concepts, rental and sales rights and real estate services, while the top decliners are securities, AI pharmaceuticals and brokerage concepts. Since brokerages are a popular sector. Therefore, the adjustment of brokerages directly affects the trend of today's market. In the future, we still have to pay attention to the performance of the brokerage sector.
In terms of hot sectors, today is mainly concentrated in real estate, especially real estate services. Real estate services have been hot lately, and the market has been paying attention to it. Judging from the news, real estate across the country has been loosened purchase restrictions, and the lifting of real estate purchase restrictions has led to a rapid rise in the number of housing transactions in the secondary market. The increase in the number of housing transactions has also increased the profits of real estate service companies, which is the basic logic of why the real estate service sector in the stock market has risen sharply.
At present, as of May 9, a total of 50 cities across the country have relaxed the purchase restriction policy about 150 times, including Chengdu, Hangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Xiamen, Nanjing, Suzhou, Xi'an and other 23 cities have completely canceled the purchase restrictions. First-tier cities such as Beijing has relaxed the purchase restriction outside the Fifth Ring Road, Shanghai has relaxed the purchase restriction for single people, Shenzhen has shortened the social security payment period for non-registered people, multi-child families can buy one more suite, and Guangzhou has relaxed the purchase limit for housing over 120 square meters.
In addition to the relaxation of purchase restrictions, many cities are also relaxing and optimizing housing policies to varying degrees. Up to now, more than 50 cities across the country have expressed their support for housing "trade-in", in addition to measures such as relaxing the provident fund loan policy, housing purchase subsidies, and canceling the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial loans for the first home.
Looking at the whole country, in addition to Hainan Province, only the core cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Zhuhai and Hengqin still retain a certain housing purchase restriction policy. Second-tier cities have basically realized that they should be relaxed, which has opened up the imagination space for the comprehensive relaxation of purchase restrictions in the four first-tier cities.
On May 9, Hangzhou issued a new policy for the property market, completely canceling purchase restrictions. This is the third time in half a year that Hangzhou has optimized and adjusted the property market policy, and it is also the first time in nearly 8 years that Hangzhou has completely canceled the purchase restriction policy. According to data from a research institute in Hangzhou, compared with the daily average in April, the number of second-hand housing inquiries on the first day of the new deal increased by 54%; The number of new purchases of second-hand houses increased by 91%; The number of new home inquiries increased by 96%.
Today, according to the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Lin'an District, Hangzhou City, issued the "Announcement on the Solicitation of Suppliers for the Acquisition of Commercial Housing as Public Rental Housing", a batch of commercial housing will be acquired for public rental housing.
Judging from the feedback from the first-line intermediary stores, the consultation on the adjustment of the first home accounted for the highest proportion, followed by the consultation of many foreign buyers to buy a house, as well as the consultation on the popular "old and dilapidated" home purchase. Previously, on April 29, Chengdu lifted the purchase restriction policy in the whole city, and buyers are no longer subject to many restrictions, and can buy houses according to their own needs and wishes.
At present, the agency believes that after the high-level meeting sets the tone, a new round of policy outlets has arrived, the policies of core first- and second-tier cities continue to be optimized, and more supportive policies can be expected to be introduced in the future. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are already in the bottom range, the subsequent downside is limited, and the valuation of the real estate sector is at a historically low level. Property stocks usually react faster than fundamentals recover, so the bottom of property stocks is largely clear.
At present, from the perspective of the market, the capital market has given a swift response under strong policy expectations. Today, the real estate service sector and the rental and sales sector with the same rights rose together. According to the steady progress of the policy in the market outlook, we can still pay close attention to the corresponding sectors.
Let's talk about the whole car again. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the total sales of automobiles in 2024 will be 2.359 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; In April, NEV production and sales totaled 870,000 units and 850,000 units, up 35.9% and 33.5% y/y, respectively, with a market share of 36%.
Exports to 504,000 units in April increased 0.4% m/m and 34% y/y. It is worth mentioning that judging from the situation of the passenger car market in April, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in April were 1.532 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 6.364 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%.
In terms of new energy vehicles, sales in the Chinese market increased significantly month-on-month in March due to the early price reduction promotion that began at the end of February 2024, which stimulated vehicle sales to rise more than expected, and fell back in April due to trend changes in previous years. However, at the end of April, China introduced a trade-in subsidy policy, according to SMM estimates, the trade-in is expected to bring 800,000 new energy vehicles to the annual demand, concentrated in the second half of the year.
After the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance and other seven departments issued the "Implementation Rules for Automobile Trade-in Subsidy", many places have quickly followed suit, and have also issued their local policies and details on promoting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in implementation plans.
On April 9, Shanghai issued a notice on the "2024 Implementation Rules for the "Trade-in" Subsidy for Old Cars in Shanghai". On April 29, the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods in Guangzhou" was released on the official website of the Guangzhou Municipal Government. The plan mentions that car trade-in is supported. We will continue to implement the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for new energy vehicles, and optimize the restrictions on the licensing indicators of fuel vehicles in light of the actual industrial situation in Guangzhou. Recently, the Qingdao Municipal People's Government also issued the "Qingdao City to Promote Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in Implementation Plan", which mentioned that it is necessary to promote the multiplication and development of passenger cars, increase the attraction and cultivation of core parts enterprises, plan to build a professional park for the automotive electronics industry, and create new competitive advantages for commercial passenger vehicles.
Policies have been introduced to support the trade-in of automobiles, which has greatly stimulated the consumption of automobiles. Before the specific data for May came out, the capital market had already started to rise in advance. On Tuesday, the entire automobile sector had a sideways trend before the breakout. New upside is expected to be opened. Therefore, the market outlook is worth paying attention to.
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Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Yan Dan
Producer: Gu Jie
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