The artificially created opposition is ultimately no match for the truth and the laws of the industry.
In some voices, Toyota is "the most opposed to new energy, especially BEVs", and China is "the most radical big country to promote new energy", which should have been spearheaded.
"China bets on new energy vehicles, other countries don't play with you, and finally it becomes an island."
"Europe and the United States first proposed dual carbon, and then China engaged in new energy vehicles, and the result fell into the pit."
Similar remarks are not uncommon, but the world's largest auto market has ushered in the support of the world's largest car companies. "I don't think China will become an island," said Hiroki Nakajima, a director, executive officer, vice president, and chief technology officer of Toyota Motor Corporation.
At the same time, Toyota is also accelerating its layout in China, not only in line with the trend of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Chinese market, increasing plug-in hybrid investment, but also deepening the "new energy 2.0" - intelligent cultivation through cooperation with Tencent and other measures.
Bigotry needs to be vigilant, and vacillation needs to be supported.
China's auto industry has always been one and the same side of extreme thinking as "changing lanes and overtaking" on the new energy track, blind and arrogant paranoia, and wavering in total denial.
Just as Toyota's new energy strategy and the remarks of relevant executives are always trapped in the two extremes of "opposing electrification" and "capitulating electrification", they are always trapped in two extreme and distorted understandings.
The quick tongue of some onlookers has never been the same logic as the way of business management and the policy of a big country's industry. After all, the rational return of the Chinese market, and the long-termism of companies such as Toyota, all point in the same direction - insight and respect for market demand.
Is China an island? No！
"Oil vehicles are the pillar of profits, and new energy is not profitable at all," similar words were expressed from the mouths of more than one car company executive, and the Beijing Auto Show became a channel for them to vent their boredom.
Is New Energy Wrong? Is pure electric wrong?
Perhaps, Toyota, which sold 3.7 million HEV hybrid vehicles worldwide in 2023, reached a new high of 11.23 million units in total sales, and doubled its net profit to RMB 230 billion, has the capital to evaluate this issue.
"I don't think China is an island that develops BEVs, I think we can create the future together." As the leader of Toyota's technology, Hiroki Nakajima's judgment is resounding.
If you think this is just Toyota's courtesy to the host during the Beijing Motor Show, you are very wrong. Because of Hiroki Nakajima's conclusion, there is also a detailed analysis; Because Toyota is still increasing its weight in China.
After all, Toyota is still sticking to its goal of selling 3.5 million pure electric vehicles.
"China is leading the world in BEV, and I would like to salute China here." Toyota's diversified electrification path and optimism about the growth prospects of pure electric BEVs have never been mutually exclusive, "but I think the choice should be based on the energy situation in the region." This varies from region to region. Of course, the number of BEVs will increase, and Toyota's sales will reach 3.5 million units in 30 years. ”
After all, Toyota's CTO attributes pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and diesel-electric hybrid to the development of electrification technology, which is inseparable from the progress of battery technology.
Toyota did not achieve the world's first pure electric vehicle, and Hiroki Nakajima did not reject pure electric vehicles because of this, but had a sense of joy of "seeing the hunting heart": "It is precisely because of the development of BEVs in China that the battery competition in the automotive industry has begun. As an engineer, it's great to see that battery levels have improved due to competition. ”
As Tatsuro Ueda, Executive Officer of Toyota Motor Corporation and General Manager of China Headquarters, Chairman and General Manager of Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd., added, "China is a fast-growing market for carbon neutrality. But our goal is not to convert to BEV, but to be carbon neutral. ”
The long-term goal is to go through the surface form of BEV, PHEV and HEV, and reach the foundation of electrification technology, the essential goal of energy saving, emission reduction and carbon neutrality.
After all, the "island" Chinese market in some remarks has been added more chips by Toyota.
In the future, Toyota will launch more plug-in hybrid and pure electric models in China.
How do you see the future of plug-in hybrid PHEVs? In the face of the author's question after the interview, Hiroki Nakajima will definitely launch more plug-in hybrids: "Toyota does not have so many PHEV products in China, but on a global scale, there are actually a lot of PHEVs in other regions. Why aren't there too many PHEVs introduced in China? It is related to the strategy discussed internally, and this part will be strengthened in the future. ”
From the Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime to the Crown Sport-type PHEV released in November 2023, Toyota has laid out a number of models in the plug-in hybrid field, which are developed based on the new architecture, not the old P2 architecture plug-in hybrid.
In the future, Toyota will pay more attention to technology research and development in China.
"In order to produce good products, TMEC changed its name to IEM and is committed to electrification." Tatsuro Ueda said, "A Chinese development system that satisfies Chinese customers. We have also changed our R&D system in order to achieve a product-centric sales approach that sells products instead of increasing the number of brands. ”
Compared with the previous Toyota Changshu R&D center TMEC, IEM is more focused on the Chinese market, focusing on intelligence and electrification, forming synergies with the new R&D building in Jiading, Shanghai.
In the future, Toyota will strengthen cooperation with more Chinese companies, such as the establishment of BTET, a joint venture with BYD, to accelerate the progress of localized products and vehicle technology; This year's auto show once again announced the cooperation with Tencent, which will focus on AI large models, cloud computing, big data, intelligent terminals and ecosystems.
"Toyota's global performance is very good, so it can ignore China," such statements are not worth refuting in the face of reality. So why does Toyota place so much emphasis on the Chinese market?
In addition to the size, manufacturing system and supply chain of the Chinese market itself, Toyota's new energy strategy has fundamental commonalities with the characteristics of the Chinese market from the perspective of corporate culture.
China is a diverse and grand market, and Toyota has taken a diversified business path. The grand market can be launched by Tesla and new car-making forces to launch a rapid offensive against the pioneer crowd and establish new development directions such as electrification and intelligence; The follow-up popularization of intelligent electric vehicles to a wider mainstream population requires domestic BYD, Geely, Chery, Chang'an Great Wall, foreign Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other car companies to continue to use a step-by-step approach.
Cars are not consumer electronics, and "smart electric vehicles eliminate traditional fuel vehicles, just like smartphones eliminate Nokia feature phones", is actually a false proposition slogan. The transition of the consumption habits of the mainstream population, the more the car, which is related to personal safety and subject to supporting facilities, the slower the change process.
The hybrid champion will make a plug-in hybrid
The decline of Japanese cars in the Chinese market is inseparable from the plug-in hybrid technology path beating the gasoline-electric hybrid.
From 2023 to 2024, plug-in hybrids and range extenders will make great progress, not only directly replacing pure gasoline vehicles, but also drowning out the volume of gasoline-electric hybrids and dimming the light of pure electric vehicles.
In 2023, the domestic sales of pure electric vehicles will be 6.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and the plug-in hybrid and range extender units will be 2.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 84.5%. The sales ratio of pure electric and hybrid vehicles will be 8:2 in 2020, close to 2:1 in 2023, and 6:4 in 2024, which is expected to be flat in some months in 2024, and 1:1 between pure electric and plug-in hybrid in 2025.
In the past April, the cumulative retail sales of pure electric vehicles in the first four months were 1.435 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while plug-in hybrids (including range extenders) were 1.013 million units, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%.
So, as the absolute champion of 25 million gasoline-electric hybrids sold since 1997, will Toyota be embarrassed when talking about plug-in hybrids?
"Toyota has made some achievements in hybridization, but Toyota's PHEV products are not particularly abundant now," from the Beijing Auto Show Hiroki Hiroshima's exclusive interview and communication, not so much embarrassing, but more sincere and reflective, first admitting the shortcomings of Toyota's plug-in hybrid in the Chinese market.
"Toyota will definitely do PHEVs," said the attitude, "Personally, I think that the P in PHEV is not Plug-in, but Practical and practical." ”
In addition to the previous new energy strategy in the Chinese market, which favored plug-in hybrids, batteries are also an important limiting factor, "PHEV batteries have a larger capacity than HEVs, and Toyota is developing its own batteries, and will use new batteries for PHEVs in the future." ”
After all, in the new energy strategy released by Toyota in 2019, Toyota's electric technology from gasoline-electric hybrid HEV, plug-in hybrid PHEV, pure electric BEV to hydrogen fuel cell FCEV is based on the development of HEV, and the development path of small battery and large battery is different after all. In this way, we will strengthen the competitiveness of our PHEV products. ”
However, Hiroki Nakajima still turned the topic back to Toyota's insistence on looking at the problem from the essence of the problem.
In the strategic dimension, it is diversified and "all-round".
"Toyota's multi-path approach is to provide different solutions depending on the energy situation in each region. We will develop HEVs, PHEVs, practical BEVs, and FCEVs in all aspects. ”
In terms of technology, it is "the essence of energy conservation and emission reduction in all paths of electrification".
Looking at plug-in hybrid and long-term development models in terms of emissions, and even achieving zero emissions with synthetic fuels: "PHEVs decide how long to run in PHEV mode and how long to run in BEV mode based on consumer demand, and the ratio of the two modes is different, and the cost will be different. Since PHEVs are equipped with engines, they emit CO2 just by driving. But the important thing is that we can use biofuels such as e-fuels, synthetic fuels, and hydrogen energy to achieve true carbon neutrality. ”
Therefore, solid-state batteries, which are progressing smoothly according to the plan for mass production in 2027, will be the strongest support for Toyota to move from plug-in hybrid to pure electric vehicles in the future.
From a business point of view, Toyota has not avoided the sensitive issue of "whether new energy vehicles can make money".
"Whether the time-to-market of BEVs is related to earnings, the answer is no. Toyota will decide on the investment based on whether there is actual demand. "Obviously, Hiroki Nakajima represents Toyota's attitude, even if it pursues profits like Toyota, when doing electrification projects, it will put user needs first, rather than making money.
After all, compared with gasoline vehicles and HEVs, the investment in plug-in hybrid and pure electric batteries is an order of magnitude different. Now that Toyota has chosen to make its own batteries, and the new battery technology is aiming to be able to continue to compete in a decade's time, it is only natural that it will invest heavily and will need time to polish the technology.
This approach is "very Toyota", and it is actually very suitable for the Chinese market.
Choose Tencent≠ not Huawei
At the Beijing Motor Show Media Day, Toyota unveiled the details of its strategic cooperation with Tencent.
Tencent is not playing the role of an ordinary supplier, but a "strategic partner". The two companies will give full play to their respective strengths, and Toyota will combine Tencent's AI model, cloud, digital ecosystem and other advantages with Toyota's SDV (Software Defined Vehicles) and other mobility to create a personalized and diversified mobility experience for users.
The detailed cooperation has three dimensions: Tencent will provide Toyota with digital technologies, such as AI models, cloud computing, big data, etc., and jointly promote the SDV process with Toyota; Tencent will give full play to the value of connectivity, and use WeChat's social capabilities and digital ecology to connect users' lives with Toyota's wide range of mobility terminals. The two parties will jointly build a diversified new mobility ecosystem.
To this end, Toyota also presented the LF-ZC Concept, an SDV model, at the Beijing Motor Show, to demonstrate the concept of downsizing and lightening aerodynamics and basic components.
So why did Toyota choose Tencent over Huawei? In the face of such a sharp question, Tatsuro Ueda quickly played a Tai Chi: "Huawei has always supported Toyota's Connected technology, and the two sides will continue to cooperate in the future." By combining the data of the two companies, we hope to provide consumers with products that can feel 'WOW'. ”
At present, GAC Toyota's 9th generation Camry has been equipped with Huawei's intelligent cockpit technology, which is one of the collaborations mentioned by Tatsuro Ueda. However, the cooperation in the macro ecology cannot be compared with the "strategic cooperation" with Tencent.
"Toyota works with like-minded partners, no matter who they are. Shared values are very important. Our SDV is people-centric. "Tencent has a wide range of connections with its customers, and Toyota's vision is to mass-produce happiness. By combining Tencent's data with Toyota's cars, we will enrich the lives of our customers. We hope to release the product by the end of the year. ”
From what seems to be a very "official" discourse, it can actually be interpreted that Toyota's demand for intelligent technology in China is still in a relatively cautious state - cooperating with Huawei in the smart cabin, without involving intelligent driving, and BYD also cooperates around the bZ3 car machine, and Tencent, which is good at ecological operation, is conducive to Toyota's first test of the water more "retreat" and long-term project, "did not hand over the soul".
Therefore, from Toyota's measures, it is not difficult to see that Toyota is still the one who seeks stability and moderation, and the most critical intelligent driving technology is still in its own hands.
"In terms of autonomous driving, the bZ3C and bZ3X were announced today and are equipped with the most advanced autonomous driving technology." Yoshiki Konishi, General Manager of Toyota Smart Electric Vehicle R&D Center (China) Co., Ltd., revealed, "This technology is very important in China. We have established a team of professionals in Shanghai and continue to develop technology and increase the number of employees. In the future, the company plans to introduce the latest technology to automobiles launched in China. ”
Obviously, after TRI-AD and Woven City, Toyota is bound to build IEM into its "important town" for intelligent technology in the world.
When the world's largest car company and the world's largest auto market form a mutual endorsement, the former judges that "China will not become an island", and the latter votes with consumers to prove that "in the decline of joint ventures, Toyota still has combat power", rather than judging "China or Japan has the more dominant auto industry", it is better to broaden the horizon and infer that "the world balance of the auto industry has reverted to the East".
China's auto industry has risen in the forest of the world, and I am afraid that after the short-term breakthrough, in the long future, it will also need to learn from Toyota's steady and steady style, and that is not only the concept of a Japanese car company, but also from the East Asian Confucian culture, belonging to the profound wisdom of the East.