Since April 11, the main manganese and silicon companies have continued to rise, rising for 20 consecutive days. Yesterday, it hit a new high of 9,192 yuan/ton since November 4, 2021, and then weakened and closed down 5.07%. Today's decline has expanded, falling 7.73% intraday at one point, and closing down 7.10% as of the day.
Manganese silicon main connection trend:
Spot prices
According to the SMM spot price, the average spot price of silicon-manganese 6517 (acceptance) in Inner Mongolia has been flat in the past two days after rising for 6 consecutive days, and is reported at 8200 yuan/ton today. According to SMM research, the current spot supply of silicon-manganese is tight.
Changes in the average spot price of silicon-manganese 6517 (acceptance) in Inner Mongolia:
Fundamentals
Supply side: In terms of manganese ore, according to SMM analysis, in the medium term, the supply gap of manganese ore has become an established fact, but the short-term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and domestic manganese miners continue to raise prices, although the increase has narrowed. In the long run, the tight supply of manganese ore may be alleviated.
In terms of output, according to SMM data, since November 2023, the total output of silicon-manganese alloys in mainland China has fluctuated. The output in April was 778,000 tons, down 3.77% month-on-month and 13.15% year-on-year. On the whole, the operating rate in some areas decreased, coupled with the fewer natural days in April, the output of silicon-manganese turned to shrink, and the total output of silicon-manganese in April decreased.
Entering May, enterprises in cost-advantaged areas such as Inner Mongolia started to maintain. However, considering the strengthening of silicon-manganese cost support, the growth of silicon-manganese production is still under pressure. Therefore, the overall silicon-manganese production in May is expected to fluctuate little, or about 773,000 tons.
Monthly output trend of domestic silicon-manganese alloy:
Demand side: According to SMM's latest survey, the current spot price is high, the downstream steel mills are willing to purchase at high prices, and the spot transactions are few. The bidding volume of steel mills is less than expected, and the bidding volume of some steel mills is significantly less.
SMM outlook
On the whole, the supply of manganese ore on the supply side of silicon-manganese fundamentals is tight as a whole, and the downstream steel mills on the demand side are afraid of wait-and-see. There are many market disturbance factors, and the future price of manganese and silicon may fluctuate in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the news and supply and demand.