Produced by the IPO group of the company's research office
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After three months of silence, on May 16, A-shares will finally usher in the first company to go to the meeting after the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon - Marco Polo.
As a real estate post-cycle industrial chain, Marco Polo's net profit has declined year by year in the past three years. In addition, in March 2022, Marco Polo paid a surprise dividend of 500 million yuan, and submitted a listing application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange two months later.
In the prospectus released on May 10 (the previous draft), Marco Polo lowered the amount of funds raised from 4.018 billion yuan to 3.158 billion yuan, and deleted the item of supplementing 800 million yuan of liquidity.
As the first company to go to the meeting after the release of the new "National Nine Articles", whether Marco Polo can pass the meeting has attracted much attention from the market.
1. Affected by the real estate industry, net profit has declined for two consecutive years
Marco Polo, which has a foreign name, is actually a manufacturer and seller of architectural ceramics in China.
Marco Polo was established in 2008, mainly owning two private brands: "Marco Polo Tiles" and "Weimei L&D Ceramic".
As a member of the post-cycle industrial chain of real estate, the prosperity of the domestic real estate market directly affects the performance trend of Marco Polo.
Marco Polo said in the prospectus, "the real estate control policy has inhibited the demand for real estate investment to a certain extent, affected the speed and scale of real estate project development, and then affected the business development speed of building ceramics enterprises to a certain extent, and adversely affected the company's product sales." ”
At the macro level, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2019 to 2023, the domestic real estate development investment will be 13.22 trillion yuan, 14.14 trillion yuan, 14.76 trillion yuan, 13.29 trillion yuan, and 11.09 trillion yuan respectively.
In 2022 and 2023, the completion of real estate development investment will decline for two consecutive years, and the willingness of real estate companies to invest is not strong.
From 2019 to 2023, Marco Polo's revenue will be 8.130 billion, 8.591 billion, 9.365 billion, 8.661 billion and 8.925 billion respectively, and the net profit in the same period will be 1.628 billion, 1.574 billion, 1.653 billion, 1.514 billion and 1.353 billion respectively.
On the performance side, in the past five years, Marco Polo has hit a peak in revenue and net profit in 2021, and since then, revenue and net profit have fluctuated, of which net profit has declined for two consecutive years.
This downward trend continues into the first half of 2024.
In the first quarter of 2024, Marco Polo's revenue will be 1.313 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 197 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.03%.
The company expects to achieve revenue of 3.55 billion to 3.75 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year change of -12.17% to -16.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 630 million to 710 million, a year-on-year change of -18.42% to -8.06%.
In the current real estate industry environment, Marco Polo, as a traditional ceramic manufacturer and seller, where is the company's future growth? What dividends can A-share investors enjoy with the listing of Marco Polo?
These two questions may need to be answered by Marco Polo to investors.
2. The new prospectus specifically mentions the sharing of profits with new and old shareholders
Marco Polo's meeting attracted much attention, not only because it was the first company to go to the meeting after the three-month suspension of A-share IPOs, but also because it could be a window to observe the new "National Nine Articles" and its supporting policies.
In the past, there have been frequent cases of "liquidation" dividends by companies planning to be listed before formally submitting their listing applications, and these companies often "pay dividends with their left hand and borrow or raise funds with their right hand", transferring their debts to investors in the secondary market.
Now, the new "National Nine Articles" clearly include pre-listing surprise "clearance" dividends and other situations into the negative list for issuance and listing.
In terms of the identification indicators of large dividends, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges said that they would initially consider the proportion of the cumulative dividend amount in the three years of the reporting period to the net profit in the same period exceeding 80%; or enterprises with a cumulative dividend amount of more than 50% of the net profit in the same period and a cumulative dividend amount of more than 300 million yuan, and a total proportion of supplementary liquidity and loan repayment in the raised funds is higher than 20%, will not be allowed to issue and go public.
From 2021 to 2023, Marco Polo has paid cash dividends twice, totaling 823 million yuan.
Among them, in March 2022, after the deliberation and approval of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2022, a profit of 500 million yuan will be distributed to all shareholders; In March 2023, after the deliberation and approval of the 2022 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, a profit of 323 million yuan will be distributed to all shareholders.
From 2021 to 2023, Marco Polo's cumulative net profit will be 4.521 billion yuan, accounting for 18% of the dividend amount, which does not exceed the new regulatory regulations.
In addition, Marco Polo's prospectus is more detailed than previous editions in the investor protection section.
Marco Polo said, "After the implementation of cash dividends during the reporting period, the company's existing financial position will have little impact on the issuer's existing financial position and will not affect the issuer's normal production and operation." ”
Marco Polo also added that from 2021 to the end of 2023, the company's undistributed profits amounted to 3.437 billion yuan, 4.305 billion yuan, and 5.288 billion yuan respectively, and the company retained a large amount of undistributed profits to be shared by new and old shareholders after listing.
These two paragraphs explain dividends and undistributed profits that are not found in the 2022 and 2023 prospectuses.
3. Before the meeting, the amount of funds raised will be reduced by 860 million yuan, and the supplementary flow will be deleted
The impact of the regulator's consideration of supplementing liquidity on the company to be listed can be seen from Marco Polo's action of reducing the amount of funds raised and deleting the replenishment of liquidity.
According to the prospectus disclosed by Marco Polo in 2022 and 2023, the company's IPO plans to raise 4.018 billion yuan for investment or upgrading of 6 projects, as well as 860 million yuan to supplement liquidity.
Although from 2021 to 2023, Marco Polo's cash dividends accounted for less than 50% of net profit, the total dividends of 823 million were far greater than 300 million, and the proportion of supplementary funds was 21.4%, exceeding the "red line" of 20%.
In terms of dividends and replenishment of liquidity, Marco Polo has a slight "edge".
However, according to Marco Polo's past financial data, the company's solvency has gradually improved over the past three years, and cash flow is not tight.
From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, Marco Polo's asset-liability ratios were 55.45%, 44.11%, and 37.67%, respectively, declining year by year; The current ratios (current assets/current liabilities) were 1.20, 1.63 and 1.83 respectively, indicating an overall upward trend.
In addition, at the end of 2023, Marco Polo's short-term borrowing balance was 117 million, long-term borrowing balance was 665 million, and the principal and interest of the borrowing to be repaid in the next 12 months were 263 million. At the end of the period, Marco Polo's book money funds were 3.888 billion, which was enough to cover long-term and short-term borrowings and interest, and the company had abundant liquidity.
With solvency improving year by year and liquidity at the end of 2023, Marco Polo does not have the need to rush to replenish huge amounts of liquidity.
On May 10, in the prospectus disclosed by Marco Polo (the previous draft), the supplementary liquidity of 860 million yuan was directly deleted, and the IPO fund-raising amount was reduced from 4.018 billion to 3.158 billion under the condition that the investment amount of the remaining six projects remained unchanged.
The new regulatory regulations on supplementing liquidity have a direct impact on Marco Polo and other companies to be listed, and have played a positive role in maintaining the A-share ecosystem.
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