Recently, the London "Financial Times" reported that Volkswagen CEO Shi Wentao said at an auto conference that as the demand for pure electric vehicles slows down, Volkswagen will launch more hybrid models.
Since the beginning of this year, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have successively slowed down the sales plan of pure electric vehicles, and instead set their sights on plug-in hybrid models, and Volkswagen has also participated in them, and the importance of hybrid models in the current market is self-evident.
On the other hand, although Toyota has refuted rumors that it will use BYD's DM-i hybrid technology to launch a new car, it still shows that the current technical status of plug-in hybrid can gradually replace fuel vehicles.
After Volkswagen enters the plug-in mix, whether it can reverse the weakness of the joint venture brand in the Chinese market depends not only on the demand changes from the market perspective, but also on the plug-in mix of the joint venture brand, compared with the Chinese brand, to what extent.
From a technical point of view, can the joint venture brand catch up with the Chinese brand?
In terms of technological development, some joint venture brand plug-in hybrid models are deployed early.
For example, before 2020, when new energy vehicles were not yet popular, Volkswagen launched several plug-in hybrid models for the Chinese market. Earlier, just around 2010, SAIC-GM created a plug-in hybrid model. However, due to the high price, the market response is poor.
After 2020, BYD's DM-i plug-in hybrid technology will bring plug-in hybrid models into a new dimension.
Until this year's Beijing Auto Show, SAIC-GM came up with a new generation of intelligent electric plug-in hybrid system, using the full-stack self-developed P1+P3 series-parallel PHEV plug-in hybrid architecture, the engine is equipped with the Ecotec1.5T electric hybrid engine, and the original "AI intelligent control algorithm" is used to achieve a one-stop hybrid system under all working conditions. This hybrid system is also called the "2.0 Plus" technology in the plug-in hybrid 2.0 era by SAIC-GM.
The direct effect is from two aspects, one is in the GL8, the CLTC comprehensive range has been increased to 1370km, and the pure electric WLTC range has reached 108km; The second is the first ride on the Chevrolet Explorer PLUS, which lowers the price of the fuel version of the Explorer with a starting price of 184,900 to 149,900. In other words, the plug-in hybrid system is directly reflected in the effect of the product, long battery life, low energy consumption and cost reduction, SAIC-GM has achieved it.
Looking at Volkswagen again, the current Volkswagen plug-in hybrid models still use the P2 structure, that is, the engine, electric motor and electromechanical coupling, and the electric motor is integrated in the gearbox. Including Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the hybrid structure of the P2 motor is also used, because in the process of technological development from fuel vehicles to hybrid models, foreign brands with engines and gearboxes as advantages can use the hybrid mode of P2 structure with low development cost and low technical difficulty, and can also achieve good energy-saving effects. For example, the combined fuel consumption of the Volkswagen Tiguan L PHEV and Tiguan L 380TSI is 5.2L and 8.2L per 100 kilometers, respectively, and the fuel saving effect reaches 37%. However, the shortcomings are also clear at a glance, that is, it is necessary to stuff a motor into the axial space where the engine and gearbox are located, and the general arrangement is difficult.
It can be seen that the German hybrid pays more attention to achieving fuel efficiency while ensuring power output, which is consistent with its research and development concept in the era of fuel vehicles.
At present, users' demand for hybrid vehicles is nothing more than energy saving and pure electric range. Pure electric is suitable for urban commuting, and energy saving is related to long-distance travel. Judging from the effect of the hybrid technology of the joint venture brand alone, it can be regarded as meeting the needs of users.
Comparing several models of BYD and Volkswagen, the hybrid technology in two directions, according to the WLTC standard, the fuel consumption of Song PLUS per 100 kilometers is 5.3L, the Tanyue GTE of the same level is about 6L, and the Magotan GTE can reach 4.8 liters, and the actual effect is not much different.
From the perspective of the market, is there still a chance for joint ventures to enter the market?
It is already a fact that the growth rate of plug-in hybrids is faster than that of pure electric vehicles, coupled with the largest sales volume of less than 200,000 passenger car market, new energy vehicles have the potential to completely replace fuel vehicles, and joint venture brands have to face new market changes.
Volkswagen CEO Schwentao said that if he had been asked a year ago whether he would develop a plug-in hybrid model, he would have replied that the technology has no value because the cost of the technology is too high.
Including Mercedes-Benz and BMW, this question has also been raised, and the technical cost of plug-in hybrid is much higher than that of pure electric vehicles. But the reality is that under the crazy involution, domestic new energy vehicle companies have proved that plug-in hybrid models can fight a price war at the same time, there is still a certain profit margin, in contrast, the price war ability of pure electric models is not strong, and the profit margin is smaller.
To put it simply, plug-in hybrid vehicles cost money in the early stage of research and development, and when the follow-up is profitable, the pure electric model does not invest much in the early stage, but it is not profitable in the later stage.
For joint ventures, which have always valued profits, plug-in hybrid models are obviously more attractive. Looking back at Volkswagen's 2023 financial report, two sets of data, Volkswagen sold a total of 771,000 pure electric vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35%, outperforming the sales growth rate of all models with a year-on-year increase of 11%, but the operating profit excluding special items was basically the same as in 2022, and the operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points.
Translated into this, Volkswagen's pure electric vehicle sales are gratifying, and sales are good, 771,000 pure electric vehicle sales performance in the global pure electric sales group, second only to BYD and Tesla, it stands to reason that pure electric and fuel vehicles are growing, and in 2023, its revenue performance in all aspects has improved greatly, and the operating profit should be higher, but the fact is the opposite, at least it can show that the sales of pure electric vehicles are increasing, which can have a negative impact on profits.
In the Chinese market, the Volkswagen ID. series has achieved good sales performance by virtue of substantial price reduction promotions, as well as preferential conditions such as low down payment, trade-in policy and three-year hedging repurchase. Presumably, this is also the reason why Volkswagen is considering focusing on plug-in hybrid models in the past two years.
In addition, in the passenger car market within 200,000, new energy accounts for the mainstream, and the plug-in hybrid growth rate is faster, which shows that at least in the past two years, the position of plug-in hybrid models in the passenger car market within 200,000 will gradually rise, becoming the first choice for users to buy cars. At present, in addition to luxury brands, most of the joint venture brands are mainly involved in the market within 200,000.
In other words, the market demand, the strategic significance of technology, plug-in hybrid to the maturity period and market harvesting period, the joint venture brand will not follow up, will face the existing pure electric models have no money to make, and the market share of fuel models will be further swallowed up.
Epilogue:
In the new energy era, the change in the wind direction of the auto market is calculated on a monthly basis, but the plug-in hybrid will last for a long time. The reason is obvious, pure electric models cannot meet user expectations, and for families, the comprehensive capacity of fuel vehicles has been suppressed by plug-in hybrids.
"As soon as the joint venture is launched, there will be a crisis in domestic production", the electric vehicle field has proved to be a bit empty, and now most mainstream joint ventures and foreign brands will focus on plug-in hybrids, and can regain market share from Chinese brands, wait and see. At least for now, the latest monthly market share of Chinese brands exceeds 60%, and if this continues, there is little market space left for joint venture brands, and plug-in hybrids may be the best lifesaver at present.