1. Benchmark price trends of various varieties
Summary of steel spot and futures prices
On May 14, the domestic steel market price was mixed, and the ex-factory tax-included price of Tangshan billet resources fell by 20 to 3,450 yuan/ton. Black futures opened high and went low, the market mentality weakened, and the transaction remained sluggish.
On May 14, all black futures fell. The main contract closed at 3630, down 0.68% from the previous trading day, DIF and DEA turned downward, and the RSI three-line indicator was located at 39-46, running towards the middle of the Bollinger band.
On May 14, 2 steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and 1 steel mill lowered the ex-factory price by 20 yuan/ton.
Rebar: On May 14, domestic construction steel prices were mixed, and the overall situation was temporarily stable. The average price of rebar in major cities across the country was 3,817 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Specifically, the snail shock weakened in the morning, and the domestic spot prices were mixed in the morning, and most of them remained stable. During the session, as the snails fell, the spot prices were partially loosened, the actual transaction discounts increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment of downstream procurement was strong, and the transaction volume shrank slightly throughout the day. In the short term, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the enthusiasm for downstream stocking is not high as a whole, and most of them are mainly based on on-demand procurement. Therefore, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices will continue to adjust in a narrow range on the 15th.
Hot-rolled coil: On May 14, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,805 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Black commodity futures fluctuated downward after opening high, and the spot market price followed the decline, lowering the quotation or secretly dropping the shipment, and the transaction was poor. Recently, the market supply has been consolidating at a high level, inventories have begun to increase, and terminal demand is poor, and the recent ultra-long special bond policy may have a certain stimulating effect on the market. On the whole, the current market is relatively cold, traders' sentiment is slightly pessimistic, and it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate in the near future.
Cold-rolled coil: On May 14, the national spot price of cold-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a national average price of 4,348 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The black futures market shook downward, and the spot price of cold-rolled coil in some markets fell in a narrow range due to poor transactions, and the market trading atmosphere was tepid. According to the feedback of traders, the inquiry situation is acceptable, but the actual transaction is average, the speed of cold-rolled inventory is slow, and the shipping pressure of merchants increases. At the same time, the wait-and-see mentality of the terminal has been further enhanced, and it is basically based on rigid demand procurement. In terms of mentality, the current market demand is flat, and merchants still maintain a cautious attitude towards the market outlook. On the whole, it is expected that the spot price of cold-rolled coil in China will fluctuate weakly on the 15th.
Plate: On May 14, the average price of 20mm plain plate in 24 major cities across the country was 3,896 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Futures fluctuated lower, the market trading was sluggish, and the overall transaction was poor. According to market feedback, it is difficult to land in the fifth round of coke increases, and the support of the cost side to the board price has weakened. From the market perspective, the demand in the spot market is insufficient, and the inventory still needs to be accelerated. At present, steel mills maintain a normal production rhythm, merchants are cautious in taking goods, market orders are still dominated by rigid demand, downstream procurement is cautious, and the power to replenish the warehouse is insufficient. Most of the merchants' operations are mainly based on secret discounted shipments, and the actual overall shipment performance is not ideal. On the whole, it is expected that the price of domestic medium and heavy plate will fluctuate and weaken on the 15th.
Second, the dynamics of raw materials
1. Billet
On May 14, Tangshan billet was stable, reported at 3470 yuan/ton; Qian'an Songting billet fell 20 to 3460 yuan / ton. In terms of the market, downstream steel enterprises are hesitant to purchase billets, and the performance of direct billet transactions is generally weak. The black series of spiral intraday shocks lower, traders' mentality weakened, the afternoon billet storage spot part of the report of 3,520 yuan including tax, trading limited. In terms of raw materials, the iron ore index rose by 0.65 US dollars yesterday, and the quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in Tangshan is now remitted to the plant at 2030-2060 yuan/ton, and the fifth round of coke is stranded.
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In terms of downstream finished products, the mainstream prices were stable, individual varieties were adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall transaction performance weakened. With the lack of follow-up of terminal demand, downstream shipments are gradually weak, and the intraday trend of futures has weakened, suppressing the trading sentiment of spot resources.
2. Iron ore
East China Iron Concentrate News: The market is mainly stable and adjustable, and the main force of Lian Iron Futures has fallen sharply due to the impact of coking coal production, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term. The leading large mines in the region are expected to have room for weakness in the short term. At present, the production of mining enterprises in the region is normal, and the inventory is not high, but the overall market is repeated, the participants operate cautiously, and some mining enterprises make profits and ship. Steel enterprises mainly execute orders, and some of them are weak and have the intention to reduce the amount of goods in the future. Price reference: 65 dry basis including tax, Shandong Jinxitai 1070 yuan, Anhui Lujiang 1055 yuan. Henan Yaxin 65 dry base tax to the factory 1100 yuan.
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On May 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore varieties imported from Shandong port fell weakly compared with the previous working day, falling by 15-20 cumulatively. In terms of selling, traders are generally enthusiastic about quotations, mainly shipping at appropriate prices, and there are fewer transactions in the spot market so far; Shandong Yuanyue market inquiry sentiment is acceptable, and there was a small amount of PB powder transactions at the end of July; In terms of buying, some steel mills in the region purchased on demand, and there were fewer inquiries. At present, the mainstream of PB powder is 863-868; The mainstream of super special powder is 710-715; PB block mainstream at 1005-1010.
There are two reasons behind the recent strength of iron ore: first, global iron ore shipments fell to a nearly one-month low last week, and at the same time, the amount of iron ore arriving at Chinese ports also declined; Second, international mining giant Rio Tinto reported a derailment of its iron ore transport train in Western Australia, raising concerns about supply-side tightening.
Coke: On May 14, the market price was temporarily stable. With the failure of the fifth round of coke increase plan, the market direction began to change, and the phenomenon of fear of high dumping in some trade links increased, and most of the coke enterprises have turned losses into profits after four rounds of coke prices, and the profits are considerable. In terms of downstream, the recent performance of the finished product market is average, the steel transaction has fallen into weakness again, and the support for the rise of coke has continued to weaken, which has basically failed, and it is expected that the coke market price will temporarily stabilize in the short term.
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Scrap: On May 14, the market price was mainly stable, and the purchase price of scrap steel in steel mills was mixed. The average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,443 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the snail opened slightly low and fluctuated in a narrow range, the market mentality was relatively weak, and the level of feedback and receipt from the processing base was average, but considering the weak rebound in the price trend, the shipment speed has accelerated; In view of the decline in the disk trend, the weak support of finished product prices, and the weak willingness of steel mills to store goods, it is expected that the price of scrap steel in the Jiangsu market will be stable on the 15th, and fluctuate individually or in a narrow range.
Third, the finished product dynamics
[Strip steel] today the national strip steel is stable and weak, the snail disk is high and volatile and low, the overall transaction performance of the market is flat, and the merchants are dominant, but the willingness to adjust the price is still limited. Among them, the leading steel mills in North China were mixed10; The mainstream of Tangshan 145 series narrow band fell by 10-20, the market supply and demand are not prosperous, low-level transactions are still difficult to scale, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong; The medium-wide spot weakened slightly, the market trading performance was sluggish, and the market price was not high or low, and the situation continued to be gamed; East China is mainly weak and stable, and the downstream replenishment is mainly demanded. Considering that the release of demand is limited, it is expected to be weak and stable.
【Medium plate】Today, the central board of China is stable and wait-and-see, Changsha Xianggang 4030 is stable, Wuhan Egang is 3890 stable, Zhengzhou Jingye 3870 is stable, Anyang Angang (low alloy) 4000 is stable, the bottom of the market is generally supported, there is no obvious rise in a short period of time, but the business mentality is acceptable, the transaction has no great impact, the market performance is generally peaceful, and the business operation is mainly based on shipments. It is expected to continue to be stable in the short term.
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【Cold rolling】The national cold rolling market is stable and weak, with a range of 10-30 yuan, and the average price of spot 1.0 cold coil is 4290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The hot coil futures disk is fluctuating, and the merchants are mostly temporarily stable shipments, and the current market demand is relatively light, and the overall shipments of merchants are average. It is understood that the current inventory pressure of merchants still exists, and many operations are still based on shipments, considering the current limited market demand, it is expected that the short-term market price will be weak and stable
【Thread】On May 14, the national snail price was stable. The snail opened high and went low, 10 closed in the afternoon 3630 fell 25, some resources in the country were lowered twice, the terminal procurement sentiment was more cautious, the demand was not released well, the overall transaction performance was weak, the terminal demand entered the off-season, the five rounds of coke were blocked, the market rumors or there are expectations of a reduction, there is adjustment pressure in the background of the disk premium, the demand for scrap steel has rebounded significantly, and the fundamental support still exists.
The main influencing factors are as follows: 1. The market trend is volatile, 2. The demand release is poor, and 3. The cost support is acceptable.
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Fourth, the interpretation of market macro hot topics
1. In the next 10 days, the precipitation in the south will be weak in the early stage and strengthened in the later stage, and there will be high temperature weather in some areas of North China and Huanghuai
In the next 10 days (May 14-23), the cumulative precipitation in southern Jiangnan, southern China, Guizhou, eastern and southern Yunnan will be 50-90 mm, 100-200 mm in some areas, and about 250 mm in southern Jiangnan and southern China; The cumulative precipitation in the above-mentioned areas is 2-6 times more than that of the same period in normal years, and about 1 times more locally, and the precipitation in most of the rest of the mainland is less.
From the current situation, the South China Sea summer monsoon may break out around the end of mid-May, and the rainfall driven by the monsoon is much more ferocious than the ordinary frontal rainfall where cold and warm meet. The signal of weak steel demand is still relatively obvious.
2. People's Bank of China: Further promote the optimization of payment services
The central bank held a meeting on optimizing payment services, requiring it to focus on key tasks such as bank card acceptance, cash payment, foreign currency exchange, mobile payment, account services, publicity and promotion, and further improve the scientificity, pertinence and accuracy of the work.
Interpretation: Accelerate the improvement of the all-round policy system, establish a special working mechanism, and take multiple measures to optimize payment services, which will help promote economic development. The active monetary policy will help optimize the payment environment of the steel industry and benefit the steel market.
Fifth, the snail aspect
Snail futures opened high and went low, and the snail 10 closed at 3630, down 25; Issue 10 closed at 3771, down 32. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,145.77 points, down 0.07%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9668.73 points, down 0.05%. Today, the top 20 main institutions of the 10 main institutions of the snail increased their long positions by 3,000 hands, and the short positions increased by 84,000 hands, and the position changes were bearish; Yongan short orders increased their positions strongly; and the warehouse receipts of the rebar exchange increased by 8,167 tons to 186506 tons, which affected the bearish.
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Today, the mainstream of finished timber in the country is weak, and the average price of most varieties has fallen by 10-30. Shanxi issued a notice to increase coal production and gradually liberalize the night shift production of coal mines. The fifth round of coke reduction has been stranded, and the market has been expected to raise and lower, and some market participants are bearish on coke prices in the second half of the year. Due to the slowdown in the reduction of finished materials and the weakening of demand, the peak of hot metal is expected to be strong, which is bearish for the trend of raw materials.
In the later stage, the market may speculate on the off-season of demand and the weakening of raw materials, but the macro benefits still support the bottom of the price. It is expected that the snail futures will be weak in the short term, pay attention to the snail support of 3550, 3600, 3630, and the pressure of 3690; The futures support is 3750, 3770, and the pressure is 3800.
6. Analysis of recent market trends
1. It is difficult to land the fifth round of coke price increases, the recovery of supply and demand and the marginal improvement of profits, the fifth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and there is a risk of price reduction in the future; Iron ore also has a weak operation, and the shipment in the future market is reduced; The high support of raw materials lacks a foundation, and there is still room for decline;
2. At present, the south is still in the rainy season, the demand for steel market is flat, the demand is relatively weak, and the inventory removal speed is slowing down; The pace of resumption of production of steel mills has also slowed down;
3. Due to the increase in macroeconomic control policies, the issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate, and the policy continues to exert force, and there is still some support for the mentality;
To sum up, steel prices may be in the existing situation first suppressed and then raised, narrow range shock weak finishing. The black futures market weakened again, downstream procurement is still dominated by rigid demand, and the market is still worried about the gradual increase in the fundamental pressure of steel supply and demand in the later period. In the short term, the market is intertwined with long and short, and steel prices may continue to fluctuate, with little room for rise and fall.
7. Summary of the latest steel mill price adjustment
Bayi Iron and Steel Building Materials Products Xinjiang Regional Settlement Guidance Price Raised by 30 Yuan/ton.
The above price adjustment notice will take effect from 10:00 on May 14, 2024.
Guiyang Changle raised 30 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is raised by 30 yuan/ton: HRB400EΦ18mm rebar is 3850 yuan, 12/14 plus 150 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan, 20, 22, 25 plus 80 yuan, 28 plus 200 yuan, 32 plus 250 yuan.
The above prices are all the prices of the buyer's cash and tax;
Measurement method: all are weighed; Prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.
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JISCO raised 20 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ20mmHRB400E rebar is 3820 yuan, Φ12-14mm is 150 yuan, Φ16mm is 100 yuan, 18mm is 80 yuan, 22/25mm is 50 yuan, and Φ28-32mm is 150 yuan;
2. The snail is raised by 20 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ8-10mmHRB400E snail is 4060 yuan.
3. The high line is raised by 20 yuan/ton: the execution price of Φ8-10mmHPB300 high line is 3960 yuan, and the price of Φ6mm is increased by 150 yuan.
The above prices are inclusive of tax, and the above prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024
Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel lowered 20 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is lowered by 20 yuan/ton: HRB400EΦ18mm rebar is 3670 yuan, 12/14 plus 110 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan, 20, 22, 25 plus 80 yuan, 28 plus 160 yuan, 32 plus 210 yuan;
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 20 yuan/ton: the guide price of HRB400EΦ8-10mm coiled snail is 3850 yuan, and the coiled snail 6 is added to 300 yuan.
3. The high-line is raised by 20 yuan/ton: the guide price of HPB300Φ8-10mm high-line is 3800 yuan, and the high-line 6 plus 150 yuan.
4. The fourth-grade HRB500E is added 280 yuan for the third-grade rebar of the same specification.
The above prices are all the prices of the buyer's cash and tax; Prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.
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Guangxi Guixin lowered 20 yuan/ton!!
1. Rebar is lowered by 20 yuan/ton: the execution price of three-level rebar is 3650 yuan, 12mm is 60 yuan, 14mm is 60 yuan, 16mm is 40 yuan, 20mm is 80 yuan, 22mm is 80 yuan, 25mm is 100 yuan, 28mm is 140 yuan, and 32mm is 230 yuan;
2. The snail is lowered by 20 yuan/ton: the execution price of the three-level coiled snail is 3880 yuan, and the price of 6mm is increased by 260 yuan.
The above prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.
Shougang Changzhi
1、螺纹平稳：Φ18-22mmHRB400E执行3780元，Φ12mm加200、Φ14mm加180、Φ16mm加30、Φ25mm加30、Φ28-32mm加120。
2. The wire rod is stable: Φ8-12mm4020 yuan.
3. Stable coil snail: Φ8-10mm4010 yuan.
The above prices are tax included in the ex-factory price, measurement method: thread for the calculation; The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed.
The above prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.
Shanxi Meijin
1. The rebar is stable: the execution price of Φ16-25mmHRB400E is 3940 yuan, and the small snail is 200 yuan;
2. The wire rod is stable: the execution price of HPB300Φ8-10mm is 4090 yuan;
3. The coil snail is stable: the execution price of Φ8-10mm is 4090 yuan;
The above prices are all tax-inclusive Taiyuan area delivery prices, measurement method: thread is weighed; The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed.
The above prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.
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Xianggang
1. Stable rebar: the ex-factory guide price of 18mm rebar made of HRB400E material is 3760 yuan/ton;
2. Stable coiled snails: the ex-factory guide price of HRB400E material 8-10mm coiled snails is 3880 yuan/ton;
3. The wire rod is stable: the ex-factory guide price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high wire is 3960 yuan/ton;
The above prices will be implemented from May 14, 2024.