Analysis of today's non-ferrous metals market
On the macro front, the US PPI rose more than expected in April, and Federal Reserve officials reiterated that they may keep interest rates high for longer, hitting the non-ferrous sector. In terms of import and export, the White House announced that tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will be increased from the current 25% to 100%, further suppressing new energy raw materials. As of 3 p.m.: Shanghai tin rose 2.67%; Shanghai lead rose 2.59%; Shanghai zinc rose 0.61%; Shanghai nickel fell 0.03%; Shanghai copper fell 0.07%; Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.51%.
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futures market
spot market
Tomorrow's non-ferrous metals market trend forecast
Copper/copper scrap
Today's Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, and the main Shanghai copper 2407 contract closed at 82080 (-60, -0.07%) as of the end of the day. On the macro front, the US PPI inflation data increased more than expected, and the market bet on the Fed to delay the interest rate cut, but from the perspective of the dollar's rise and fall, investors are still trading in the general direction of interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the frequent disruption of the supply side and the increase in smelter maintenance have caused concerns about the shortage of copper supply; On the other hand, the recovery of the global manufacturing industry and the energy transition have boosted demand for copper. In addition, China's new property market policy and new energy vehicle subsidy policies have also brought a certain boost to copper prices. Due to the continuation of the overseas short market, the market bullish atmosphere is strong, it is expected that the copper price will rise in the near future, pay attention to the US CPI data in the evening, the main night market of Shanghai copper is expected to probe 83000 pressure, the operation of upstream and downstream on-demand stocking, a long period to maintain a wait-and-see, cargo dealers light warehouse operation.
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In the morning, Foshan Dali Freight Yard bright copper reported 73100-73300 yuan/ton, Linyi Metal City pure strip 72900, Baoding joint stock 72800. Today's scrap copper prices have pulled back slightly, according to the survey of the Sichuan market, traders mostly believe that the current market is risky, and they are cautious and sell with the purchase; Copper factories maintain on-demand procurement, and many downstream cable companies of copper factories have reported that orders this year have fallen by about 30% or more year-on-year due to the rise in copper prices.
aluminium
As of 3 p.m., the main 2406 contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,505 yuan / ton, down 110, or 0.53%; Yunnan has fully liberalized the management of electricity load, and the resumption of production of aluminum plants has continued to increase; The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continued to decline, the actual transaction in the market did not improve significantly, and the short-term aluminum price fell into a shock pattern, with 20,300 support references below Shanghai aluminum, and the range fluctuated within 20,400-20,700, cautiously chasing higher. It is expected that the spot aluminum price will not fluctuate much tomorrow.
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Lead/waste batteries
This afternoon, Shanghai lead high sideways, Shanghai lead 2407 contract closed at 18790, up 475, or 2.59%, Shanghai lead rose sharply to coincide with the delivery day of the 05 contract, long funds actively participated in spot delivery, further verifying that the market is optimistic about the market outlook. However, the downstream consumer side is still in the off-season, and the pressure on the substantial increase in costs is greater, and the suppression of lead prices by consumption may also be reflected in the subsequent production and sales data.
Today, the price of lead has risen by 250, and waste batteries have continued to rise. Spot lead prices remained above 18,100. The shortage of goods in the market continues, and traders choose to ship at a higher price. Today, the recycling price in Anhui, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has risen by about 50-160. The recycling price in Henan, Jiangxi and Hubei was flat. It is expected that the price of short-term waste batteries will mainly rise, and shipments can be considered.
Operation suggestion: The price of lead is expected to rise by 200 today, and the price of waste batteries will rise slightly. Yesterday, the price of lead rose by 200, the recycling price of waste batteries rose, some traders chose to ship high, and some traders in Zhejiang and Shandong reported that the supply of waste batteries in the market continued to be in short supply. Today, the recycling price of a refinery in Anhui continues to rise by about 30, and the price of waste batteries is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to stock up on dips.
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zinc
Shanghai zinc shock in the afternoon, as of three o'clock in the afternoon, the main 2407 contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24005, up 145, an increase of 0.61%, the 2405 contract closed at 23830 in the month, up 190, an increase of 0.8%, the market is expected to cool down in the evening of the United States CPI is strong, the US index weakened today, boosting the non-ferrous disk again, and the domestic economic easing policy is frequent, market sentiment is effectively mobilized, this zinc has broken through the previous high, but overseas macro news is uncertain, still need more data guidance, It is difficult to be optimistic about the superimposed fundamental situation, and the zinc price is too high, which seriously inhibits the willingness of downstream purchases.
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tin
Shanghai tin rose sharply during the day, and the main contract closed at 277200 as of 3 o'clock in the afternoon, up 7220, or 2.67%. The main contract was 2406 lots traded 166281 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1485 lots to 43266 lots. The Shanghai tin futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 17,073 tons, an increase of 52 tons or about 0.31% from the previous day. The market sentiment is preferred, and the funds are pulling up to challenge the previous high. Tin prices are high, downstream shipments are not smooth, and we are wary of the risk of short-term correction of tin prices. Operationally, take profit in batches is the mainstay.
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nickel
Shanghai nickel fell slightly today, as of 3 p.m., the main Shanghai nickel 2406 contract closed at 144,380 yuan, down 0.03%. The intraday trading of the main contract was stronger than the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The trading volume was 215865 lots, and the open interest was 78,586 lots, with an increase of 16,653 lots and a decrease of 1,431 lots.
Today's main Shanghai nickel contract fluctuated around 144,000. From a macro point of view, the U.S. announced that it would further increase tariffs on Chinese goods such as electric vehicles imported from China, which put some pressure on nickel prices for new energy vehicles. From the spot point of view, some terminal enterprises have a wait-and-see mentality, and some merchants also said that the companies that have stocked up on dips are not willing to take orders at present, and as the price trend continues to consolidate in the range, most of them are cautious and wait-and-see, reducing operations. The fundamental logic has not changed, and the oversupply of pure nickel has dragged down nickel prices. Focus on tonight's US CPI data guidance.
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It is expected that short-term nickel prices will fluctuate widely, focusing on the range of 140,000-146,000.