As summer temperatures rise, the critical moment for peak summer is approaching. A few days ago, Zhang Xing, deputy director and spokesman of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, said that since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption has continued to grow rapidly, and the electricity consumption of the whole society in the first quarter was 2.34 trillion kilowatt hours. It is expected that during the summer of this year, the national electricity load will grow rapidly, and the maximum load will increase by more than 100 million kilowatts year-on-year, and the power supply will face certain pressure. What are the challenges faced by the power system during the peak summer season? How to prepare for the summer electricity peak? How to improve power supply capacity to adapt to the growth trend of power demand?
The country's electricity supply is generally guaranteed
According to the data of the National Energy Administration, from January to March, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2,337.3 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, of which the power generation of industries above designated size was 2,237.2 billion kilowatt hours. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 28.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 1,505.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 423.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 379.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%.
Talking about the supply and demand of electricity this summer, Zhang Xing pointed out at the meeting: "Comprehensive research and judgment, during the peak summer this year, the national power supply is generally guaranteed, and there may be a shortage of power supply during peak hours in some areas, mainly Inner Mongolia and some provinces in East China, Central China, Southwest China and South China." In the event of extreme and catastrophic weather, the power supply crunch may be further exacerbated. ”
"During the peak summer of 2024, the national power supply and demand situation is generally tightly balanced." The "Analysis and Forecast Report on the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Quarter of 2024" released by the China Electricity Council also predicts that many uncertainties in power supply and demand are intertwined and superimposed, bringing uncertainty to the power supply and demand situation.
"Electricity is the cornerstone of modern society, and a stable power supply is essential to ensure the normal operation of the economy and society and meet the basic living needs of the people." Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Zhongguancun Internet of Things Industry Alliance and executive director of the high-quality development promotion project of specialized, special and new enterprises, said in an interview with a reporter from China City Daily that during the peak period of electricity consumption in summer, ensuring the stability and continuity of power supply will help maintain a stable social life order and promote economic development.
In order to ensure the safe and stable supply of electricity during the peak summer, the National Energy Administration will take "flexible normal supply, local short-term tension measures, and effective response to extreme situations" as the goal, and tighten and consolidate the responsibilities of all parties. Zhang Xing said that energy and power monitoring and early warning should be strengthened. Closely track the electricity consumption, water, coal, and unit output in the country and key areas, and coordinate and solve problems in a timely manner; We should pay close attention to the early warning results of power supply and demand in the peak summer of 2024 and the work suggestions of "one province and one policy", and guide local governments and enterprises to prepare in advance.
"In order to ensure that the potential of supply guarantee is fully realized during peak hours, the National Energy Administration will guide power grid enterprises to optimize operation and scheduling arrangements, dig deep into the potential of inter-regional and inter-network surplus and shortage, fully release the capacity of various power sources and transmission channels, and promote the effective use of new energy storage. We should give full play to the capacity electricity price assessment mechanism, and increase the assessment of non-stop and blocked output of units, so as to ensure that the units can be fully generated and stabilized to full capacity. At the same time, accelerate the construction and production of supporting power supplies. Promote the construction and commissioning of supporting power projects in accordance with the list management mechanism, monitor the progress of the project on a monthly basis, and report the completion on a quarterly basis. Zhang Xing stressed that it is necessary to further optimize the load management measures and implement them accurately and refined, resolutely adhere to the bottom line of not pulling the gate and limiting power, and resolutely ensure the people's livelihood electricity.
Accelerate the construction of substations in many places
In addition to the surge in electricity demand, there is another challenge facing the peak summer – the uncertainty of renewable energy generation.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, renewable energy generation on the mainland has steadily increased. In the first quarter of 2024, the country's renewable energy generation capacity reached 687.5 billion kWh, accounting for about 30.7% of the total power generation. Among them, wind power and photovoltaic power generation reached 425.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
According to the analysis of the above-mentioned report, on the supply side, there are uncertainties in wind and solar resources and water supply, and the increase in conventional power sources is smaller than the increase in electricity load, which increases the potential risks of power production and supply. On the demand side, the proportion of cooling electricity load in the mainland in summer is about 30%, and in some areas it is more than 40%, and the summer temperature has become the main factor affecting the growth of electricity consumption; At the same time, macroeconomic growth and foreign trade and export situation have also brought certain uncertainties to the growth of electricity consumption.
"With the large-scale access of new energy sources and the growth of power demand, the construction and upgrading of power grids has become particularly important. However, at present, the construction of the power grid is relatively lagging behind, and it is difficult to meet the demand for new energy access and power transmission. Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said.
Wang Peng further analyzed that with the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for electricity continues to grow. However, the traditional power production and supply mode can no longer meet the current demand, resulting in an increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand. This contradiction is even more pronounced especially during peak periods of electricity consumption, such as summer. In his opinion, the high summer temperature has led to a significant increase in electricity demand, especially in the southern region, where the use of refrigeration equipment such as air conditioning has caused a sharp increase in electricity load. The long-term high-load operation of power supply equipment is easy to cause overload faults, which in turn affects the stability of power supply. The load of the power line will also increase with the increase of electricity consumption, which may lead to problems such as overheating and short circuit of the line.
In order to enhance the power supply capacity and provide reliable power supply guarantee, many places have accelerated the construction of substations, and some projects have made new progress. On May 8, the 500 kV power transmission and transformation project in the east of Henan Port Area was fully completed and put into operation, and the No. 4 main transformer of the aviation substation was successfully charged at one time, which marked the official live operation of the 51st 500 kV substation in Henan. On the same day, good news was also reported in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province to alleviate the pressure of power supply during the peak summer. The 10th ultra-high voltage substation put into operation in Hangzhou - Hangzhou Jiande 500 kV power transmission and transformation project was officially put into operation. As the only ultra-high voltage substation in the three counties and cities in the west of Hangzhou, the project also undertakes the task of sending out the Jiande Wulongshan Pumped Storage Power Station, which will further enhance the power supply capacity of the western part of Hangzhou. In addition, the 110 thousand volt Houwei substation of Anhui Hefei Power Supply Company was officially put into operation recently. It is reported that the station is the 195th substation of 110 thousand volts and above in Hefei Power Grid, and the first substation in Hefei to be put into operation in 2024, which will provide more stable power for the economic and social development of the Canal New City.
In this regard, Wang Peng said that the power supply capacity of the power grid can be improved by increasing the capacity of transmission lines, substations and other equipment. Accelerate the pace of construction and upgrading of power grid infrastructure, and improve the transmission capacity and stability of the power grid.
The development of new energy power generation and the improvement of the power market supervision are also effective ways to improve the power supply capacity. "Vigorously promote renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar energy, reduce dependence on traditional energy sources, and improve the diversity and sustainability of electricity supply. Establish and improve the supervision mechanism of the electricity market, strengthen the supervision of the electricity market, and ensure fair competition and healthy development of the electricity market。 Optimize the allocation of resources through market-oriented means to improve the efficiency and quality of power supply. Wang Peng said.
Closely follow the development trend of high and new technology
However, the occurrence of extreme and catastrophic weather is often difficult to predict, so what can be done to effectively mitigate the impact of extreme and catastrophic weather?
"Local governments and power companies should formulate response plans in advance, strengthen the maintenance and inspection of power grid facilities, and ensure the normal operation of equipment in extreme weather." Yuan Shuai told reporters that on this basis, all localities should strengthen communication and cooperation with meteorological departments, timely grasp weather change information, and do a good job in early warning and dispatching of power supply. At the same time, optimize the load management measures and implement them in a precise and detailed manner, strengthen the construction of emergency rescue teams, and improve the ability to respond to emergencies.
Promoting the construction of smart grids is also an important measure to alleviate the shortage of power supply. Wang Peng added: "By introducing advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data analysis, we can improve the intelligence of power grid operation, so as to respond more quickly to changes in severe weather and make corresponding adjustment strategies to ensure the stability and security of power supply." ”
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, with the rapid development of the economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, especially driven by high and new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the growth rate of energy consumption demand is gradually accelerating. In the face of the growth rate of energy demand, how to ensure that the stable supply of electricity and other energy sources is compatible with the growth of demand?
Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", domestic energy consumption has generally maintained rapid growth, and the demand for electricity and other energy has been significantly faster than expected. The National Energy Administration has taken multiple measures to increase resource security to ensure a safe and stable supply of energy. Zhao Li, the second-level inspector of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, believes that it is necessary to give full play to the role of fossil energy as a backstop, speed up the construction of coal power and other supporting regulatory power sources, ensure that it is put into operation according to the expected schedule before the peak summer and winter peaks, and promote the steady and healthy development of new energy power generation. Accelerate the construction of power grid projects, dig deep into the potential of power grids across regions and regional power grids, and urge all localities to use market-oriented methods to improve demand-side response capabilities. Promote the synergy between supply and demand to provide a reliable guarantee to meet the growing demand for electricity consumption.
"It is also necessary to do a good job in dynamic monitoring, analysis and early warning of energy supply and demand, keep an eye on the energy demand in key periods and key areas, closely track the electricity load, thermal coal, water supply in major river basins, etc., analyze and judge the emergent, potential and trend problems found in a timely manner, carry out early warning of power supply and demand in the peak summer of 2024, do a good job in work coordination, guide local and enterprises to prepare in advance, and ensure people's livelihood and key users use electricity. Closely track the development trend of artificial intelligence and other high-tech technologies, analyze and judge the growth trend of power demand, and systematically plan measures to ensure that the stable supply of energy is compatible with the growth of demand. Zhao Li said.
■China City Daily reporter Zhu Lina