【Disk Analysis】
The US PPI data exceeded expectations, indicating that inflation still fell less than expected, and the Federal Reserve mentioned that interest rate hikes would be "delayed", but US stocks continued to be strong, less than 1% away from record highs. The peripheral market is obviously higher, and the A-share market has also fluctuated at a high level since May, and the market is seriously differentiated in this position, and the policy and news are relatively flat, which has a certain relationship with the "five poor" market. At present, the strategy is still to see the rhythm of the rebound, do not chase the rise and kill the fall, but can choose to enter the market at a low level after adjustment.
The central bank proposed to study and digest the stock of real estate and optimize the policy measures for incremental housing, Hangzhou and Xi'an liberalized the purchase restriction policy, and Shenzhen optimized the purchase restriction area and purchase restriction conditions. Real estate stock prices usually respond faster to policy than the recovery of fundamentals, and the current valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, and the bottom of real estate stocks has been basically clear. The change in the tone of the Politburo meeting on real estate, as well as the strong expectation of further release of future policies, may drive this round of sector rally. With the coordinated efforts of macro policies and the continuous follow-up of policies at both ends of real estate supply and demand, especially in core cities, driven by policies, market activity will further increase.
The three major indexes opened mixed, with individual stocks in the two cities falling more and rising less, with cloud games, aquatic products, BC batteries and other sectors performing strongly, while CXO, family doctors, synthetic biology and other sectors performed poorly. Most of the U.S. photovoltaic concept stocks closed up overnight, SunPower rose 92.9%, Maxeon Solar Technology rose 52.2%, iSun rose 14.6%, and Ascent Solar Technology rose 7.4%. Media and game stocks continued to be active at the opening, with Xinghui Entertainment 20CM daily limit, Caesar Culture daily limit, Tianzhou Culture, Dasheng Culture, etc., U.S. stock game station continued to rise 60% on Wednesday, and the stock rose 74% on Tuesday. In addition, Rastar Entertainment said on the interactive platform that the company has signed a licensing agreement with Shanghai Xuanting Entertainment Information Technology Co., Ltd. to obtain the authorization of "Celebrating More Than Years".
The concept of low-altitude economy bottomed out and rebounded, the new research shares 20% of the daily limit, Andawell, Shanggong Shenbei, etc. quickly followed up, and will strengthen research and planning in aircraft airworthiness certification, low-altitude flight service guarantee, infrastructure construction standards, market access management, safety supervision, etc. It has been a week since Shenzhen introduced the policy of zoning to optimize the purchase of housing, and the number of transfers in a single week has hit a new high in the past three years since May 2021. Since late April, many sets of domestic polyester plants have been reduced and overhauled, with a total overhaul capacity of 2.8 million tons. Ping An Securities pointed out that PTA and polyester filament yarns have gradually entered the maintenance cycle, and local supply may be tightened.
Recently, the world's two largest memory chip suppliers, SK hynix and Micron, have said that the high-bandwidth memory chips (HBM) in 2024 have been sold out, and the inventory in 2025 is almost sold out. Chemical and fertilizer stocks moved up, Longxing Chemical rose by the limit, Chuanfa Long Python, Chuanjinnuo, etc. followed up, the basic chemical index will decline as a whole in 2023, and the economic data in the first quarter of 2024 will exceed expectations.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index opened low on Wednesday and failed to rebound strongly, showing three consecutive negative trends in the intraday. The sharp fall of brokerage stocks, resulting in the index has never had obvious signs of rebound, here we should pay attention to the changes in the market, especially after the loosening of financial stocks, there is no sign of capital protection, but also shows that the main funds here are at their own pace, there is no obvious willingness to protect the disk. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3120 points.
The ChiNext index continued to be suppressed by the 5-day and 10-day lines on Wednesday, and this position should pay attention to the continued adjustment of small, medium and micro stocks and return to around 1800 points. The micro liquidity of the stock market is expected to further improve in the future, and more incremental funds such as northbound and public offerings are expected to be deployed, which is conducive to the market interpretation of core assets. The overall internal and external environment is conducive to the continued stabilization and improvement of the market, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward pattern in the future, while it is still necessary to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external factors.
Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1820 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
In the past month, the overall trend of the market has been volatile, the trading activity is not low, and the market style has changed again. With the advancement of new quality productivity and a new round of state-owned enterprise reform, state-owned enterprises are expected to continue to become an important force driving the development of the A-share M&A market with high market share and high M&A success rate. According to the traditional over/under style rotation framework, in an environment of economic upswing and tight liquidity, the large-cap style usually prevails. An improvement in the economy, liquidity or a phased squeeze are all conducive to the dominance of the broader market style.
The concepts of real estate, aquatic products, and household goods in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, while the concepts of Sora, securities, and CXO are the sectors with relatively large net outflows. Riding a bull and watching a bear found Since the end of April, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee put forward the policy direction of digesting the stock and optimizing the increment, all localities have stepped up efforts to relax the purchase restrictions, encourage the "old for the new" and other measures, last week in addition to Shenzhen's local optimization of purchase restrictions, Hangzhou, Xi'an completely opened the purchase restrictions. Although the sales data has not improved for the time being, the fundamentals have not continued to deteriorate, which means that it will not drag down the policy game.
In the short term, the real estate sector will continue, and at the same time, the market still has expectations for the further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, which may also play a certain role in supporting the follow-up plate market. However, whether there can be a more significant and sustainable market still depends on whether the national fundamentals can be realized in the end.
In the medium and long term, the real recovery of the property market is a sufficient and necessary condition for the continuation of the real estate sector. In the short term, whether the rise in the real estate sector can continue depends on the strength of policies in the coming period. Although it is too early for real estate stocks to talk about the margin of safety, and the fundamentals do not support the value, the value of the policy game is highlighted.
In the future, if there are more clear details for "digesting the stock of real estate", it may become an anchor for the recovery of this round of plates. At the local level, according to local government websites, purchase restrictions in non-core areas of Shenzhen have been relaxed, and purchase restrictions have been canceled in Hangzhou and Xi'an, leaving only first-tier and some areas in Hainan and Tianjin. The scope of trade-in continues to expand, and Zhengzhou's eight districts have fully implemented trade-in, with Shenzhen, Wuhan, Xi'an and other places all expressing support for trade-in.