Daily Golden Song: Nguyen Yanfei - "Fog and Long Wind"
► Shanghai Stock Exchange: As of May 12, the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges have issued annual report inquiry letters to more than 130 listed companies. The annual report inquiry letter reflects some new features and trends, and the inquiry content is more specific and detailed, asking about the authenticity of the financial situation in multiple dimensions, paying more attention to the inquiry of intermediaries, and paying more attention to overseas business and research and development.
► Caixin: Since May, shipping from China to North America has suddenly become "difficult to find" and freight rates have soared, and a large number of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises have faced the problem of difficult and expensive shipping. On May 13, the Shanghai export container settlement freight index (US-West route) reached 2,508 points, up 37% from May 6 and 38.5% from the end of April.
► Guolian Securities: It is planned to purchase 100% of the shares of Minsheng Securities held by 46 counterparties such as Guolian Group and Fengquanyu through the issuance of A shares, and raise matching funds. The price of the transaction has not yet been determined. According to relevant regulations, the company's shares will resume trading from the opening of the market on May 15.
Macroeconomic
1. Interface News: OpenAI has launched a faster and cheaper AI model to support its chatbot ChatGPT. The model is trained on a large amount of data from the internet, is better at processing text and audio, and supports 50 languages. The new model will be available to all users, not just paying users.
2. National Railway Administration: In April, the national railway passenger volume was 360.15 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The total investment in railway fixed assets reached 184.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
3. CDC: At present, the JN.1 variant is still the dominant circulating strain in the world, and KP.2 is the third-generation subclade of the Omicron JN.1 variant of the new coronavirus. As of May 12, a total of 25 KP.2 sequences have been monitored in mainland China. The proportion of KP.2 in the weekly reported local sequences ranged from 0.05% to 0.30%, which was at a very low level.
4. United States: In April, PPI rose 2.2% year-on-year, estimated at 2.2%, and the previous value was 2.1%; Month-on-month, it rose 0.5%, with an estimate of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%.
Real estate dynamics
1. Yucheng City, Shandong Province: Carry out the activity of "buying a house and sending consumption vouchers", and issue consumption vouchers to the first 500 buyers who purchase new commercial residences from May 15 to December 31 and complete the online signature filing, and issue 10,000 yuan of consumption vouchers for each residence, while supplies last. When a home buyer buys a house with consumption vouchers, the developer will deduct the purchase price according to the same amount.
2. Dingzhou City, Hebei Province: For the purchase of the first house, the loan amount shall not exceed 80% of the housing price, that is, the down payment ratio shall not be less than 20%; For the purchase of a second home, the loan amount shall not exceed 70% of the housing price, that is, the down payment ratio shall not be less than 30%.
3. Shenzhen, Guangdong Province: From May 6 to 12, a total of 450 new homes were sold, up 40.6% month-on-month; A total of 1,165 second-hand residential units were sold, up 231.9% month-on-month, and the number of single-week transfers hit a new high in nearly three years since May 2021.
Stock market stock
1. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3145.77 points, down 0.07%, with a turnover of 370.070 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9668.73 points, down 0.05%, with a turnover of 454.492 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1855.60 points, down 0.26%, with a turnover of 192.341 billion. Overall, stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 3,400 stocks rose in the whole market. The turnover of the two cities was 824.6 billion, a decrease of 85.2 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, civil explosives, games, automobiles, household light industry and other sectors were among the top gainers, while cell immunotherapy, coal, synthetic biology, glyphosate and other sectors were among the top decliners.
2. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.22% to 19,073.71 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.57% to 4,041.45 points. The state-owned enterprises index fell 0.30% to 6,741.41 points. On the disk, biotechnology, medicine, pork, sports and other sectors are among the top gainers; Semiconductors, aviation, oil, domestic insurance stocks, coal and other sectors fell. Dongfang Selection rose by more than 12%, Great Wall Motors rose by more than 7%, Leapmotor rose by more than 6%, and Bilibili rose by more than 4%; Agile Group fell more than 12%. Southbound funds sold a net of HK$115 million. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought 386 million Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net sold 502 million Hong Kong dollars.
3. As of May 14, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on that day. The total market value was 339.351 billion yuan, and the transaction value was 3.069 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of May 13, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 792.363 billion yuan, an increase of 1.534 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 703.041 billion yuan, an increase of 358 million yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1495.404 billion yuan, an increase of 1.892 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
5. CITIC Securities: The consumer battery industry has a broad space, and manufacturers have experienced a comprehensive destocking cycle, which is expected to restart with the consumer electronics cycle. The industry pattern is stable, the integration ability of enterprises in the core links is improved, technology and channels are the core competitiveness of manufacturers, and East Asia occupies a dominant position in the industrial chain. The industry is accelerating the trend of sinicization of the industrial chain, overseas manufacturers are making efforts to move the storage track, and domestic enterprises are accelerating customer expansion and increasing their share; Technological innovations such as steel shells and silicon anodes have boosted the value of products, and emerging consumer products such as AI PCs and MR equipment have provided the industry with incremental space in the future.
6. Shanghai Securities News: Since April, more than 240 listed companies have been investigated by hundreds of institutions, among which machinery and equipment, power electronics, and medicine and biology have become the three industries with the highest research popularity. The orders in hand and capacity utilization rate of listed companies, the progress of mergers and acquisitions, and the progress of internationalization are the key focus of institutions.
7. China Securities News: At a time when deposit interest rates continue to fall, the dividend yield of some sectors and stocks in the A-share market far exceeds the fixed deposit interest rate, becoming a "sweet spot" in the eyes of investors. As of May 13, the high-dividend strategy index has risen by 19.7% this year, significantly outperforming the market.
8. Star Power (3 boards): issued an announcement on the risk warning of stock trading. The company's shares closed on May 10, May 13 and May 14 for three consecutive trading days. Stock prices have risen significantly recently, and there may be downside risks after short-term gains.
9. Alibaba: For the quarter ended March 31, 2024, revenue was 221.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; net profit was 919 million yuan, down 96% year-on-year.
10. Tencent Holdings: revenue in the first quarter was 159.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; The adjusted net profit was 50.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%. In the first quarter, revenue from online advertising increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB26.5 billion, while revenue from fintech and corporate services increased by 7% year-on-year to RMB52.3 billion.
11. Beijing Lier: Luoyang Lier Refractories Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, intends to sell 146950771000000000000 shares of Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. to Guolian Securities, and subscribe for the newly issued A shares of Guolian Securities with the underlying assets.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Ding Xuexiang, Vice Premier of the State Council: It is necessary to continue to tap the potential and broaden the employment channels of college graduates, stabilize the stock of jobs, expand the incremental scale, and help graduates achieve employment as soon as possible. Greater efforts should be made to develop market-oriented jobs, make full use of the policy of stabilizing jobs and promoting employment, and develop more jobs in combination with major projects, major projects, and major measures to expand domestic demand.
2. Hong Kong Tourism Board: From January to April, the number of visitors to Hong Kong reached 14.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 1 times. Vouchers of HK$200 per person will be issued to visitors from the eight new "Individual Visit Scheme" cities to welcome Mainland visitors to spend in Hong Kong.
3. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. After the May Day holiday, the routes of container transportation ushered in a comprehensive surge, what are the driving factors behind it? How sustainable is it? How will the supply and demand pattern of the industry change in the future? Friends of the money, quickly row to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking # The off-season "rise" of the shipping industry continues
Industry Watch
1. China Securities News: With the rapid development of the new energy industry, the transformation of energy digital intelligence is accelerating. Virtual power plants have the ability to regulate on a large scale, and their supporting role in the new power system is becoming more and more important, and the economy is prominent. In this context, relevant listed companies are actively deploying and accelerating the construction of virtual power plants.
2. Shanghai Securities News: Since April, a number of listed companies such as Baoming Technology, China Soft Technology, and Black Sesame have announced the termination or suspension of the construction of new projects. For "abandoning" new projects, the relevant companies say roughly the same, the market environment is changing rapidly, and it cannot be rushed forward. Most of the companies that pressed the "termination button" of the project were enterprises that had previously "crossed" into the field of lithium battery materials.
3. Passenger Association: In April, the pickup truck market sold 44,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.1%, which was at a mid-to-high level in the past five years. Since the pickup base was relatively normal in April last year, the growth rate this year is better. From January to April, pickup truck sales were 173,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and the overall performance was good.
4. WPIC: The platinum market will continue to be in short supply this year as the slowdown in the electric vehicle boom supports the demand for automotive exhaust purification catalysts. Platinum demand climbed to its highest level since 2017 in the first quarter and is expected to grow by about 2% for the full year. Slowing demand growth for electric vehicles, stricter emission regulations, and demand for palladium substitution are driving platinum consumption.
5. IDC: In 2023, the size of China's SD-WAN market will be 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Under the trend of globalization, enterprises are increasingly demanding efficient cross-region and cross-network connections, and SD-WAN applications in various industries continue to expand. China's SD-WAN market will continue to grow at a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next five years.
6. TrendForce: The total shipment of OLED desktop displays in the first quarter was about 200,000 units, with an annual growth rate of 121%. In the second quarter, after the launch of new brand phones, the growth rate in the current quarter is expected to reach 52%, and the total shipment in the first half of the year can reach 500,000 units.
7. Canalys: In the first quarter, the global TWS (true wireless) earphone market shipped 65 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the top five were Apple, Xiaomi, Samsung, boAt and Huawei. In the global market, Apple's shipments fell 8% year-on-year, but it still ranked first with 16 million, with a market share of 25%.
8. SEMI: The global semiconductor manufacturing industry showed signs of improvement in the first quarter, and the industry growth is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year. In addition, fab capacity continues to increase, with an estimated 1.2% increase in capacity of more than 40 million wafers per quarter, and is expected to grow by 1.4% in the second quarter, with China still having the highest capacity growth rate among all regions.
Company news
1. Every Jingwang: A platform called "Tanke Cha" is selling the personal information of entrepreneurs on a large scale, claiming to cover "200 million + enterprise databases" and "1 billion + clue contact information", and the mobile phone numbers of many well-known entrepreneurs such as Zhong Sui, the founder of Nongfu Spring, are sold on the platform.
2. Ecovacs: We have cooperated with Huawei in the smart home ecosystem for many years, and we are also one of Huawei's first smart home ecosystem partners.
3. SoftBank Group: It is reported that it has committed to five investments in the field of artificial intelligence, each with an investment scale of $1 billion.
Global vision
1. Huanqiu.com: The White House announced on May 14 that it would impose tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, cranes, and medical supplies. Tariffs on electric vehicles in China will be increased to 100% from the current 25%. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
2. South Korean government: In March, the total fiscal expenditure was 85.1 trillion won (about 450.4 billion yuan), the highest in a single month. In March 2019, before the outbreak of the pandemic, fiscal spending was 49 trillion won, an increase of 73.7% in five years.
Financial data
domestic
1. New Third Board: On May 14, a total of 6,138 companies were listed, a decrease of 2 on the same day, with a turnover of 197 million. The three-board component index was reported at 827.89, up 0.12%, with a turnover of 95 million.
2. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close of the afternoon of May 14, there were mutual ups and downs. Shanghai tin rose more than 4%, rapeseed oil, peanuts, etc. rose more than 2%, ethylene glycol, palm oil, etc. rose more than 1%, pulp, beans and other slight increases; Manganese silicon fell by more than 5%, coking coal, container transportation European line fell by more than 3%, eggs, sugar, etc. fell by more than 2%, glass, caustic soda, etc. fell by more than 1%, and rebar, SS, etc. fell slightly.
3. Treasury bonds: On May 14, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 rose 0.01% to 101.726, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 rose 0.03% to 103.430, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.02% to 104.465. The 10-year Treasury rate rose 0.38bp to 2.29%; The 10-year CDB rate rose 0.30bp to 2.36%.
4. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On May 14, the main crude oil futures contract 2407 closed at 616.8 yuan / barrel, up 2.5 yuan, or 0.41%. The total number of contracts traded was 90,590 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,559 lots to 56,760 lots. The main contract traded 28,948 lots, and the open interest decreased by 157 lots to 24,517 lots.
5. Central Bank: On May 14, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out on the same day, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase on the same day, zero investment and zero withdrawal were realized.
6. Shibor: 1.7690% overnight, down 1.20 basis points. The 7-day trade was at 1.8370%, up 0.10 basis points. The 3-month is at 1.9770%, down 0.60 basis points.
7. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2377 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 0.0415%, and the central parity of the RMB was reported at 7.1053, down 0.0324%.
8. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On May 14, the trading volume of the carbon emission allowance listing agreement in the national carbon market was 250 tons, with a turnover of 24,800 yuan and a closing price of 97.84 yuan/ton, up 0.87%.
abroad
9. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.46% to 38,356.06 points. South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.11% to 2,730.30.
10. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 0.32% at 39,558.11, the Nasdaq closed up 0.75% at 16,511.18, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.48% at 5,246.68.
11. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.16% at 8,428.13 points, Germany's DAX30 closed down 0.14% at 18,716.42 points, and France's CAC40 closed up 0.2% at 8,225.8 points.
12. Gold: COMEX gold futures closed up 0.87% at $2363.5 an ounce.
13. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures settled down 1.39% at $78.02 per barrel; Brent crude futures settled down 1.18% at $82.38 a barrel.
14. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: down 3.53% to 1993 points.
· The off-season "rise" of the shipping industry continues·
► General Administration of Customs: In the first four months, the growth rate of imports and exports accelerated compared with the first quarter, and the scale hit a new high in the same period in history, and the mainland's foreign trade maintained an upward trend. In the first four months of 2024, the total value of mainland trade in goods was 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Among them, exports increased by 4.9% and imports increased by 6.8%. In dollar terms, imports and exports, exports and imports also increased by 2.2%, 1.5% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, in the first four months; Looking at the monthly data, imports, exports and exports increased by 2.4% and 4.6% month-on-month in April.
► Industrial Securities: The United States has ended the one-and-a-half-year destocking cycle and started replenishment. As interest rates peak and fall in 2023, demand for goods in the United States has begun to pick up again, the manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) has recovered, and the divergence with the service sector has also narrowed significantly. China can benefit from the pick-up in demand for U.S. goods. On the one hand, the drag on the contribution of U.S. imports from China has narrowed significantly; On the other hand, ASEAN and other economies need to use a large number of intermediate goods imported from China in their exports to the United States, and ASEAN intermediate goods are becoming more and more dependent on China, so China can also benefit indirectly. Among them, equipment, furniture, textiles and other industries with high dependence on China's exports have all shown signs of replenishment.
► Guosen Securities: The shipping sector ushered in a good start after May Day, and the various routes of container shipping ushered in a comprehensive surge, SCFI rose 18.8% last week, of which the European line/Mediterranean/West Coast/East Line rose 24.7%/21.0%/22.0%/19.3% month-on-month respectively, the impact of the current Red Sea conflict is still ongoing, and the retail replenishment in Europe and the United States has promoted the recovery of industry demand, and some ports in Europe began to block ports this week, similar to the supply chain disruption in 2021, once the main trunk line begins to be delayed, It will siphon the capacity of other routes, and if the congestion cannot be solved, the container freight rate is expected to exceed expectations again. The volatility of the current freight rate reflects that the industry's capacity has been tight, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve as the industry supply enters a gap period in 2024-2025.
► Dongguan Securities: The scope of the Red Sea crisis has expanded, and the supply and demand of shipping have tightened. Maersk predicts that the Red Sea crisis will lead to a 15-20% reduction in actual capacity across the industry on the Far East-Mediterranean and Far East-Nordic routes. The global shipping leader has increased freight rates many times. Due to the large fluctuations in the price of container shipping before, there are still many enterprises that have not signed a long-term agreement with the liner company, and it is expected that the sharp price increase of the shipping industry will lead to a further increase in the price center of the long-term agreement in the coming year, and increase the profits of shipping enterprises. The increase in sanctions against Russia may lead to the elimination of a large number of oil tanker capacity. According to Sindh Maritime and BRS, there are currently about 787 tankers in the global shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil cargoes, accounting for about 8.5% of the global fleet, compared to just 675 at the end of last year. Considering that the current long-term agreement is signed and the tight shipping capacity may be further intensified, it is expected that global shipping companies with European line business will benefit significantly in 2024, and the performance center is expected to improve.
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They are both dissatisfied with the status quo, but the means to break the status quo are different: one is innovation, the other is retro. - Lu Xun