According to the Observer, the relationship between the current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and former President Duterte is becoming increasingly tense due to differences over China policy and other issues, which may lead to a rupture between two important political families in the Philippines.
Duterte made it clear that it is normal for the Philippines to maintain bilateral relations with the United States, but it would be wrong if foreign policy was distorted and blindly following the United States as favoritism or hostility to a certain country.
He criticized the current administration for using the South China Sea and Taiwan issues as the basis of its foreign policy toward China, pointing out that the South China Sea was originally calm, but the U.S. intervention has sparked disputes.
Duterte expressed sorrow over the current changes in China-Philippines relations and hopes that the relationship between the two countries can be repaired. At the same time, the contradictions between the Marcos family and the Duterte family gradually became public.
If Marcos fails to properly manage relations with China, this will provide Duterte with an opportunity to attack. Recently, Duterte has begun to speak out, deploring the deterioration of Sino-Philippine relations and wanting direct dialogue with China.
On the South China Sea issue, he once again stressed that the calm in the South China Sea was broken by US intervention.
Duterte, who has a strong sense of the situation, warned of war last year, pointing out that the Philippines could be drawn into a conflict between China and the United States.
In fact, peaceful dialogue and cooperation have been the Philippines' approach to its relations with China over the past few years. However, since the Marcos administration took office, at the instigation of the United States, Japan and other countries, the Philippines has violated the tacit understanding and consensus between China and the Philippines in an attempt to change the status quo in the South China Sea and challenge China's bottom line.
The Marcos administration has not only carried out continuous provocations in the waters of Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, but has also held joint military exercises with the United States and Japan, allowing the United States to deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines to threaten China. This foreign policy, which relies entirely on the United States, threatens to plunge the Philippines into war. Duterte said he did not believe the U.S. claims and believed that the U.S. would not die for the Philippines if it was instigated by the U.S. to go to war.
On the issue of territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the two sides have reached a "gentlemen's agreement" to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea and avoid conflict and confrontation. However, that calm has been shattered since Marcos took over, with tensions escalated by the Philippines' frequent military exercises in the South China Sea, with the United States and other countries.
In response to the Philippine misconduct, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland issued a stern warning, demanding that the Philippine side tow away the illegally detained vessel as soon as possible and bear the consequences.
Philippine National Security Adviser Arnold has publicly stated that the current administration is not aware of the existence of the so-called "gentlemen's agreement", and said that if it exists, it has been abolished. The Marcos administration's pro-US foreign policy of containing China has led to increasing tensions in the region, not only isolated by ASEAN countries, but also led to the almost stagnation or even withdrawal of Chinese investment in the Philippines.
Duterte once warned of the existence of the "gentlemen's agreement", but Marcos ignored it, and instead became closer to the United States, actively participating in the United States' containment of China and interference in the Taiwan issue, thus undermining China-Philippines relations.
Now the Marcos administration has completely and publicly torn up the "gentlemen's agreement". Since last year, the Philippines has frequently stirred up turmoil in the South China Sea by taking advantage of the broken ships illegally detained at Second Thomas Shoal to undermine the hard-won peace situation.
Recently, the Philippine defense secretary once again denied the "new model" agreed between China and the Philippines on the Ren'ai Jiao transportation and replenishment, and declared that it was "trying to create another lie" by China. In addition, he refused to acknowledge any of the contents of the "gentlemen's agreement" that the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines discussed or listened to during the "courtesy visit."
As the situation in the South China Sea continues to escalate, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated China's position on the denial by senior Philippine government officials that they had negotiated with China to reach an arrangement on the control of Second Thomas Shoal.
Lin Jian pointed out that the Philippine side's remarks cannot deny the objective fact that China and the Philippines have reached a "gentlemen's agreement", internal understanding and a "new model", and urged the Philippine side to abide by the basic norms of international exchanges, respect facts, keep promises, stop infringement and provocation, and earnestly return to the right track of properly handling differences through dialogue and consultation.
Since the Marcos administration took office, the Philippines has been making a steady stream of provocative actions in the South China Sea, clearly aimed at escalating regional tensions. Although Marcos brazenly declared that he did not want to escalate tensions, he was actually covering up the truth.
If the Philippines is truly sincere about peace in the South China Sea, then they should not continue to provoke disputes, let alone try to confront China by co-opting external forces such as the United States. In this series of absurd and capricious actions, the Philippines' international credibility has been trampled to the ground by themselves.
A recent article published on the website of the US bimonthly magazine "The National Interest" pointed out that the US instigation of the Philippines to provoke in the South China Sea will only exacerbate tensions, undermine regional security, and directly affect the security, prosperity and well-being of the United States.
The article argues that a peaceful "Indo-Pacific" region depends on the United States and China learning to coexist with each other, rather than developing broader security relationships. The Biden administration's insistence on defining international affairs as a major struggle between democracies and autocracies and defining it as the cornerstone of regional partnerships has made the situation worse.
As can be seen from the article, whether it is the South China Sea, the Diaoyu Islands, or even Ren'ai Jiao, these places are very far away from the United States and have no impact on the United States. However, the confrontation with China in these places could have significant implications for the United States.
Therefore, the United States should not and does not deserve to stand against China, or even go to war, for these things. For example, if there is a war between China and the Philippines and the United States fulfills the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and sends ships, carriers, soldiers and fighter jets to the battlefield, how useful can it be?
And what do you get?
In reality, this will not do anything, but may teach the United States a lesson: Don't be an enemy of China. The result would be a complete face-to-face with China.
Peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region depend on the ability of China and the United States to live together peacefully, not on U.S. adventures thousands of miles away or on so-called broader security relationships with other countries.
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