Recently, international oil prices have continued to fall, and the mainland will also carry out a new round of refined oil price adjustment on May 15. Industry analysts predict that this round of adjustment may reach 220 yuan / ton, the largest decline this year, and 92 gasoline in some areas is expected to return to the era of 7 yuan. This news undoubtedly overjoyed the majority of car owners.
Tracing back to the source, international oil prices have risen sharply since the beginning of this year, and the prices of refined oil products on the mainland have also been raised one after another. In the first four months of 2022 alone, the cumulative increase in No. 92 gasoline reached 1.28 yuan/liter. This directly led to the sales price of refined oil products in the mainland hitting a record high. Taking No. 92 gasoline as an example, the national average price once reached 8.59 yuan/liter. It is undoubtedly worse for the majority of car owners.
Fortunately, since May, international oil prices have continued to decline under the influence of multiple factors such as the increase in upstream crude oil supply and weak downstream demand. Brent crude oil prices have fallen more than 18% from their highs. This has laid the groundwork for the price adjustment of refined oil products. Industry insiders predict that if the current international oil price trend is followed, this round of reduction may reach 220 yuan/ton, which will exceed the largest adjustment since the beginning of the year.
Specific to the retail link, this means that the price of No. 92 gasoline may be reduced by 0.17-0.2 yuan/liter in various places. The price of No. 92 gasoline in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia and other places is expected to return to the era of 7 yuan. Oil prices in other regions and other varieties will also be lowered to varying degrees. This will undoubtedly "relieve the worries" of consumers who are troubled by high oil prices.
The survey shows that the current domestic price of refined oil is not too far from the historical high. This relatively large reduction will help further alleviate the burden of refueling on consumers. However, we should also note that there is still uncertainty about the trend of international oil prices.
On the one hand, the upstream OPEC+ production cut agreement has supported crude oil supply. On the other hand, the epidemic in the middle and lower reaches and the economic downturn have suppressed the demand for oil products. The key to the future of international oil prices depends on the game between the two. In addition, changes in the RMB exchange rate will also have an impact on the price of refined oil products.
It is worth noting that even if this round of adjustment is large, there is still a certain gap from the pre-epidemic level. According to estimates, the average price of No. 92 gasoline in mainland China in 2020 will be about 6.26 yuan/liter. Even if it falls back to the era of 7 yuan after this round of adjustment, the actual increase is still more than 10% compared with the pre-epidemic period.
On May 15, this round of refined oil price adjustment may record the largest decline this year, and the price of No. 92 gasoline in some areas is expected to return to the era of 7 yuan, which is of positive significance for alleviating the current high oil price pressure. However, in order to form a sustained downward trend, it is necessary to continue to weaken international oil prices and stabilize the RMB exchange rate. Car owners should pay attention to the latest price trends of refined oil at any time, rationally expect and wait patiently.
Looking ahead, the trend of oil prices will be affected by a number of factors. First, the global economic situation, the recovery momentum of major economies will affect the demand for oil products. Second, OPEC+'s supply policy directly affects the supply of crude oil and oil products. The third is the geopolitical situation, mainly the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Fourth, changes in the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the mainland's macroeconomic situation and epidemic prevention and control measures will also have an impact on oil consumption.
For policymakers, it is necessary to consider the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic development, as well as the rights and interests of oil companies. On the one hand, measures such as reserve adjustment can be used in a timely manner to stabilize oil price fluctuations. On the other hand, it is necessary to continue to promote the market-oriented reform of the oil industry and form a more transparent and flexible oil price formation mechanism.
Consumers should raise their awareness of risks and do a good job in cost expectation management. First, the rational planning of car use, the choice of residence and work place should consider the cost of transportation. The second is to optimize the way of using cars and use public transportation appropriately. The third is to choose the right model, buy and use new energy vehicles with more fuel consumption advantages.
Oil price volatility is a global phenomenon that requires a concerted response. It is expected that with the efforts of all parties, a stable and moderate price of refined oil products can be gradually formed, so that it can not only reflect the changes in market supply and demand, but also will not cause excessive impact on economic development and people's livelihood. Let the "cat" of oil prices no longer easily "bark", and help the steady and healthy development of the economy and society.