Trillions of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are about to open!
On May 13, the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on Announcing the Relevant Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds in 2024, according to which the maturity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds includes 20-year, 30-year and 50-year tenors, all of which are paid on a semi-annual basis.
Among them, the 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bond (phase I) is a 30-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bond, which will be tendered and issued on May 17, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan in competitive bidding.
On May 13,
The reporter learned from a number of banks in Guangdong that
At present, we have not received any notice of sale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.
As for whether to issue to individual investors,
Further notice from the relevant departments is still to be obtained.
Ultra-long-term special government bonds
Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds refer to treasury bonds with an issuance period of not less than 10 years, issued in stages during a specific period of time, and with specific purposes, which are not included in the deficit or increase the deficit rate.
This round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will focus on accelerating the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas, promoting coordinated regional development, improving the security capacity of food and energy resources, promoting high-quality population development, and comprehensively promoting the construction of a beautiful China.
The issuance cycle exceeded market expectations
The purpose of issuance is highly correlated with high-quality development
Judging from the issuance arrangements of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds,
The issuance period is:
20-, 30-, and 50-year maturities,
Starting from May 17,
By the middle of November, the issuance is completed,
A total of 22 issuances,
The issuance time is mainly concentrated in the third quarter.
"This round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds has three outstanding characteristics: the issuance period is particularly long, the issuance is continuous and large-scale, and the correlation between the purpose of issuance and economic and high-quality development is particularly high." Lian Ping, President of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute and Chairman of China Chief Economist Forum, said that the 20~50-year special treasury bonds cover key time nodes such as 2030, 2035 and 2049, which can not only provide sufficient ultra-long-term funds for major projects and major projects with long construction cycles and slow return on investment, but also dilute the interest payment pressure of treasury bonds in the ultra-long-term period.
The reporter noted that judging from the issuance arrangement, the issuance cycle of 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds this year exceeded market expectations, and the pace of issuance was relatively flat. "This is conducive to avoiding the phased pressure on the capital side due to centralized issuance." Feng Lin, director of the research and development department of Oriental Jincheng, said.
Lin Jiang, a professor at the Department of Economics of Lingnan College of Sun Yat-sen University, pointed out that the extension of the issuance rhythm is, on the one hand, based on the current market environment, the extension of the issuance rhythm is in line with the law; In addition, the extension of the maturity is conducive to the gradual sale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds at a market-acceptable interest rate, and also allows the market sufficient time to repay the treasury bonds, and is conducive to the selection and implementation of relevant investment projects.
The supply shock to the bond market is limited
RRR and interest rate cuts may be implemented
From the perspective of the impact of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, Lian Ping analyzed that the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds can not only stimulate current investment and consumption, but also build a solid foundation for long-term high-quality development, and at the same time benefit local finances to recuperate, which will bring benefits in many aspects.
Lin Jiang pointed out that the current interest rate level is low, and the interest cost of issuing treasury bonds is relatively low. The issuance of trillion-yuan ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is likely to tighten market funds, and if the public subscription ratio is high, it may also indirectly push up interest rates. "From the perspective of economic stimulus, if it is put in place, it will help to pull the economy back through investment." Lin Jiang said.
In terms of the impact on the bond market, Feng Lin analyzed that the issuance cycle of special treasury bonds this year is relatively long and the pace is relatively slow, which smooths the supply pressure that its issuance may cause to the bond market. In addition, the market has long expected the supply pressure that may be caused by special treasury bonds, so the incremental negative impact of subsequent issuance on the bond market will be relatively limited. "On the contrary, it may be that the issuance cycle is longer than the market expects, which will boost the sentiment of the bond market." Feng Lin said.
Jin Yi, chief analyst of fixed income at Guohai Securities, said that in order to hedge the disturbance of the bond market caused by the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local bonds, and not to excessively raise the cost of fiscal issuance, the RRR and interest rate cuts in May and June are likely to be implemented.
or adopt market-oriented issuance
It is an ideal investment product
For the average investor,
Is it possible to purchase ultra-long-term special government bonds?
The reporter learned that whether individual investors can participate in the subscription depends on the specific issuance object. If it is a market-oriented approach, ordinary investors may have the opportunity to buy; If it is a private placement, it cannot be purchased by ordinary investors.
A number of industry experts said that the current round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is more likely to be issued in the market. "Judging from the bidding arrangement, the issuance of special treasury bonds should be market-oriented, rather than directional." Feng Lin said that the adoption of market-oriented issuance, on the one hand, reflects the determination to promote the market-oriented pricing of bond issuance, and on the other hand, it is also conducive to mobilizing all kinds of social funds to participate in the construction of major projects in key areas.
Jin Yi believes that with the increase in the number of participants in the treasury bond market and the improvement of liquidity, the pressure on the market from the supply of treasury bonds has decreased, and in recent years, the government has become more inclined to adopt the method of full market-oriented issuance. This round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may adopt the method of market-oriented issuance, and reduce the position of banking institutions in ultra-long-term treasury bonds by introducing long-term funds from non-bank institutions such as insurance, thereby alleviating the risk of "maturity mismatch" in the banking industry. In addition, if the current round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is put on the market through market-oriented issuance, it may alleviate the current situation of "lack of assets" to a certain extent, so that the supply and demand of the bond market will be more balanced.
However, some people in the banking industry said that the maturity of treasury bonds is too long, and it may be difficult for ordinary individual customers to accept it, but the specific issuance will have to wait for the notice to be determined.
Lian Ping suggested that in order to promote the smooth issuance of this round of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, consideration should be given to the issuance of both institutions and individuals. Of course, the target of the issuance of specific bond batches can be appropriately focused on and distinguished. "Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are guaranteed by national credit, which has the advantages of low risk, strong liquidity, exemption from interest income tax, etc., and the yield is higher than that of short- and medium-term treasury bonds, so it is an ideal investment product." Lian Ping said.
Review: A total of five special government bonds have been issued
Previously, the mainland had issued a total of five special treasury bonds, including three new issuances (1998, 2007, 2020) and two sequels (2017 and 2022). Judging from the issuance period of previous special treasury bonds, the short ones are only 3 years, the 5~10 years are relatively concentrated, and the longest is 30 years.
Source: Guangzhou Daily