The price of live pigs rises and falls, and it is basically still a "pestle in place". However, the signal of pig price increase is becoming more and more obvious, and it is also more and more directly pointing out the degree of lack of pigs in the back - the realization of the cut-off period.
Hello friends who raise pigs, today is May 14, 2024, it has not been updated for a long time, and the reason for the lack of update is very simple, that is, pigs have not yet entered the rising channel, and there is no need to over-interpret the twists and turns in the process.
From now on, I will update it every day, the main reason is that the upward signal is getting clearer and clearer, and I want to witness those who are slapped in the face, haha, I am also ready to be slapped in the face at any time.
In May, the pig price became a "pot of porridge", and pig enterprises began to greatly increase the amount of slaughter, and the result was that "the lice on the bald head - obvious", and the price began again!
But pig prices have fallen to freezing point and have officially begun to reverse. This reversal does not mean that the price of pigs will rise every day in the future, and it is impossible to say that the price of pigs will skyrocket in the short term, but - the sesame seeds are blooming higher and higher, and one wave is stronger than the other.
Before June, the price of live pigs will grind for half a month, and then the price of live pigs will begin to rise in a sprinkling market, we will wait and see.
The sow herd of the group's large farm is almost the same as last year, about 12 million heads, and the inventory of retail investors has decreased by about 15% compared with last year.
1. The big fat in January ~ April last year did not enter the market for digestion, but entered the cold storage in the slaughterhouse, and no one knows this magnitude, and it can only be assessed as about 10 million heads.
On the contrary in January ~ April this year, almost no cold storage has been entered, the main reason is that there is too much inventory, and now the price of hairy pigs can be maintained at about 15 yuan, which is already very good. In other words, the market is full of people who say that consumption is not good, and you are a big-headed ghost.
2. Last year's sow elimination was divided into two situations: one was active elimination, the other was passive elimination, and most of the passive elimination was due to "Xiaofei".
The active culling of sows will not reduce the number of fattening pigs until a year later. Passive culling of sows will reflect a decline in the number of pens in the second month of culling.
To sum up, it can be deduced that this year's pig gap, which can also be called the "break period", began in June, that is, Xiaobian has been thinking about it, the real rise in pig prices, or the time of the big rise is in June, that is, the last month of the first half of the year.
In other words, the hotter the weather, the higher the price of pigs, and the so-called analysts must be killed. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
On May 14, 2024, the national pig farmers sold pig quotation reference
Heilongjiang Daqing 230-300 kg 7.4 yuan/jin, medium pig 300~400 kg 7.3 yuan/jin, large pig 390 or more 7.4 yuan/jin; Liaoning Fuxin 210~320 kg or so, 7.3~7.4 yuan/jin; Henan Zhumadian standard pig 7.5 yuan / catty; Guangxi 7.5 yuan/jin; Shandong Yantai standard pig 7.8 yuan / catty; Shanxi Hongdong 230~280 jin 7.55 yuan/jin, 300 or more 7.3 yuan/jin, 320 jin or more 7.35 yuan/jin; Liaoning Chang icon pig 7.3 ~ 7.4 yuan / jin, 280 kg more than 7.45 yuan, 350 ~ 360 kg 7.6 ~ 7.7 yuan / jin, 420 kg pig 8.4 ~ 9.5 yuan / jin; Hebei Cangzhou standard pig 7.45 ~ 7.8 yuan / jin, medium pig 7.23 ~ 7.5 yuan / jin;