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On May 13, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Doi-yeol visited China and held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which was the first official visit to China by a South Korean foreign minister since 2017, and there are expected to be some new changes in the relationship between China and South Korea. During the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that the economic and trade cooperation between China and South Korea is large-scale and highly complementary, and the trade volume between the two countries will exceed 310 billion US dollars in 2023, and there is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and South Korea.
Such a remark can be said to be serious and long-term, and at the same time more in line with reality. Over the past 30 years, South Korea's rapid economic growth has been driven by trade with China. Among the world's major economies, South Korea's economy is not large, but the trade volume between China and South Korea in 2023 is 310 billion US dollars, which is higher than the trade volume between China and Germany. When relations between China and South Korea were stable, South Korea received a large trade surplus from China, which laid the foundation for South Korea's economic take-off. From all angles, South Korea should not cause problems for China on economic and trade issues, and even during the administrations of Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, the economic and trade relations between the two countries have not been substantially impacted.
The South Korean government has changed, but the economic and trade relations between China and South Korea have remained unchanged, which has been the norm of South Korea's China policy in the past few decades. But after Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, that norm has been broken. On the same day as the South Korean Foreign Minister's visit to China, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mu also said that South Korea would promote a semiconductor support plan of more than 10 trillion won. You must know that South Korea's semiconductor-related policies in the past two years have been following the United States, and if nothing else, this plan will contain a lot of content to decouple from Chinese semiconductors and become part of the United States' containment of China's semiconductor industry development.
In other words, South Korea's economic policy is still more inclined to the United States, and South Korea under the leadership of Yoon Suk-yeol has broken the practice since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea and has begun to confront China in both military and economic aspects. What Yoon wants is a triple alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, and as Xing Haiming, China's ambassador to South Korea, said, the current South Korean government is betting on the United States to win and China to lose. Such a shift would be a strategic miscalculation for South Korea. Although South Korea is recognized as a developed country, in fact, its economic development is heavily dependent on foreign trade, and it is difficult for South Korea to achieve American-style small courtyards with high walls.
To take the simplest example, South Korea has been in a surplus position in trade with China since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, but in 2023, South Korea's trade with China will suddenly turn from a surplus to a deficit, which is a dangerous signal for the South Korean economy. In fact, South Korea does not have the economic strength to compete with China. Take South Korea's 10 trillion won semiconductor support plan as an example, even if all these funds are in place, it will be more than 50 billion yuan, while China's Huawei company invested more than 160 billion yuan in R&D last year alone. South Korea's small actions are not worth mentioning at all in the face of China's huge economy.
For South Korea, the best way is to repair economic and trade relations with China as soon as possible and get the relationship back on track. South Korea's economic pillars are semiconductors, automobiles, shipbuilding, and electronics, and China has completed catching up with South Korea in these items. Moreover, China is the largest industrial country in the world, and once it has an advantage in a certain field, it will be difficult for other countries to compete with China. South Korea should not forget this. If you look back at history, you will find that before Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, South Korea did not completely turn to the United States, insisting on seeking a balance between China and the United States, and the United States did not necessarily do anything to South Korea.
Now Yoon Suk-yeol frequently hypes up the so-called China threat, follows in the footsteps of the United States to decouple from China, break the chain, and actively participate in the anti-China encirclement of the United States, which is tantamount to lifting a stone to shoot himself in the foot. The ROK foreign minister's visit to China this time should be aimed at seeking improvement in relations with China, but how much it can improve and how much sincerity it will show depends on the ROK's own choice.