Today's market is not alarmed, the morning rush began to wilt, the rhythm of a small shock throughout the day, the three major stock indexes finally only a breath and failed to turn red, individual stocks seem to rise more and fall less, but the rise of more than 5% of the stocks is only about 220, most of the stocks are just messing around, such a small increase, you have no room to operate at all, there is not much money to chase up, and naturally there is less money to kill the fall, so that the amount can shrink sharply to 820 billion, the market gives people a feeling of lifelessness, The three major indices closed a small black doji, is this a signal of a change?
Although the rebound is weak and weak, it can be regarded as a rebound, and there are some bright spots:
1. The volume can shrink sharply, but there are 3,468 rising stocks, 1,681 falling stocks, 81 up limits, and 40 falling limits.
2. Today, the outflow of domestic institutions is 13.8 billion, and the outflow amount has been greatly reduced. Don't expect domestic capital to go long, as long as the outflow of domestic capital is greatly reduced and the market is not smashed, the market can stabilize slightly. The outflow of foreign capital yesterday was 4.6 billion, and today it is estimated that it is a rhythm of inflow. Without a big positive stimulus, foreign capital will maintain a pattern of a small rise and a small fall.
3, this afternoon securities force, bottoming out, of course, the impact of the brokerage on the index is greater, but there is no appeal, the brokerage suddenly pulled up in the afternoon, and did not bring the index to rebound quickly, it is obvious that the other weights did not follow the rebound of the securities, but took the opportunity to smash the market. It is indeed surprising that the securities have come out of the four consecutive yangs, but the securities have not been adjusted after the three consecutive yangs, and the probability of adjustment after the four consecutive yangs is greater. In addition to the weight, the securities have lost the role of the bull market standard-bearer, but they are just a scumbag, so there is no need to read too much about the rebound of brokers.
4. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still in a bullish trend, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext have closed the doji, is there a signal of upward change brewing in the short term?
Of course, my recent thinking is very clear, I think the index is tossing back and forth, can't set off any big waves, will not rise sharply, will not fall sharply, the operation can only be participated in when the sharp rise and fall can be participated, small rise and fall on the sidelines, it is really not easy to operate, just firmly hold the shares. Although it can't go up, it can't go down, and when it comes to a sharp fall, you must overcome your fear and dare to enter the market when it falls sharply.
Next, let's focus on a few topics and discuss them together?
1. Will the shrinking doji change?
As soon as you see the doji, everyone's first feeling may be to be handicap, the doji shows that the power of the long and short sides tends to be balanced, evenly matched, but this balance can not be sustained, so the victory or defeat is very empty.
To be honest, it's not that the Doji will choose the direction right away, and it is equally possible to collect a few more Dojis. Besides, there is no doji with energy, even if the market changes, there will not be much movement, this short-term rise and fall has nothing to do with the direction, not that the market must go up, and the market must go down. It's just a short-term option.
From my understanding, if the market wants to rise, first, it will smash down to gather the momentum of the rebound, and second, there will be a blockbuster stimulus, and the weight will form a joint force. Third, after smashing the pit downward, there is a big benefit. Judging from these three situations, the two and three of the day do not have, only one is possible, the big rise is like sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat, and now you can't go up, whether there is a good blessing, you can only smash it down first.
After May Day, the Shanghai index formed a gap, so far it has not been filled, and it has rebounded three times in a row by support in the gap position, so some people believe that the gap support is strong, as long as the gap is not filled, the market will continue to rebound, but some people also believe that the gap forms a psychological shadow for the bulls.
I don't think it's necessary to interpret the meaning of the gap too much, the gap left after May Day was stimulated by the surge in the external disk and the exchange rate during the holiday, since it is a gap formed by the stimulation of the boundary, he does not make a breakthrough formed by the momentum of his own long, then this gap must be filled, but the time to make up is not easy to grasp,
My point of view is clear, the short-term can't go up, and the hot spots on the disk rotate repeatedly and disorderly, which is a weak performance.
I say every day that the three elements of the market rise, the amount of energy, the main line, and the money-making effect, all three are indispensable, otherwise they will either fluctuate or fall downward. The current market, whether it is the index rises or falls, everyone can not make money, but continue to lose money, who wants to participate in such a market, everyone is waiting, and domestic capital is constantly shorting, but the funds choose some large-market varieties to ensure that the index does not fall, but such a market can not arouse everyone's interest, no funds into the market, a rise, will immediately usher in a sell-off, such a market is easy to fall and difficult to rise.
Of course, we also have to continue to observe the changes in the news surface, if there is an important positive news surface, the probability of the market short-term upward will increase, but if there is no positive blessing, the short-term downward probability is larger.
2. How do you look at the increase in the price limit and the decrease in the fall limit today?
Today's limit is 81, but there are only about 50 stocks that have risen by more than 10%, and it is obvious that there are a large number of ST stocks that are also up and down. The logic of this price limit is in addition to some cap-picking varieties. Many of the reasons for the limit are over-falling, or news-driven to rise sharply. The varieties that have risen sharply are mostly small market capitalization, which is basically based on speculation, but the maximum number of days on the board is four days, indicating that the capital is also in the short speculation, and the heat of the market is obviously not enough.
The reason why there is more limit today is that it is difficult to say that the overall temperature of the market has increased. The hot spots of the day have been repeatedly rotated and switched, and most of the stocks with a daily limit are not sustainable.
3. How do you view the four consecutive yangs of securities?
The securities are four consecutive yang, which indeed exceeds expectations. Recently, we have repeatedly emphasized that in addition to the restructuring of the expected promotion of securities, there is really no other reason to rise, but more negative news, first of all, the decline in performance, the loss of support for future performance, and the second is that the negative news continues, almost all the violations of laws and regulations in this market are inseparable from the brokerage.
For brokers, restructuring can not actually bring about an increase in performance, but it is just a big fish eating small fish. Because the market size is so big. Restructuring hype is more just expected.
It often takes a long time for restructuring to land, and for A-shares, if the delisting cannot be accelerated, restructuring will become a general trend, and there will not be much attraction.
The good rise in the brokerage sector is that it is a few stocks with strong restructuring expectations. The strength of the plate belongs to the rotation of the plate.
Fourth, will it suddenly pull up tomorrow?
First of all, the outflow of large funds continues, and the amount of energy has been shrinking recently. After the big buying, foreign capital has been selling for several days, but the current index is still at a high level, and foreign capital is unlikely to chase higher, only after smashing down, can stimulate the interest of foreign capital.
Secondly, there is no money-making effect, there is no main line, and there is no movement of foreign capital, many retail investors have become dark under the lights, and they dare not attack rashly at all.
Finally, there are two important events tomorrow:
The first is to observe the operation of the central bank's open market tomorrow, and tomorrow a total of 127 billion funds will be withdrawn, and if the reverse repurchase operation is not carried out, it will exacerbate the shortage of funds.
Second, tomorrow's Hong Kong stocks will be closed, and the funds that originally went south will not be long A shares. Of course, if you can smash it down, the power to go long will be stronger.
For the next market, I tend to smash the market down and then pull up, if it rushes up directly, it still can't be chased, the overall rise is not happy, and the fall is not sad.