A few days ago, the Israeli-Kazakh ceasefire talks broke down, and the Israeli army has been carrying out ground operations in the eastern part of Rafah for a week, and continues to approach the densely populated central Rafah in the city. At the same time, Israel has closed aid corridors into Gaza for several days, allowing almost no supplies to enter.
Famine has spread, humanitarian operations have been paralyzed, and the United Nations estimates that some 300,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah.
What's the latest in Rafah? What is the attitude of the international community towards this round of Israeli attacks?
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On May 13, the Israeli army launched a more precise military operation against Rafah, and the world's attention continued to be focused on the border city in southern Gaza.
Omar Azul, Military and Security Expert, Doha Graduate Institute:
"Rafah is very important for this conflict, which is the only area in Gaza that borders Egypt, another country other than Israel."
As Gaza's last humanitarian corridor, the Pakistani side of the Rafah crossing has been controlled by Israeli forces. and the formation of a military corridor that extends to the Kerem Shalom crossing.
Teng Jianqun, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, doctor of military science:
"Judging from Israel's tactics, it should be the final preparation to encircle Rafah, first control some communication arteries, especially the passage to Egypt, and then strike at Hamas militants from four directions: east, west, south, and north."
In the face of Israeli artillery fire, Hamas successively launched attacks on Israeli troops in the eastern area of Rafah using large-caliber mortars and rockets, and engaged in fierce exchanges of fire with Israeli troops. On May 8, the Israeli army said an airstrike on the Gaza Strip killed Ali, a Hamas commander in charge of the naval forces in Gaza City.
Omar Azul, Military and Security Expert, Doha Graduate Institute:
"Gaza is an urban concrete jungle, it is one of the most densely populated areas, with buildings above ground and tunnels underground, which makes military operations there extremely difficult."
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In order to achieve what the Israeli army called "precise and targeted operations", the 162nd Armored Division, an important unit of the Israeli Southern Military District, equipped with heavy armored transport vehicles, armored bulldozers and tanks, went deep into Rafah as an advance force to launch artillery strikes on specific targets.
Teng Jianqun, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, doctor of military science:
"It's hard to tell which one is Hamas? Which one is the innocent people of Palestine? Pick up a gun is a militant, put down a gun is a civilian. ”
Today, Rafah, with a population of about 1.4 million, has six times the pre-war population, with most civilians fleeing from other parts of Gaza since the war began, and even more estimated, half of Rafah's 1.4 million population are children.
On 6 May, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had spread leaflets in eastern Rafah calling for civilians in the area to evacuate to the newly expanded "humanitarian zone" in southern Gaza, warning that anyone who remained in the east would put themselves and their families at risk and that displacement would be "temporary".
As of 10 May, about 110,000 people had left eastern Rafah. As the fighting continues, Israel ordered the evacuation of residents in downtown Rafah again on May 11, but some people are reluctant to relocate.
At present, due to the impact of the war, many hospitals in Rafah have come to a standstill due to a lack of supplies and fuel. Medicines were scattered all over the hospital, surgical transfer beds were piled up in a corner, and patients were nowhere to be seen.
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UN Secretary-General António Guterres:
"Even Israel's best friend is clear: an attack on Rafah would be a strategic mistake, a political catastrophe and a humanitarian nightmare."
According to US media reports, the United States suspended a batch of arms aid to Israel before the Israeli army entered Rafah for fear that Israel's offensive plan against Rafah would aggravate the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
As the Israeli army continues its military operation in Rafah, a US official said on May 8 that the US is considering further halting the supply of weapons to Israel, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a subsequent speech that Israel will fight with its fingernails until it wins, if necessary.
Teng Jianqun, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, doctor of military science:
"It is impossible for the United States to interrupt its arms and equipment assistance to Israel, and we have to take into account the impact of Jewish funders in the United States on this year's US presidential election, especially on the success or failure of Biden."
Outside the Rafah border, the latest satellite imagery shows that the Egyptian government is building a nearly 5-metre-high wall near the border with Gaza. According to some analysts, Egypt may be trying to use the wall to create a buffer zone to house Palestinians fleeing Gaza.
Since the Israeli-Kazakh war, Egypt has been actively mediating between the two to create space for negotiations. But with the latest ceasefire talks announced by Israel on 9 May that they had broken down, Rafah and the rest of Gaza remained within the scope of Israel's military operations.
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Currently, hundreds of thousands of Rafah residents have been forced to stay away from their homes and the future is uncertain. Why did Israel insist on attacking Rafah? Where will this internationally recognized humanitarian catastrophe go?
Rafah, the last refuge for 1.4 million Gaza civilians. The once crowded streets of the east are now empty and devastated. As of 12 May, Israeli tanks had occupied the main road in the eastern and western sectors of Rafah, and the eastern part of Rafah had been completely surrounded.
It was exactly a month after Netanyahu first proposed attacking Rafah, claiming that "a date has been set for attacking Rafah." During this month, there have been times when there has been hope and sometimes hope for the Israeli-Kazakh cease-fire talks, but what has remained constant is Netanya's insistence on attacking Rafah.
Why did attacking Rafah become Israel's greatest obsession in this war? According to expert analysis, there are three main reasons for Israel's attack on Rafah.
Teng Jianqun, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, doctor of military science:
"If Rafah were to be captured, then the Netanyahu government and the IDF would achieve three major goals, including eliminating Hamas, rescuing hostages, and exercising effective control over the Gaza Strip."
Earlier, Israeli officials said that although 19 of Hamas's 24 combat battalions have been destroyed, Hamas's last hope is still alive in the Rafah Belt, with one fighting battalion in the east, west, north and south: East Rafah, Tersultan in the west, Yabna in the south and Shabra in the north. Among them, the Yabna combat battalion is located in an urban area with a dense population.
And as long as these four battalions exist, Hamas can make a comeback at any time.
In addition to the four combat battalions hiding in Rafah, Israeli intelligence officials have previously believed that Hamas has set up vast tunnel bases in five areas of the Rafah belt.
Sinwar, where Hamas's top leader, who disappeared and fled for three months, is said to be hiding. However, after the invasion of Rafah, on May 11, Israeli intelligence officials again stated that Sinwar was not hiding in Rafah now, but probably hiding in Khan Younis's tunnels and would move at any time.
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In addition to the goal of destroying Hamas, Rafah's strategic location is one of the reasons why Israel has vowed to take the land.
The capture of Rafah began on 7 May, when the Rafah crossing was taken over by Israeli forces and the Israeli flag was hoisted there.
The controlled crossing is the only crossing in the Philadelphia corridor, a 14-kilometre strip of land that represents the entire border between Gaza and Egypt. Since Hamas gained control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas and Egypt have been in charge of both sides of the corridor.
At that time, the ceasefire talks had not yet broken down, and the Israeli side, which wanted to talk while fighting, was still cautious, and when explaining to the US side, it used a series of words to embellish the limitations of the offensive, explaining that the operation was only to combat Hamas's weapons smuggling capabilities, but Israel's reason was once again questioned.
Dong Manyuan, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies:
"Its weapons and ammunition depots have been destroyed by Israel one after another, and some military factories in the past are now no longer able to produce weapons, and it is basically impossible to receive weapons from outside, and they have been cut off and blocked by Israel."
Experts believe that the third consideration for Israel's insistence on attacking Rafah is to force Hamas to release all the hostages.
Just as Netanyahu was gathering forces and preparing to enter Gaza at any moment, on April 22, the Israeli people ushered in the most important holiday of the Jewish people, Passover. To celebrate the holiday, Jews from all over the world return to Israel for family reunions and a vigil until dawn.
At the same time, Kate Sehgal, an Israeli hostage, appeared in a video released by Hamas, in which he covered his face and wept.
According to official Israeli estimates, 129 Israeli hostages are still being held in Rafah, 34 of whom may have been killed. The hostage rescue weighed heavily on Netanyahu's shoulders like a mountain.
Dong Manyuan, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies:
Now, in response to pressure from the families of the hostages, Netanyahu said that the government is doing everything it can to save the hostages, but it is impossible to save all the hostages, because of the political nature of Hamas. In fact, he wanted to get rid of the constraints of his military operations caused by the popular factor or the factor of civilian casualties. ”
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In addition to the three reasons often cited by Israel, many analysts have commented that personal political pressure may be Netanyahu's unspeakable secret.
While the United States and other Western allies are urging a ceasefire and Israel and Kazakhstan are negotiating a ceasefire, the far-right allies in the Israeli government are still very tough on the Israeli-Kazakhstan issue, and their threats have also made Netanyahu unable to agree to a ceasefire.
To the left is a wave of opposition within Israel, while to the right is an international concern. According to Israeli media reports, the International Criminal Court may be about to issue an international arrest warrant for Netanyahu and others for war crimes in the Gaza Strip.
Upon learning that the International Court of Justice was about to issue an arrest warrant for himself, Netanyahu's first reaction was to turn to the United States for help. The gossip from the Israeli side spread far and wide, and Netanyahu "kept calling" US President Joe Biden, hoping that Biden would intervene to stop it.
However, the Biden administration, which is mired in anti-Israel demonstrations in universities and the looming election, has been silent about Netanyahu's appeals. As an ally of Israel, the United States has also expressed its support for the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict from its rock-solid support at the beginning to its cautious words and deeds today, from the beginning of the arrogant "providing all appropriate assistance to Israel" to the current suspension of ammunition funding for the first time.
Li Weijian, Foreign Policy Research Fellow, Shanghai Institute of International Studies:
"The Biden administration is losing patience with the Netanyahu administration's policies, but that doesn't mean that there will be a permanent and fundamental change in the relationship between the United States and Israel in the future."
Producer: Zhong Jinmei
Choreographer: Liu Chunya, Xiao Qianya, Li Wenhui
Editor: Su Weijia