Text | Observe Jun
8.9 trillion U.S. debt dues! Yellen has a headache in the United States, and China has sold US bonds for 11 consecutive months!
At a time when the scale of U.S. bonds is constantly expanding, the topic of whether U.S. bonds will collapse has begun to become the focus of heated discussions around the world. Looking back at the development history of U.S. bonds in recent years, we can indeed find that U.S. bonds do have a vague flavor of thunderstorms.
Data shows that at the end of 2019, the scale of U.S. debt at that time was only 23 trillion U.S. dollars, but by 2024, the scale of U.S. debt will skyrocket to 34.7 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 12 trillion in just four years, and an average increase of 3 trillion U.S. dollars a year. What is this concept? Let's put it this way, France's total annual GDP is only about 3 trillion US dollars.
From a micro point of view, the size of U.S. debt is actually still expanding, increasing by about $1 million a day on average, according to economists' predictions: as soon as the next month, the size of U.S. debt will exceed a new high of $35 trillion, and before 2024, the size of U.S. debt is likely to exceed a new high of $40 trillion.
Here is a brief popularization of science, if the United States is regarded as a company, then the U.S. debt is equivalent to the debt of a company, and the total GDP of the United States in 2023 is 27.36 trillion US dollars, that is to say, the current United States is actually seriously insolvent, if the U.S. economy stops growing, then the interest generated by U.S. bonds alone will be enough to drag down the United States.
In fact, now US Treasury Secretary Yellen is already having a headache, according to agency statistics, in 2024 there will be a batch of US debt due, with a total amount of up to 8.9 trillion US dollars, accounting for 32.5% of the total US GDP in 2023. According to past experience, even if the total GDP of the United States will increase in 2024, the increase should not be too large, so we can basically conclude that the United States will have to spend at least one-third of its total GDP to repay its debts this year.
But the problem is that the US federal government's fiscal revenues have fallen sharply. Taking 2023 as an example, the total revenue of the U.S. federal government this year will be $4.887 trillion, a decrease of $457 billion from the previous year, which means that even if the U.S. government uses all its revenue to repay its debts, it will barely be enough to repay half of the due U.S. debt.
Of course, what makes Yellen even more troublesome is a round of U.S. bond selling frenzy led by China. According to the data released by the People's Bank of China, the mainland has sold US bonds for 11 consecutive months, with a total amount of 545 billion, although this figure is not too much compared with the total size of US bonds, but it cannot stand China's current international status is too high.
Otherwise, once there is no one to take over the US bonds, the overall price of US bonds will collapse, and the US will not be far from a financial crisis.
In general, with the continuous growth of the scale of U.S. debt, the giant ship of the United States is gradually becoming a little unbearable, and the people in power in the United States are not ignorant of this trend, but it is indeed difficult to do anything, because it is indeed easy to become addicted to development through the issuance of national bonds.
As far as the mainland is concerned, the opportunity may be right in front of us, once the US debt completely collapses, then we, as the world's second largest economy, will have a great opportunity to replace it, and the opportunity for the internationalization of the renminbi is probably not far away. Let's wait and see!