According to the Ministry of Finance, from May 10 to 19, the third and fourth phases of certificate savings treasury bonds were officially issued during the year. The savings bonds issued this time are all fixed-interest rate and fixed-term varieties, with a maximum total issuance amount of 30 billion yuan, of which the third phase has a term of 3 years, a maximum issuance amount of 15 billion yuan, and a coupon annual interest rate of 2.38%; The term of the fourth phase is 5 years, the maximum issuance amount is 15 billion yuan, and the coupon annual interest rate is 2.5%, which is almost the same as the first two phases of this year.
Many media surveys have found that the subscription situation of the third and fourth treasury bond markets is still hot, and the first day of issuance in many places is second!
The national debt is just red
Since the beginning of this year, the purchasing power of the savings treasury bond market has shown a flourishing scene!
In fact, the interest rate on the 3-year and 5-year savings bonds issued this year has been reduced by 0.25% compared with the interest rate of the last batch of savings bonds in 2023. It stands to reason that it does not have a big advantage compared with the past, but in the context of the current reduction in bank fixed interest rates, savings bonds still have advantages over certain maturity fixed deposits and large certificates of deposit.
First of all, from the perspective of safety, there is basically no default risk behind the national credit of savings treasury bonds, which is also the most important point for investors. Compared with other financial management methods, most residents prefer fixed term products for the same reason.
Second, the interest rates on bonds issued this year are attractive compared to time deposits. According to many media reports, the current three-year and five-year RMB deposit rates are 1.95 percent and 2 percent respectively, and the coupon rate of the three-year treasury bonds issued this time is 0.03 percentage points higher than that of the whole deposit and withdrawal of the same maturity, and 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the five-year deposit.
The reason why so many people queued up to buy the third and fourth tranches of savings bonds at offline outlets was also because they could only be purchased over the counter.
In addition to the crazy robbery of government bonds, the "rushing" of local government bonds has also begun to appear in recent days. For example, on May 9, a number of banks in Guangdong Province launched sales of local bonds in Guangdong Province.
The five-year refinancing general bonds of the Guangdong provincial government, which were sold by a number of banks in Guangdong, are also the first time that local government bonds in Guangdong Province have been sold to individual investors through the counters of commercial banks this year.
According to the relevant announcement issued by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Finance, the bond is a 5-year book-entry fixed-rate interest-bearing bond, with a total planned face value of no more than 14,021.87 million yuan, of which the face value of the first bidding plan is 12,021.87 million yuan, and the face value of the commercial bank counter is planned to be issued no more than 2 billion yuan. It is reported that one minute after the sale, many banks have been sold out.
The China Times quoted a Guangdong investor as saying that the Guangdong local bonds issued this time have a five-year maturity and a coupon rate of 2.20%, which is slightly higher than the five-year fixed deposit rate of major state-owned banks. "Although the time is long and the interest rate is not high, it can be regarded as participating in the construction of the hometown and contributing to the development of the hometown."
Will local government bonds speed up?
Bond products are sought after, and they are an inevitable choice under the continuous reduction of fixed interest rates/the suspension of sales of some products, the safety of residents as the main theme, and the turbulence of capital market investment.
The issuance of treasury bonds has become the focus of attention, and presumably in the supply of the wealth management market, bond wealth management will become one of the mainstream options this year.
Previously, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "speed up the issuance and use of special bonds and maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure." ”
As for the issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds, the market has long believed that it will be launched in due course. In order to make every effort to ensure the smooth and smooth development of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, on April 22 this year, the director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be launched in a timely manner according to the allocation of ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects.
On May 13, in order to strengthen fiscal expenditure, stabilize the economy, and stabilize investment, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were officially launched. The Ministry of Finance issued the "2024 Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds", pointing out that the maturity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, and it was decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14. Among them, the total face value of the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds sold on May 17 is 40 billion yuan, and the interest will be calculated on May 20, and the interest will be paid once every six months, and the coupon rate will be determined through competitive bidding.
According to the Economic Information Daily, according to the budget report, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year has been included in the 2024 government fund budget. In terms of areas of support, the NDRC has previously clarified that it will focus on accelerating the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, promoting urban-rural integrated development, promoting regional coordinated development, improving the security and security capacity of food and energy resources, and promoting high-quality population development.
In addition, based on media observations and expert opinions, since May, especially in the second quarter, local bonds, especially special bonds, are expected to accelerate in the second quarter.
China Economic Net quoted Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, as pointing out that as of late April, various localities have disclosed that the scale of local bonds planned to be issued in the second quarter exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, of which 1.2 trillion yuan was planned to be issued for special bonds.
The decline in deposit interest rates and the suspension of manual interest replenishment also caused deposits to drop sharply in April, and the scale of wealth management increased significantly.
According to the April 2024 Financial Statistics Report released by the central bank. In the first four months, the mainland's RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan, of which the RMB deposits in April decreased by 3.92 trillion yuan compared with March. According to data, the scale of wealth management products increased by about 2 trillion yuan month-on-month in April, mainly invested in medium and long-term government bonds to win relatively stable and considerable returns.
China-Singapore Jingwei quoted a bond trader from a rural commercial bank as saying that due to the weak investment risk appetite, funds from all walks of life are still actively allocating high-security government bond assets, and as long as the 30-year treasury bond yield touches 2.5%, there are many funds rushing to buy. This means that even if the supply of government bonds increases in May ~ June, the shortage of assets in the bond market may continue.
In terms of the specific issuance time of treasury bonds, according to the Shanghai Securities News, according to the practice of previous years, savings treasury bonds are usually issued from March to November each year. Among them, in March, May, September and November, savings treasury bonds (certificate type) were issued; In April, June, July, August, and October, savings bonds (electronic) were issued.
epilogue
So far in 2023, the reduction of bank deposit rates has become an inevitable trend. While continuing to crack down on high-interest deposits, the regulator has continued to guide the downward trend of bank deposit interest rates.
Bonds, especially treasury bonds and government bonds, may be able to play a more important role this year as a stable and safe wealth management product that residents believe is high.
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