Before reading my article, you can guess a number in your heart, so that after reading my article, you can compare it with the number in your heart - there will be a different harvest!
In the article "Cialis 2024 Q1 Performance Estimate", I estimated that the gross profit margin of Cialis in the first quarter was about 20.38%, and I was sprayed for a long time at that time, or said, "Can the foundry have such a high gross profit margin?" Or, "The gross profit margin from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2023 is less than 10%, how can it reach 20% in the first quarter of 2024?" ”
After the official disclosure of the first quarter report of 2024, many people were dumbfounded, and the gross profit margin of Cialis in the first quarter was actually 21.52%. Obviously, my estimate is also underestimated by about 1%. This time, I will continue to use the same ideas as last time to re-estimate the gross profit margin for the second quarter of 2024, hoping that this estimate will be closer to the actual value.
1. The formula for calculating the gross profit margin of M9
The formula for calculating the gross profit margin of M9 can be simplified as "gross profit margin≈1 - (material cost of a bicycle + labor cost of a bicycle + equipment cost of a bicycle) / operating income after tax deduction of a bicycle".
Taking a 550,000 yuan/vehicle Wenjie M9 as an example, the operating income of a bicycle after tax deduction is about 486,000 yuan, and the material cost of a bicycle accounts for about 50%, that is, 243,000 yuan; after the super factory is officially put into operation, the labor cost of a bicycle is not high, about 15,000 yuan; the cost of bicycle equipment, calculated based on the total equipment cost of 1 billion yuan per quarter, the cost of bicycle equipment = 1 billion yuan/quarterly sales volume of Wenjie M9.
In this way, it can be deduced that the formula for the gross profit margin of M9 is: the quarterly gross profit margin of M9 ≈ 46.9%-10/the quarterly revenue of M9.
In the second quarter of 2024, the quarterly operating revenue of the M9 model was approximately RMB26.8 billion, with a gross profit margin of approximately 43.2%.
2. Formula for calculating gross profit margin of other models
As I introduced in the article "Interpretation of Cialis 2023 Annual Report", before the release of the M9, the quarterly gross profit margin of Cialis met the following formula: quarterly gross profit margin = 22.3%-9.36/quarterly operating income.
Substituting the operating income of 15.34 billion yuan after excluding M9 in the second quarter of 2024 into the above formula, it can be calculated that the quarterly gross profit margin of other models other than M9 is 16.2%.
3. Combined calculation
Now that the gross profit margin of the M9 and other models has been calculated, it is relatively simple to calculate the overall gross profit margin of Cialis in the second quarter of 2024.
(1) Gross profit in the second quarter: 268×43.2% + 153.4×16.2% = 14.063 billion yuan.
(2) Gross profit margin in the second quarter: 140.63÷421.42=33.4%.
It's a bit of an exaggeration In order to confirm whether the calculation was wrong, I recalculated it again, and it seemed that there was no problem with the calculation. Originally, I was going to add the 1% that was underestimated in the first quarter, but I don't dare to add it now!
In the survey last weekend, the person in charge of Cialis said that the company will adhere to the road of software-defined vehicles, focus on making money, and not do loss-making business - it seems that what he said is true! The gross profit margin of more than 30% is estimated to be enough to be proud of China's automobile industry!
Yu Chengdong once said that many people will experience the process of looking down, not understanding, and not being able to catch up with Cialis.
(Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice, and the views in this article only represent personal views and do not have any guiding effect.) ）