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The year 2050 will undoubtedly become a crucial turning point in the historical process of the Chinese nation, full of profound changes and challenges. As the world's most populous country, China is facing a dramatic demographic shift with far-reaching and wide-ranging implications.
"Alas, that's worrying!" Uncle Zhang sat in a rocking chair in the living room, staring at the latest population data scrolling on the TV screen, and couldn't help but let out a deep sigh. As a retired worker, he is well aware of the heavy burden that an ageing population places on the country and his family.
"Lao Zhang, don't worry too much." Mrs. Zhang came out of the kitchen in a calm and firm tone, "Although the situation is severe, as long as we take effective measures quickly, we will definitely be able to overcome many difficulties and meet the challenges." ”
Hearing his wife's words, Uncle Zhang's frowning brows gradually relaxed, and a glint of hope appeared on his face again. He bowed slightly, clearly encouraged by his wife's optimism.
Let's all focus on what kind of demographic change is taking place quietly. According to the latest United Nations projections, the total population of the mainland is expected to decline significantly by 2050.
In a relatively optimistic scenario, the total population would fall from the current 1.4 billion to 1.43 billion, however, in a pessimistic scenario, this figure could even fall below a staggering 1.28 billion.
Regardless of the eventual direction, the decline in population is irreversible. The core driver of this seismic change is the growing aging population on the mainland.
In the face of such a major demographic change, we must not sit idly by, but must act now and respond positively. This is because China's population issue not only involves the vital interests of every citizen, but also has a direct bearing on the national destiny and future development direction of the motherland.
So, which authority has made such accurate predictions of China's demographic changes? It turned out that this much-talked-about forecast was released by the prestigious international organization of the United Nations.
"The influence of the United Nations cannot be underestimated, and their predictions must be based on rigorous data analysis." After reading the report, Uncle Zhang was shocked beyond words, and at the same time fully recognized the reliability of the prediction results.
Every two years, the United Nations publishes an in-depth report entitled "World Population Prospects", which uses sophisticated mathematical modeling and cutting-edge statistical techniques to make in-depth analysis and predictions of the population situation of countries around the world.
It is particularly noteworthy that when making forecasts, the United Nations mainly relies on historical data from the past, sets assumptions, and then uses rigorous mathematical models and advanced statistical tools to dig deep into complex factors such as future population size, structure, and distribution, so as to draw scientific and reasonable inferences.
As we have previously discussed, under relatively optimistic scenarios, the Chinese population is expected to peak at 1.46 billion by 2030 and then decline gradually to 1.43 billion by 2050. However, in the worst-case scenario, the mainland's population will peak at 1.42 billion in 2024 and then decline rapidly, eventually leaving only 1.28 billion.
The core driving force driving such a huge change in the structure of Chinese's population is undoubtedly the increasingly serious problem of population aging. Population ageing, that is, the rising proportion of the elderly population in the total population, is not only an inevitable trend of economic and social development, but also brings unprecedented challenges to the country and families.
"When I see these amazing figures, I can't help but feel a deep sense of worry in my heart!" Uncle Zhang's face was full of anxiety, he looked around, looking at the furniture and furnishings that had accompanied him through the long years, and his eyes gradually dimmed, as if he foresaw that this once warm little home was about to be shrouded in the shadow of an aging population.
Seeing this, Mrs. Zhang immediately stepped forward to reassure her husband: "Please rest assured that the government is actively seeking a solution. As long as we unite and work together, we will be able to overcome difficulties and meet challenges. ”
As one of the world's most ageing countries, China's current situation and future development trends are indeed worrying. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of 2020, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in mainland China has reached 254 million, accounting for 18.1% of the country's total population; Among them, there are as many as 190 million elderly people aged 65 and above, accounting for 13.5% of the total population of the country.
It can be seen that the mainland has entered a moderately aging society.
However, the harsher truth is that this process is intensifying at an alarming rate! The United Nations' bold forecast shows that in just a dozen years, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above on the mainland will grow sharply to 340 million, accounting for 23.8% of the country's total population; The elderly group over 65 years old will exceed 260 million, accounting for 17.9%.
By 2050, the situation will become even more dire: the number of people over 60 years old will reach a staggering 490 million, accounting for more than a third of the country's total population, and the number of people over 65 years old will reach 370 million, accounting for more than a quarter, when China will inevitably enter the door to a super-aging society.
"That's a staggering number!" Uncle Zhang straightened up as if he had woken up from a nightmare, his hands wringing incessantly, and fine beads of sweat oozed from his forehead. As an elder who has experienced vicissitudes of life, he is well aware of what kind of heavy blow it will bring to the country and people's lives once he enters a super-aging society.
However, China's population aging is not only reflected in its huge size, but also has many other characteristics worthy of attention, such as obvious regional differences, serious structural imbalances, and low overall quality of the elderly population. The interweaving of these problems will undoubtedly multiply the pressure brought by the aging population to the country and society.
In the face of such severe challenges, we have no way back, and only by bravely facing difficulties and actively seeking solutions can we find the way forward. So, how should we deal with the growing problem of an aging population? There is no doubt that this will require a comprehensive and integrated approach by the Government and the population as a whole to effectively mitigate the impact of this crisis.
"Indeed, the government and each and every one of us must be well prepared." Uncle Zhang nodded firmly, his face once again shining with determination, "When we were young, we also worked hard for the country's population policy, and now, we should put the interests of our families and future generations first.
First, increasing fertility is undoubtedly a fundamental strategy to cope with population aging. If the fertility rate, as a key factor in determining the size and structure of the population, can be restored to a reasonable level, it will certainly inject new vitality into the mainland's labor market.
"What you say is very true!" Uncle Zhang took over the conversation emotionally, and his words were full of urgent expectation, "If we can increase the fertility rate as soon as possible, we will definitely be able to alleviate many worries when we enter our old age." At that time, we only had one son, which was a deliberate choice made in response to the call of the country. ”
Mrs. Zhang bowed slightly, her eyes were slightly gloomy, and she seemed to have all kinds of emotion in her heart. She looked around and saw many parents playing happily in the park with their children, and they couldn't help but smile with satisfaction and satisfaction on their faces.
Second, increasing the labor force participation rate is also a powerful weapon to cope with the aging population. The labor force participation rate is directly related to a country's economic growth potential, and if this indicator can be improved, it will undoubtedly greatly enhance the contribution of the existing population to economic and social development.
"That's true!" Uncle Zhang nodded approvingly, "My child is about to retire this year, but fortunately, he has always maintained a positive work attitude and is in good health. If the government can appropriately extend the retirement age, it will undoubtedly help alleviate the impact of the ageing population on society. ”
The third major response strategy is to improve the overall quality of the population. There is no doubt that the quality of the population is the core element that determines the quality and structure of the population, and it is also the long-term solution for us to meet the challenges of population ageing.
"Honestly!" Uncle Zhang said forcefully, "Today's education and medical environment has improved significantly compared to when we were young. As long as the government continues to increase investment in these fields and further improve the education level and health level of the general public, the overall quality of the future generation will surely leap by a large margin, thus injecting new vitality into economic and social development and leading the motherland to a more prosperous and prosperous demographic dividend.
The last important task is to make every effort to improve the level of elderly care services, in order to bring more benefits to the elderly group. Pension services are undoubtedly the key factor affecting the quality of life of the elderly population, and it is also an inevitable choice for us to cope with the challenges of population aging.
"Well, that's not all!" Uncle Zhang sighed, his eyes were full of helplessness, "My husband and wife are not in good health and often need to go to the hospital for treatment.
Without the help of health insurance and the selfless support of our children, we would not have been able to bear such a huge and sustained pressure on medical expenditures.
In line with Mrs. Zhang's point of view, Uncle Zhang bowed his head frequently with anticipation, and he sincerely sighed: "Yes, I sincerely hope and pray that our great motherland can further deepen and improve the medical security system, and continuously improve the pension benefits of retirees, so as to provide us seniors with more high-quality, thoughtful and considerate services, so that we can enjoy our old age with peace of mind and spend every day healthy and happy."
"Rest assured, given the unremitting efforts of the government and society as a whole, I am confident that we will be able to successfully meet the serious challenge of an ageing population!" Uncle Zhang's tone was firm and powerful, as if he was full of endless confidence and expectation for the future.