It's time to discuss the signals at the top of the discussion.
At the end of January, when the market was desperate, they were shouting that Big A collapsed, fell below 2600, saw 2400, or even 2000 points.
At that time we were studying some signals before the market bottomed.
These include market sentiment, panic mentality, valuation bottoms, and most realistically, chips changing hands.
We watch the national team buy and buy, but the market is still going up and down, valuations are getting lower and lower, reason is overwhelmed by emotion, and bad decisions are made.
Not only at the bottom watching the opportunity slip away, but also cutting meat at the bottom and handing over cheap chips.
It's one thing to have no money to make up for the position, and it's another thing to cut the meat and leave the market.
When the market bottoms out, it is actually a group of people who cut it out at the bottom.
The bottom that the money really wants to hit must be handed over with a large number of cheap chips.
Therefore, panic, despair, and emotional killing are all indispensable.
If the bottom of the market is for cheap chips, then the top of the market is to give out as many high-priced chips as possible to those who are greedy.
The principle is actually the same, there is no difference at all.
Every time at the top, what happens, in fact, is the same.
First, market sentiment is high and trading volume is climbing.
Most of the tops are large, and there is almost no shrinkage.
The amount here is not necessarily a particularly large amount, or a heavenly amount.
The volume of many heads is not particularly large, but it will definitely be larger than the volume on weekdays.
Because there must be traces to follow when the funds run, and the volume is the most standard one.
Many times, the funds will be played at a high level, pulled up and down, and then released a huge amount.
This is the most obvious signal that funds are diverging at high levels, and it is also a standard signal that it has peaked.
It is impossible to judge whether the top is close to the volume of the yang line, but if it is the volume of the yin line, you should be particularly vigilant.
Because the volume of the negative line means that the bulls are scattered, there is no resistance, the air force is raging and there is a large number of flights.
Increasing volume is a high level of emotion, but it is also a precursor to danger, especially in the second half of the rally.
Second, it has risen continuously, and there have been many somersaults.
Before the market peaks, there is often a period of continuous rise, which is unavoidable.
Before the top comes, there must be a real rally.
Otherwise, a lot of funds will not be seen without a rabbit and not a hawk.
Therefore, the market will definitely have an intensive short period.
If one yang line is not enough, then two, and if it is not enough, three wires.
The market continues to create short-term new highs, creating a breakthrough trend, and funds will definitely not be able to resist entering the market.
After all, the market environment is so good, even if it is a short-term profit, it is also profitable.
Some of the original bears will enter the market in a long way, looking for opportunities in the market.
Once the somersault appears, it means that there will be funds to fuel the fire, which will accelerate the rise of the market.
It is equivalent to the entry of the original air force, which has become incremental funds to drive further breakthroughs in the market.
Third, there is a lot of good news, and all kinds of bull market is being touted.
There is also a clear signal from the top that a bull market is coming.
When the word bull market appears at high frequency, it should be adjusted.
The so-called good news is usually not a real good, but some verbal good.
For example, the stock market in the periphery has risen sharply, for example, northbound funds are buying wildly, for example, some economic data is good.
The real positive is the favorable industry policy, the reform of the system, and the large amount of funds being guided into the market.
There is no money, only the good of the slogan, which is basically creating an atmosphere of pick-up.
Nowadays, in the era of self-media, a large number of people advocate the theory of bull market in order to attract attention and traffic.
Retail investors only believe it when they see it, so when it rises, they believe it immediately.
The more this rhetoric, the more receivers there will be, and the closer the market will be to peaking.
Moreover, those who advocate the bull market often let everyone continue to replenish their positions after the top appears, and they are actively optimistic, which leads to a hedge on the top of the mountain.
Fourth, hot spots are scrolling rapidly, and there is "gold" everywhere.
The market wants to trap people, and there is another trick called fast rotation.
When you find that different sectors are rising in turn every day, and you don't know which one to chase, the risk is particularly great.
The reason why the top can be shipped smoothly is that it is one stock after another, trapping batch after batch of funds.
If you chase high, you will be slaughtered, and when you chase and slaughter again, it is when the top appears.
It seems that gold is everywhere, but the sustainability of the rally is starting to be reduced.
The faster the rotation, the closer it is to the peak, because there is no main line anymore and the market "gives up".
The main line is a group market, which will not quickly differentiate and collapse, while the rotation is a kind of market that sets people.
When some unknown hot spots and sectors start to move, be especially wary that the end of the market may be near.
Fifth, retail positions have skyrocketed, and funds have run out of bullets.
Every time there is a high point, it is like this, retail investors hold a large number of positions, and the fund positions are full.
To put it mildly, there is no pick-up man anymore, so the top is built.
Like the fund's position curse, when it reaches more than 90%, you should pay special attention to it, and if it exceeds 95%, it is almost an iron top.
Not all the main funds can be shipped to retail investors, after all, the power of retail investors is very limited.
For some large-capitalization companies, the final top is the market that is taken by public funds.
Don't blame public funds for taking over, they buy stocks, only look at the sector and the status of individual stocks, and don't care much about the price of individual stocks.
That is, if you identify a so-called good company, you will buy it, no matter whether it is cheap or expensive, you will buy it, which naturally increases the attribute of taking over.
Needless to say, retail investors can change their views with one yang.
What's more, the peaks are all on a continuous yang line, and emotions and mentality can't be stopped at all.
When the market is very hot, retail investors often fill their positions and wait for the surge, but they don't know that the risk has come.
When the people around you are happy to hold the stock to rise, it is the time to build the top.
The funds are not willing to fight a protracted war, and no one will have to smash the plate and run away.
Now you should understand why March and April will fluctuate around 3050 for a long time, because there is no shipment, and the market sentiment is not enough.
It should also be understood why near 3200, there will be a phased top, because the mood is in place, the position is full, and no one will take over if you don't go.
The market is not simply the opposite of retail investors.
But the market itself is a game, a game of chips, a game of human nature, everything is inevitable.
Capital is a harvester, but in different ways.
It's exactly the same not only in the stock market, but in any market with investment attributes.
Therefore, there is no need to be annoyed by losing money in the stock market, the end must be that most people lose money, and there may not be another result in changing places.
This world is cruel, only by gaining knowledge, increasing cognition, and accumulating experience can you improve the winning rate of investment.