On the one hand, the Russian army wants to consolidate the existing achievements, control the four oblasts in eastern Ukraine, and establish a buffer zone, that is, the concept of a demilitarized zone, to make post-war arrangements, which also explains why the Russian army wants to attack Kharkiv.
Producer: Chuantuo Think Tank (No. 5149 Exclusive Premiere)
The change of the Russian defense minister, although I think this incident is relatively sudden, is also in line with the development of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in the past two years. This personnel change is based on the reshuffle of the cabinet in Putin's new term. I think the main reason for Shoigu's replacement this time has a lot to do with the current state of the conflict.
Interpretation of the picture: Shoigu
I will talk about two points of view: first, the current Ukrainian-Russian conflict is at a critical turning point, the two sides have been deadlocked for a year and a half, and in September 2022, they began to enter a tug-of-war, and today, the situation is almost the same, this picture is the current situation map released by the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian army controls most of the four oblasts in eastern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian ground forces have no ability to turn the tables.
Picture interpretation: The current situation of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict
But now it is different, the United States, NATO, and Europe have unscrupulously increased the intensity of aid, this time the aid is mainly long-range precision strike weapons, fighter jets and other high-value assets, such as rocket artillery with a range of 300 kilometers, and Europe provides cruise missiles, F16, etc. These equipment have the ability to strike at strategic targets and high-value targets of the Russian army, and at the same time, it also increases the possibility of direct NATO involvement to a certain extent. For example, F16, can the Russian army ensure that Ukrainian pilots are flying above? Apparently not.
Picture interpretation: F16 fighter jets acquired by Ukraine
The F16 is compatible with the NATO air combat system and has the ability to launch A and B missiles, which means that Ukrainian pilots only need to be responsible for launching, and the guidance behind is completed by NATO's early warning platform. Also, the F35 of the US military has already participated in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, mainly used to identify and locate the location of the Russian air defense system. The emergence of these details shows that the depth of NATO's involvement is increasing. So, at this turning point, the Russian army needs to adjust.
Picture interpretation: The F16 fighter is about to be used by the Ukrainian Air Force
Second, the Russian army needs to economically control the spending of the conflict. Putin's newly appointed defense minister, Belousov, is good at the economy, so the first explanation for this move is that Putin wants to use a limited defense budget and more innovative means to deal with the next conflict. Let's take a look at a graph, which is an estimate of the 18 months of the conflict, and the direct expenses and loss costs of the Russian army are more than $167 billion, excluding other indirect ones. Direct expenses include military operations, salaries for those fighting on the front lines, i.e. salaries, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers.
Photo interpretation: Putin's newly appointed defense minister, Belousov
So Putin is now letting Belousov, who is good at grasping the economy, be the defense minister, and I think the Russian army is ready to make a long-term plan. On the one hand, the Russian army wants to consolidate the existing achievements, control the four oblasts in eastern Ukraine, and establish a buffer zone, that is, the concept of a demilitarized zone, to make post-war arrangements. This also explains why the Russian army is attacking Kharkiv, because it is too close to Belgorod, and the Russian army wants to move forward and establish a non-military buffer zone, which can also add some bargaining chips to later negotiations.
On the other hand, I think that Putin is trying to optimize the chain of command, Belousov is in charge of settling economic accounts, and Putin can reflect his ideas more quickly and accurately in the military operations of the Russian army on the front line. #文章首发挑战赛#