Some time ago, Putin was sworn in, opening a new term as Russian president, and at the same time, the formation of a new Russian government was also on the agenda. A few days ago, Putin submitted to the Russian Federation Council a list of nominations for heads of various government departments, and only after the Russian Federation Council deliberates and approves it, the new Russian government will take office after Putin signs the presidential decree.
The most surprising thing is that the Russian defense minister is about to be replaced, and Putin has signed a presidential decree to remove Shoigu from the post of defense minister and appoint him as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. As for the new defense minister, Putin intends to put the first deputy prime minister of Russia Andrei Belousov in the post.
According to official Russian sources, most of the heads of important government departments should remain the same, such as the post of foreign minister, which has also attracted much attention, and Lavrov's nominee. At this time, the change of Russia's defense minister became unusual.
In particular, some time ago, Russia had just caught a "big fish", and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov took advantage of his position to engage in corruption and bribery, and the amount involved was as high as 1 billion rubles. Among them, the most concerned is the relationship between Ivanov and Shoigu, Ivanov is not only Shoigu's assistant, but also a close confidant, so after his arrest, the outside world speculated that this was against Shoigu.
[Putin submits the list of nominees for ministers of the Russian government]
Now that Shoigu is no longer in the post of Russian defense minister, it seems to give more credibility to previous speculations. However, today we will not talk about the "grievances" within Russia, but only discuss the matter of the replacement of the Russian defense minister.
Putin's nominee, Belousov, has a peculiarity in that he is better at economics than military. To be precise, Belousov himself did not have any military-related experience.
For example, he served as Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia from 2006 to 2008, and then served as Director of the Department of Finance and Economy of the Russian Government for four years, and then Minister of Economic Development of Russia for one year. Now, it is incomprehensible that Putin has put a man with no military experience in such an important position as defense minister.
In response, the Russian side also responded, and the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that it is very important to introduce the economy of the military sector into the national economy. That is, Putin intends to link the military economy to the national economy.
The current situation facing Russia is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be ended for a long time, but the United States and the West, led by NATO, are pressing step by step, whether it is economic sanctions or military deterrence, the United States and the West are ready to swallow Russia's regional and international influence at any time.
[Shoigu was dismissed from the post of Russian defense minister]
In this case, Russia must be ready for a "protracted war". A strong military system needs huge economic support as a backing, and linking the military to the country's economy is clearly able to make the Russian military more dynamic and secure. Belousov, who has rich experience in economic management, will play a key role in this process, finding an economic and military balance for Russia.
In addition, Putin chose Belousov as defense minister for another purpose, that is, to ensure that every military expenditure is spent on the cutting edge, and Belousov is like a prison guard, specifically responsible for keeping an eye on the use and whereabouts of these military funds.
News of serious corruption within the Russian army has been exposed more than once, and the Russian side has also arrested many high-ranking Russian military officials. For example, in September last year, Russia arrested a major general of the Russian army on suspicion of taking bribes. Another example is Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov, who was arrested some time ago. "Wagner" has also complained many times before that the Russian military's top brass has withheld a lot of weapons and logistics supplies. As corruption cases and rumors increase, the Russian public's trust in the Russian army and government will decline, and the enthusiasm of the Russian front-line soldiers will also be reduced.
What's more, Russia is significantly increasing its defense budget, which has increased to about $120 billion in fiscal 2024 and is expected to increase defense spending by 70% in 2024 compared to the previous year. As a result, by 2024, Russia's defense spending will account for about 30% of total federal spending and 6% of GDP, which is the first time in Russia's modern history and is close to catching up with the Soviet Union in the mid-80s, when the Soviet Union was at its military peak.
[Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov nominated as Russian Defense Minister]
Therefore, it is very necessary to ensure that the huge amount of $120 billion can be used rationally. Belousov, as a professional with rich experience in economic management, will be able to better plan the use of this fund.
It should also be emphasized that, despite Belousov's lack of military experience, there have been no significant changes in the high command of the Russian army. Gerasimov will continue to hold the post of chief of the general staff of the armed forces, and it is likely that the army's strategy and day-to-day operations will continue to follow the established guidelines and guiding principles.
At the same time, Shoigu has not completely withdrawn from the political center, and his new post of secretary of the Security Council also has a greater say in Russia's security decision-making, and can even influence some of Putin's decisions in this regard.
This shows that when Putin makes personnel adjustments, he is actually redeploying military, political, and economic resources, with the aim of bringing Russia's different departments closer together to ensure that it can compete with the United States and other Western countries in a lasting way.
The most important point is that this is Putin's counterbalance. Looking at the whole world, especially the United States and Western powers, it has become a general trend for civilian officials to become defense ministers, and the General Staff is responsible for the specific operational details. In this way, it is also convenient to form checks and balances, avoid the situation of the military being dominant, and ultimately achieve the goal of reducing the factors of national instability.
In short, Belousov, a "military novice" with zero experience, as Russia's defense minister, may have a certain impact on Russia's national defense, but it is also within a controllable range, but his participation is likely to inject new perspectives and ideas into Russia's military and defense system, while ensuring Russia's national defense security, adding more diversified elements to Russia's long-term strategic layout.