Russian state media released news yesterday that Putin signed a presidential decree appointing former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. That night, Putin nominated Andrei Belousov for the post of Russian Defense Minister.
Although Putin did not remove Shoigu from his post as defense minister this time, according to the current situation, it seems that Russia's replacement of defense minister is a certainty.
Putin's move has had a great impact on Ukraine.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted for 2 years and 3 months so far, and the war did not end quickly with a big victory for Russia as expected by the public, although there is a huge gap in the military strength of the two sides, but Ukraine has the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and other countries as the backing, they have sent a large number of high-end weapons to Ukraine, especially the United States, which has provided more than 100 billion US dollars in aid to Ukraine in the past two years.
And just late last month, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced that he would provide $6 billion in military aid to Ukraine. It is because of this assistance that Ukraine has been able to drag the war to this day.
However, Russia on the other side has not sat still, especially in terms of economy, which has not followed the wishes of these Western countries to "economic collapse".
Although the Russian-Ukrainian war has also had a huge impact on Russia and has been greatly affected economically, the Russian economy has maintained stable growth in the past two years, and its GDP growth rate has far exceeded that of most developed countries, and there is even a phenomenon of "getting stronger and stronger".
However, this does not mean that Russia can take it lightly, and Putin's decision to replace the Russian defense minister this time is a strong signal.
The outside world has long expected this, and the main reason is because of the Wagner "rebellion" incident in the middle of last year and the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes this year.
In the Russian-Ukrainian war, due to the tension of the war and the relatively large casualties, both countries have taken all conscription measures, and on the Russian side alone, there are more than 30 mercenary organizations participating in the war, among them, the Wagner Group has always been Putin's "henchman".
But such an organization suddenly "mutinied", and Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, pointed the finger at the Russian Ministry of Defense and named Shoigu.
Prigozhin posted a video directly on social media, in which he bluntly said that Shoigu's soldiers could not express their thoughts, and Putin was also "deceived" by the Ministry of Defense.
However, the main reason for Prigozhin's anger this time is because he believes that the army of the Russian Ministry of Defense has attacked the camp of Wagner mercenaries, so he decided to "avenge" his brothers.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also reacted quickly to Prigozhin's statement, saying that the army had not attacked Wagner's camp and that Prigozhin was deliberately provoking.
In the end, the "rebellion" ended with the withdrawal and dissolution of Wagner under the mediation of Belarus.
In 2023, Prigozhin's private jet crashed in an accident and Prigozhin died instantly.
With the dissolution of Wagner and the death of Prigozhin, it seems that the crisis has been resolved, but this matter is very sensitive for Russia today, and whether Prigozhin is true or not, it is difficult for Shoigu to continue in the position of defense minister.
On June 23, 2024, the Russian Investigative Committee said that Ivanov was taken into custody by the Security Service for investigation because of huge bribes.
Ivanov is Russia's deputy defense minister, mainly responsible for the management of military assets and some support and procurement work, and is the right-hand man of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
In such a critical period as the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ivanov is still working on military spending, which Putin and Russia can't bear anyway, so this time the Security Service detained him by thunderous means.
Ivanov was discovered mainly because of his habit of high consumption, and luxury consumption was completely disproportionate to his normal income. But the outside world thinks that Ivanov's arrest is more that Putin is "warning" Shoigu.
After Ivanov's arrest, the outside world believes that Putin will "change blood" in the Russian Ministry of Defense in the new term, especially those related to former Defense Minister Shoigu will leave the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Putin's appointment of Shoigu as secretary of the Security Council this time is the first step of his action, although from the perspective of his position, Shoigu seems to be "not falling but rising", but for Shoigu, the power in his hands has become a lot smaller. However, Shoigu still has a lot of say in this position and can influence some decisions in Russia.
After all, Shoigu has always been Putin's most trusted person, he has been by his side all these years, and even fishing Putin will take him with him. Therefore, Putin's appointment this time is mainly to dispel doubts from the outside world, and it is also to give Shoigu dignity.
And this time Putin's nomination of Andrei Belousov is not a good stubble, he is the first deputy prime minister of Russia, more powerful than Shoigu in terms of position, but he belongs to the "non-military person".
Such a decision was made immediately after the new term, in fact, Putin also wanted to warn Ukraine.
On the one hand, after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia's military consumption has increased suddenly, and it is not a way to go on like this, so Russia needs a person with an "innovative spirit" to change the status quo, which is why the Russian Ministry of Defense needs a major blood exchange, and it is possible that this blood exchange will continue in the future.
And Andrei Belousov was previously the first deputy prime minister, proud of his achievements, from the two years of Russia's GDP growth rate has not decreased but increased can be seen, this person is very unusual, he is not a military person, but it may have miraculous results.
On the other hand, for Ukraine, if Andrei Belousov becomes the Minister of Defense of Russia, according to his consistent development concept, then his decision is likely to be unthinkable, so Ukraine responded that this is bad news, and the future can only be slowly adapted.
Resources
Global Network2024-05-13"Putin appoints Shoigu as secretary of the Russian Security Council and nominates Belousov as defense minister"
Global2024-04-27Latest! The U.S. Secretary of Defense announced $6 billion in military aid to Ukraine, the largest single aid to date.
Global Times2023-06-25"Thrilling 24 Hours! The beginning and end of the Wagner "rebellion" in Russia