Forest and grassland fire risk trend analysis report
(May 13–19, 2024)
First, the overall trend
This week, there will be more rain in most parts of the south, and there will be more sunny and hot weather in Huanghuai and southern North China. The areas with high forest and grassland fire danger levels in China are mainly concentrated in the eastern and northeastern parts of North China, the northwestern part of Northeast China, the northeastern part of East China, and the eastern part of Southwest China.
It is estimated that the fire danger level of forest and grassland in northern and western Beijing, northeastern Hebei, eastern and northeastern Inner Mongolia, northwest Heilongjiang, central Shandong, and central and western Yunnan is relatively high (level 3). National parks, forests, grasslands, and grasslands have a low fire danger level.
Recently, due to the continuous rainfall in the southern part of the mainland, the forest and grassland fire danger meteorological level has decreased, and the rainfall in Huanghuai and southern North China is less than that in the same period of the year, and the meteorological drought will continue or develop, and the forest and grassland fire danger level in some areas is high. According to historical statistics, since May, the lightning in Daxinganling has gradually increased, and the probability of lightning fires has increased, so it is necessary to pay attention to prevention. Local forest and grass fire prevention departments should pay close attention to personnel activities and weather changes, especially the superposition of extreme weather such as continuous high temperature, drought, strong wind, thunder and lightning in the wild, which is very easy to cause fires or even re-ignitions. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the inspection and prevention of border fires, especially the grassland fires on the Sino-Mongolian border, and the burning of agricultural fires on the Sino-Vietnamese, China-Myanmar, and China-Laos borders.
National forest and grassland fire risk prediction map from May 13 to May 19
Second, the fire situation in the same period of history
This week, the number of satellite monitoring hotspots in the same period in the past 10 years decreased by 19% compared with last week, and there were more satellite monitoring hotspots in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Guangdong and other provinces. Among all satellite monitoring hotspots, forest (grass) fires accounted for 15%, agricultural fires accounted for 42%, and planned fires accounted for 14%. In the past five years, the number of historical fires has decreased by 35% compared with last week, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan and Jilin are the provinces with more fires, with agricultural fires accounting for 27%, lightning fires accounting for 17%, and sacrificial fires accounting for 5%.
3. Weather conditions across the country
This week, it is expected that the temperature in most parts of the country will be 1~2 °C higher than that of the same period in normal years, and there will be 3-5 days of dry and hot wind weather in most of Huanghuai and southern North China, and after the 17th, there will be high temperature weather above 35 °C in some areas of Huanghuai and North China; The cumulative precipitation in the southwest of the Yangtze River, the central and southeastern parts of South China and the southwest region of the mainland is 50~100 mm, of which 120~200 mm is in some areas of the central and western parts of South China and the south of Guizhou, and can reach about 250 mm locally. The cumulative precipitation in most of the above areas is more than 3~7 percent, and the local precipitation is about 1 times more.
In the coming week, the average temperature in most parts of the country is expected to be 1~2°C higher than that of the same period in normal years or close to normal; The cumulative rainfall in Jiangnan, South China, Guizhou, and central and eastern Yunnan is 25~40 mm, and 50~80 mm locally.
The above trend analysis is for internal use of the Forestry and Grassland Fire Prevention Department only
Fire Prevention Center, Department of Fire Prevention, National Forestry and Grassland Administration
Executive Editor-in-Chief|Liu Siwen Email|[email protected]