[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.5.13
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a weak rebound trend, the two cities fell more and rose less, more than 3,900 stocks were green, and the half-day turnover was 569.4 billion, and the northbound funds were no longer disclosed in real time, and the market had a dream on a veil.
The recent market dynamics are somewhat bearish, and for us ordinary shareholders, there are indeed a little twists and turns. In particular, seeing that the total amount of social financing in April did not meet the expectations of the big guys, and the review of new share issuance began to move again, the northbound funds were no longer disclosed in real time, and the uneasiness caused by the turmoil of some private equity funds, all of which made the pace of new funds entering the market a little hesitant. In this way, the stock market may have to experience a period of turbulence in the short term, and fluctuations up and down are inevitable, but in my opinion, the magnitude of this wave of adjustment should not be too deep, after all, the foundation of the market is still sound.
However, then again, the latest data from the central government also revealed some positive signs, by the end of April, the growth rate of RMB loan balances remained stable, and the number of new loans in the first four months was also quite large, indicating that the capital side is still dynamic. While the growth rate of the broad and narrow money supply has slowed down a bit, this may be a temporary correction. Looking ahead, several factors may help the money supply find its balance: corporate demand for technological innovation, green economy, and support for small and micro enterprises will drive financing activity; On the government's side, accelerating the issuance of treasury bonds and special bonds will also inject more liquidity into the market; As for the bond market, it will slowly return to the track dominated by fundamentals.
Therefore, in the long run, the prospect of A-shares is still worth looking forward to, and now it is nothing more than two situations, either the stock market will recover directly, or it will adjust first and then go up. The key is that we have to be confident that the ups and downs of the market are normal, and every adjustment is a gestation period of opportunities.
For us ordinary investors, the most important thing now is to stay calm and not be distracted by short-term fluctuations. Consideration can be given to areas supported by national policies, such as scientific and technological innovation, green environmental protection, and those industries that can directly benefit from economic recovery. At the same time, pay attention to the market trends, especially the changes in policy guidance and important economic indicators, and flexibly adjust your investment strategy. Remember, wait patiently, don't chase high, don't panic and cut meat, and grasp your own rhythm, so that we can sail steadily in the wind and waves of the stock market.
From the perspective of plates, power grid equipment, CRO and household appliances led the rise today; The liquor, publishing, and battery sectors led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, the main net inflow of the Belt and Road, smart home and smart wearables; Huawei, lithium batteries, and financial major net outflows.
From the index point of view, the high-speed rail industry, leading home appliances, and China's Internet were among the top gainers in the 50th; CSI liquor, CSI liquor, and new energy vehicles are the lagging ones in terms of daily gains.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, and 20-week moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is expanding, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axis; The golden cross of the KDJ indicator spreads upward, and the J value peaks; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the upper band.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 60-week moving average, exchanging time for space, and finally breaking through the pressure near 3130 points, and the technical upside space is open, but there are 120-week and 250-week moving averages above the suppression, which will be the resistance to the future rebound.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is shortened, and the indicator line is running above the 0 axis; The golden cross of the KDJ indicator converges upward, and the J value turns to the top; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the upper band.
Analysis: In the short term, if there is a pullback, focus on the support of the 5-day moving average, as long as the 5-day moving average supports the index and the trend does not go down, then there is no need to worry too much.
【Fundamentals & News】
According to foreign media, the Biden administration is preparing to increase the import tariff on Chinese electric vehicles from the current 25% to 100%, while imposing an additional tariff of 2.5% on all cars imported into the United States from all other countries in the world (automobiles)
The adjustment of the real-time turnover and daily quota balance of Northbound trading will be officially implemented on May 13. (Northbound Funding)
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in April, turning from a decline to an increase month-on-month. （CPI）
It is reported that Apple is about to reach an agreement with OpenAI to apply ChatGPT to the iPhone. (Artificial Intelligence)
CCTV financial news, a total of more than 50 cities across the country have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, of which 23 cities such as Xi'an, Chengdu and Hangzhou have completely canceled the purchase restriction. (Real Estate)
According to data from the China Charging Alliance, public charging piles increased by 68,000 units month-on-month in April, a year-on-year increase of 47.0%. (Charging pile)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.85, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 22.90, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 28.88, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 44.96, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 12.22, normal valuation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.59, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 24.12, normal valuation.
【Plate Analysis】
Consumption: At the beginning of this year, the data on short-term loans was not optimistic, reflecting that everyone's enthusiasm for borrowing money for consumption has not fully recovered. This means that the growth of retail credit such as credit card loans and car purchase loans may come under some pressure in the coming period.
However, we also need to see positive signals at the policy level, the government is actively promoting inclusive finance, supporting the credit needs of small and micro enterprises and individual consumers, especially those inclusive small and micro credit and daily consumer loan business, which may become a new engine for the growth of the entire consumer credit market. In addition, for the real estate market, the high-level meeting has released a signal to further optimize the regulatory policy, emphasizing the goal of promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In this way, if the real estate market data improves in the future, it will also indirectly drive related consumption, such as home decoration, home appliance upgrading, etc.
Therefore, when considering investment in the consumer sector, we may wish to focus on those areas that are expected to benefit from policy guidance, especially those that are closely related to inclusive finance and people's livelihood consumption. At the same time, pay close attention to the trend of the real estate market, once market confidence is boosted, consumer enterprises in the relevant industry chain may also usher in new development opportunities.
Of course, despite the policy support and potential market opportunities, we cannot ignore the current challenges faced by the consumer sector, after all, it will take some time for the current situation of weak overall financing demand of residents to be fundamentally improved. Therefore, when investing, we should focus on risk diversification, and choose consumer funds or individual stocks with stable fundamentals, great performance growth potential and policy dividends for allocation. While seizing the opportunity, we must not blindly chase high, and always remain rational and patient, which is the key to dealing with the volatility of the consumer sector.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: 50AH, Hong Kong market.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Ready to get off: CSI 300, 500 Quality, Fundamentals 50, China Securities Bank, Belt and Road, Building Materials, Hong Kong Small and Medium, S&P 500.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.