As May 20 approaches, Lai Qingde will hold a so-called "inauguration ceremony" on the island. It is precisely because Lai Qingde's attitude toward the mainland has been widely controversial that some people have even said that he is a pragmatic "Taiwan independence element." Therefore, he is about to take office and become the number one person on the island, and he has also become the focus of attention of the people on both sides of the strait.
Some people even believe that once Lai Qingde comes to power, it is very likely that more subtle changes will take place in cross-strait relations, and this has to be squarely faced. Even some diehards on the island have begun to make preparations for taking coercive measures against the mainland of the motherland. A few days ago, less than two weeks before Lai Qingde officially took office, the US Navy openly dispatched a 9,000-ton Arleigh Burke-class destroyer through the relevant waters of the Taiwan Strait on 8 May. In such a special period, it is obvious that the US side is running over to support the forces on the island.
According to this situation, whether it is now or in the future, once some friction really breaks out between the two sides of the strait, the United States will inevitably make trouble during this period. But the United States, which has been flexing its muscles around the world for a long time, is likely to be overconfident, and the United States should think carefully about how it is now facing a powerful China, not a small Middle Eastern country that can be ravaged by it, or a Russia that is powerless to fight back with a few means.
In other words, if the United States is determined to use the Taiwan Strait issue to compete with us, then a large-scale conflict between China and the United States really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, and the consequences will be unimaginable.
In this regard, the relevant personnel of the Quincy Institute, a US think tank, have issued a rather stern warning about the possibility of a direct conflict between China and the United States. They believe that once a conflict really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the scale of the conflict will be so large that it is "incomprehensible" to the United States. Taking the current Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example, once compared with the possible Sino-US conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war is just a bush on fire.
Indeed, compared to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although Russia is the world's leading military power, its opponent is only a small Ukraine. Therefore, no matter how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is fought, Russia will not be able to exert all its strength, and Ukraine will not be able to hurt Russia's vitality.
But China and the United States are different, in a sense, these two countries are already the world's top two players, not only military strength is quite terrifying, but also China and the United States in the economic and trade fields, are also quite important to the world. It can also be said that once a direct confrontation really breaks out between China and the United States, causing the economic and trade fields to be affected by the war, there is a high probability that other countries will also choose sides between China and the United States for the sake of interests, and these countries will not be able to stay out of the matter, and even join the conflict. By that time, there is a possibility that World War 3 will be ignited.
As for the game between China and the United States, as early as a few years ago, China's then defense minister warned the outside world, indicating that a serious conflict between China and the United States would be a "disaster that the whole world cannot afford."
If a conflict breaks out between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, what will be the scale and extent of the damage?
Some people hold that in the area around the Taiwan Strait, and even in the entire western Pacific, thousands of fighters of the PLA, such as J-20, J-16, and H-6 series bombers, as well as hundreds of warships, including advanced 0.55 million tons of large drives, aircraft carriers, and other warships, as well as the PLA's powerful missile forces, have covered the entire western Pacific. In this area, 2 million PLA troops can form a complete set of three-dimensional combat systems.
The United States, on the other hand, is also able to use a lot of troops in the western Pacific. For example, there are more than 60,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan and South Korea around the mainland, plus Japan and South Korea themselves have hundreds of thousands of troops. At the same time, the naval and air forces deployed by the United States in the first and second island chains, and even the entire Pacific Fleet, can send huge naval and air forces to the western Pacific in a short period of time. In this case, the size of the U.S. military presence around China is likely to be more than 1 million (including Japan and South Korea).
There has also been a data show that even in the case of the global strategic deployment of the United States, if the United States intends to focus on fighting with the PLA, then the maximum number of troops that can be assembled in the western Pacific is 6~7 percent of the total number of US troops.
How so? Some people say that the overall strength of the PLA is equivalent to 60 or 70 percent of the strength of the US military. In this way, if a conflict between China and the United States does break out in the western Pacific, then both sides will be evenly matched. But it is precisely this kind of parity that will make the cost of losses for both sides even heavier.
Previously, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, had conducted a simulation based on the final cost of losses in the conflict in 2026 when the People's Liberation Army (PLA) suddenly took coercive measures against Taiwan, and then the United States and Japan both intervened with troops.
The think tank believes that by then, the PLA will lose at least more than 130 main warships and more than 150 military aircraft of various types in the Taiwan Strait conflict. At the same time, the armed forces of the United States, Japan, and the Taiwan region will also focus on striking at the PLA's amphibious landing fleet to prevent the PLA's land troops from stepping on the land of Taiwan Island. Therefore, the amphibious landing fleet of the PLA will be lost in this conflict.
Of course, the losses on the part of the United States and Japan were also very large. The results of this simulation show that the US aircraft carrier battle group will be the primary target of the PLA's anti-ship ballistic missiles, so the US military will lose at least two aircraft carriers and at least 10 other Aegis warships in the formation in this operation. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which are fighting with the US military, will be destroyed by the PLA more than 100 fighters and 20~30 capital warships, and this kind of loss is also very large.
Of course, we must also mention the armed forces of the Taiwan authorities. The US think tank believes that in this battle, all the combat ships and most of the fighters will be completely lost by the PLA. This is because the PLA will list the Taiwan military as the primary target of attack, and even at the beginning of the conflict, the warships of the Taiwan military docked at the port and the large number of warplanes parked at the airport will be destroyed by the PLA in an instant. To put it simply, most of the equipment losses of the Taiwan army were destroyed by the surprise attack of the PLA at the beginning of the conflict. The equipment of the United States and Japan was lost in direct battles with the PLA.
Despite this, this American think tank still believes that the United States, Japan, and China's Taiwan region, although they will pay a rather painful price, will still achieve a "victory" in this conflict and "successfully prevent" the PLA from taking over Taiwan.
However, if the United States dares to provoke a war in the western Pacific region knowing such a cost, then it means that the United States has gone crazy, and it can even be said that it has lost its mind. Even if the United States can win a "victory" in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will be a rather serious "crushing victory," and it will more likely lead to the collapse of US global strategic hegemony, and the US global influence will be greatly weakened, and the losses to the United States may be even greater.
Of course, one of the most noteworthy points is that we should be most vigilant against the United States launching a proxy war, that is, the United States does not directly participate in the war, but encourages the surrounding Xiaoxiao to drag China into the quagmire of war.
At present, the United States has been constantly using the South China Sea issue to support the Philippines, and recently sent nearly 10,000 US troops to assemble in the South China Sea, and held a massive joint military exercise with the Philippines in the relevant surrounding waters of the South China Sea. In other directions, the collusion between the United States and the diehard forces on the island has now begun to appear more and more unscrupulous, and the United States has continued to sell weapons to Taiwan, and it has even tried in vain to provide an international stage for the diehards on the island, with the intention of making the Taiwan military stubbornly resist to the end in a possible attack on Taiwan by the PLA, thus depleting the strength of the PLA.
In addition, Japan and South Korea, also under the instigation of the United States, have followed the US military to stir up tensions in the peninsula, and we have to focus more on the peninsula to deal with it.
More importantly, India, on China's southwestern border, is also interested in wooing the United States. There were even rumors before that the United States had conveyed a message to the Indian side, that is, once a conflict really broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States hoped that India would be able to put pressure on China from the southwestern border, and even take the opportunity to launch a military operation, so as to reduce the pressure on the US military in the Taiwan Strait.
In other words, the surrounding environment that China is currently facing has long been surging, and the United States is not only sowing discord in the situation around China, but also intends to tie more countries to the US chariot of containing China. Therefore, once this is really the case, then the whole body will be moved, and China may face the disadvantage of "fighting on all sides".
This is the one that requires our greatest attention, and it is also the situation that we should not be taken lightly. Although the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is not afraid of war and dares to fight for the sake of national sovereignty and security, we will not fight a war that we are uncertain about. The United States has always wanted to draw us into the quagmire of war, and all kinds of provocative actions are continuous, and the more the United States intends to do so, the more cautious we must be.
We are now focusing on economic development, and at the same time, the country is also making energy arrangements, such as the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline that has been put into operation, and a number of onshore oil and gas import pipelines that have reached a consensus with Russia, which can reduce China's dependence on sea transportation of energy.
You must know that some people in the United States have clamored more than once that once a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the United States should block the passage of the Strait of Malacca as soon as possible, and even join forces with the Philippines to take action in the South China Sea, so as to cut off China's maritime energy import channel. Until now, China has relied on sea transportation for energy, so it is impossible to imagine the impact on us if it were cut off. Therefore, China's vigorous efforts to develop onshore energy import channels with Russia and other countries are aimed at guarding against the misdeeds of the United States.
In short, China is currently making a larger strategic layout, and we must be cautious until these layouts are mature, and we must not be dragged into the water by the United States, thereby disrupting the pace of our strategic development.