"Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight", the power battery industry collectively accelerated to the era of "ultra-fast charging", and suddenly, it seemed that "thousands of trees and pear blossoms bloomed", and even lithium iron phosphate batteries were 4.5C.
And then it gets amazing.
For example, after the release of the Shenxing super-rechargeable battery last year, CATL (300750.SZ) once again released the Shenxing PLUS battery at this Beijing Auto Show.
The two indicators are very strong, with a range of 1000 kilometers, and at the same time, it can be charged for 10 minutes and a range of 600 kilometers (the first 4C lithium iron phosphate battery).
Moreover, just as the concept of "solid-state battery" continues to be strengthened, mainstream power battery companies are also intensively releasing new 5C "ultra-fast charging" batteries. So, will the full rollout of 5C landing applications come so soon?
Is the volume "5C fast charging" another "big leap forward" for battery companies? As a Weibo blogger said, "It is strange to roll up the charging power, but not to roll up the charging experience." ”
So fast, ready to go?
In fact, in addition to CATL, during the Beijing Auto Show, Sunwoda (300207.SZ) also released a new flash battery 3.0, with a peak charging rate of 6C and 80% SOC in 10 minutes.
In addition, Ruipu Lanjun (00666. HK) has also made a breakthrough in the Wending supercharging system, which is said to be able to charge for 10 minutes and range up to 500 kilometers. Not to be outdone, EVE Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) released ultra-fast charging technology in the silicon-based era, which can increase the range by 500 kilometers in 6 minutes.
There is also one, the "old three" China Innovation Airlines (03931.HK), launched the latest model of the "One-Stop Bettery" series ("OS products"), which mainly includes "top stream" cylindrical batteries and OS lithium iron phosphate battery packs, which can achieve a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.
"The 20 best-selling pure electric models in 2023 have a driving range of 400 kilometers to 650 kilometers. One of our points of view is that moderate battery life coupled with overcharging, such as charging to 80% in 10 minutes, is such a configuration to deal with our range anxiety. ”
For the role of supercharging, Deng Jie, general manager of Sunwoda's power battery system product line, said at the 5th International Exchange Conference on New Energy Vehicles and Power Batteries (CIBF2024 Chongqing) recently.
However, we still have to question whether the industry is ready for the landing of 5C fast charging?
First of all, industry insiders analyze that the current 5C battery is not "for ordinary people". At this stage, 3C or 4C batteries are the mainstream. Why?
Because 5C is only suitable for large-sized battery packs in the short term, if the battery pack is dozens of degrees, a large part of the thermal management and cooling materials will be stuffed, which will not only increase the weight and cost of the battery, but also reduce the energy density, which is not suitable for small and medium-sized cars.
The ideal 5C battery is also currently only used on the MEGA. 5C comes with a high cost and has to be used with products with premium capabilities. And those who can bear the weight and cost of this kind of battery are often only able to afford this kind of high-end and luxury electric cars with such large sizes.
Moreover, the ideal 5C supercharging pile, at present, there are 300 high-speed supercharging stations in the country, and each station has 1 5C pile, which can only be used for MEGA. The others are all 2C piles. At present, the limited consumer experience will not change until 5,000 supercharging stations are rolled out on a large scale.
Weibo blogger "Zhang Kangkang KK" also said, "In 2022~2023, Xiaopeng will retreat from 4C to 3C, and ideally rush to 5C." The director has always been very selective in the design of the product, but this time it is directly on the maximum power.
As the cost of technology increases, can the user experience also use its imagination and achieve an increase? This is the time to put the king of product experience to the test. If the big improvement in technology can't bring a big improvement in experience, then the factory director will also become a 'technology'. ”
Second, can the load on the grid be sustained?
With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, there is a huge demand for energy supplementation. The problem is that the change of high-power current will make the amplitude of the power grid fluctuation more and more, and the impact on the grid will be greater and the load fluctuation will be more violent.
In order to realize the vision of "charging for 10 minutes and a range of 600 kilometers", that is, "1 kilometer in 1 second", in addition to supercharging piles, it is reasonable to need to configure energy storage or build an integrated optical storage and charging station to supplement the support to balance the load fluctuations caused by ultra-fast charging models. This is also a problem for the increased cost of infrastructure.
Moreover, in actual scenarios, difficult and slow charging are still the "slots" of many consumers. Of course, this is also the starting point of battery companies to promote 5C batteries. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association, also said that there are still problems in the current charging infrastructure, such as imperfect layout, unreasonable structure, backward technology of old charging piles, unbalanced services, and insufficient standardized operation.
Secretary-General Cui and many industry experts are more optimistic about "supercharging" (ultra-fast charging). According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2023, new energy production and sales will reach 9.587 million units and 9.495 million units, respectively, an increase of 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, respectively, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2024, it will obviously exceed 10 million units.
However, for the annual increase of 10 million new energy vehicles, for the rapid development of supercharging piles, the load capacity of the power grid may be the key. There may be no worries in the near term, but there are definitely worries in the long term.
In addition, there are many problems in the construction of charging piles. For example, there are not many models with 4C charging in China, only Xiaopeng, AVATAR, Extreme Fox and so on, so the construction of 4C charging stations does not seem to be a very urgent "thing in front of the eye", and 5C is even more advanced.
Moreover, there is still a situation of diversion of charging piles, and the user experience also needs to be strengthened.
In the final analysis, 5C supercharging piles are a problem of diminishing marginal benefits. In fact, other infrastructure supporting problems have been solved, and maybe 3C-4C is enough.
At present, 5C on the car and on the pile, there is no safety verification brought by large-scale application.
However, marketing is too advanced, which is not a good thing for vehicle companies and battery companies.
Marginal benefits of the 5Cs
In addition, although ultra-fast charging has become the propaganda signboard of various companies, there is a saying that "it makes no sense to talk about 5C or 4C fast charging without battery life".
After all, the way to improve the charging rate is nothing more than two ways of high voltage and high current, so the current 800V high voltage platform is to take the way to increase the voltage.
For example, at 250A current, 800V can easily support 2C charging, and when the voltage is doubled and the charging power remains the same, the charging current can be smaller, the wiring harness can also be very thin, saving costs, and the high-voltage route supports longer fast charging.
But this also brings a problem, 20C and 30C can be used in the laboratory, but when it comes to the actual car scene, not all batteries can withstand such a toss.
Industry insiders said that an open secret in the industry is that at present, almost all passenger car power batteries, the manufacturer's settings are to allow the system to display about 10% less power than the actual situation.
Then, in the 1~3 years of battery use, this part of the stored power will be slowly released to dynamically match the previous 90% power.
This can lead to the illusion that the battery will work very well for the first three to five years, after which many brands will deteriorate rapidly. Therefore, OEMs will do this cycle again through personalized OTA in a few years to maintain brand reputation.
And the current 4C or more aggressive 5C charging will make this "silent" OTA more frequent. For users, it may be about 5 years to change the car, there is no feeling, but, in addition to the cost, the theoretical battery life cycle may be dried up and fished, and what about the environmental protection behind? What about recycling?
Right. We can't just focus on immediate interests.
In addition, according to Huawei's calculations, to achieve fast charging in less than 5 minutes, the power of the charging pile must be upgraded to 480kW and matched with liquid-cooled supercharging stations.
According to Huawei's 2023-2025 High-Voltage Fast Charging Industry Development Report, it is expected that by the end of 2026, the market number of high-voltage fast charging models will reach more than 13 million. However, in addition to models with high-voltage platform architecture, the adaptation of liquid-cooled supercharging stations is also indispensable in the face of high requirements for heat dissipation brought by high-power charging piles.
As for the liquid-cooled supercharging technology, the Huibo Intelligent Investment Research Report believes that compared with the traditional DC pile, the current liquid-cooled supercharging pile has a much higher investment per watt, and it still needs to be reduced on a large scale. In other words, not to the point of universal acceptance. "Supercharging still needs to seize ecological resources and reduce costs in large-scale operations." Relevant analysts in the industry said bluntly.
In order to reduce costs as soon as possible, the more friends, the better. For example, Huawei has joined hands with car companies, charging operators, and industry partners to establish the "Supercharging Alliance".
CATL said that it has officially launched the construction of the Shenxing supercharging network, and has joined hands with Huawei, Star Charging, Cloud Fast Charging, Shudao New Energy, etc., to build the largest supercharging service platform in China. And these have just been launched, so what about the 5C?
The second problem, to achieve ultra-fast charging, is inseparable from the all-round innovation of power battery materials, structure, and system.
In the improvement of the material system, the modification and coating of the negative electrode are the core links to realize fast charging.
However, judging from the current situation, it will take time for the previously hyped "silicon-doped lithium supplement" to land on a large scale. In my previous article "Your Battery, Is It Doped with Silicon to Supplement Lithium"? This issue has already been clarified.
Or when it comes to the ideal Kirin 5C ultra-rechargeable battery of CATL, when the battery is delivered to the user, CATL has a complete safety monitoring system for the battery, whether it is at the vehicle end, or at the charging station, or in the cloud, there is a complete trinity algorithm and three lines of defense to protect safety. Do other battery companies have such a match? Wait a minute.
In general, the breakthrough of 5C battery technology and safety difficulties is not achieved overnight.
Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious and not let technological progress go out of shape, and the "Great Leap Forward" has gone too far. We will continue to follow this topic and welcome your views and opinions.