Every year, the "Golden Three, Silver and Fourth" is the peak season for logistics, which also drives a wave of new car sales. Relevant data in April show that light vehicles, as the main force of urban distribution, have blown the "charge" in various segments. What trends are being released behind the hot market? Truck E family for a detailed analysis.
In April, the month-on-month and year-on-year "double increases" reached the peak in nearly a year
According to the data of the truck e-group data center, 55,592 diesel light vehicles rolled off the assembly line in April (including light trucks, light refrigerated trucks, and VAN vehicles), an increase of 42.9% from 38,899 units in March, and it has achieved three consecutive increases after the beginning of 2024.
(Comparison of the number of diesel light vehicles coming off the assembly line from March to April)
Compared with the same period last year, the data in April this year is also "very good". In April last year, 32,093 units rolled off the assembly line, while in the same period this year, it soared by 73.2%. If we extend the data dimension to one year, we will find that in the past April, the number of diesel light vehicles off the assembly line climbed to the peak of nearly a year. Of course, last year actually experienced the recovery of the "Golden Three Silver Four" market, and the number of offline units reached 45,068 units in March last year, which happened to be the last peak, and it can only be said that "a mountain is still higher than a mountain".
(Comparison of diesel light vehicle production volume in the same period last year)
Judging from the data results, this "fire" of diesel light vehicles seems to be somewhat unexpected. After all, many people in the industry believe that under the stimulus of policies such as the new blue card regulations and the restriction of fuel vehicles in some cities, the current market for diesel light vehicles has basically stabilized, and there is little room for growth. However, after dismantling the sales structure and analyzing the regional characteristics, we found that this sky-high opportunity is really reserved for those "discerning" brands.
(Fluctuation chart of diesel light vehicle off-line volume in the past year)
In the regional market with many climbs and heavy loads, high-horsepower diesel light trucks will rise
Splitting the sales structure of subdivided models, in fact, light trucks can be regarded as "stable performance". In March and April 2023, 34,418 and 22,266 units rolled off the assembly line, respectively, while this year's data is 25,551 and 34,739 units, coupled with the weak performance in February this year, only 18,168 units rolled off the assembly line. Therefore, this year is more like "silver three gold four", and the recovery of the light truck market after the beginning of the year is slower than last year.
(Fluctuation chart of the number of diesel light trucks coming off the assembly line in the past year)
Market opportunities are changing rapidly, and whoever has a keen insight will be rewarded in terms of sales. In the field of light trucks, Sinotruk HOWO light trucks and FAW Jiefang light trucks have achieved the best results in the past year. Jiangling Motors, Nanjing Iveco, and JAC 1 card have also achieved good increments.
(Top 10 diesel light trucks rolled off the assembly line in April)
Further refinement to the model level, the TOP10 brands have more than one hot-selling model. For example, Sinotruk HOWO light trucks, the three "hot models" of Titan, Dream Chasing, and Commander account for more than 90% of the brand's sales. There are also FAW Jiefang light trucks, J6F, Tiger V, Tiger VR, and Lingtu are also selling very well, and they are "sales blossoming" all over the country.
JAC 1 card has a number of sub-brands in the field of light vehicles, and Junling, Shuailing, and Weiling can all be ranked in the TOP10 when they are pulled out. If you look at the overall offline volume of JAC 1 card, it can be said to be "NO.1 in the light truck industry".
From the perspective of market trends, the top brands focus on the following regions: Shandong, Henan and Hebei in North China are all provinces with large industrial and agricultural resources, and road transportation is very prominent, and it is naturally a "must fight" for light commercial vehicles. The Yangtze River Delta is located at the intersection of the developed economic belt along the eastern coast of the mainland, and the urban distribution logistics of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other provinces and cities are thriving, attracting cardholders from all over the country to go to gold panning. The six "major provinces with urban distribution" in the north and south jointly contributed 4,993 light trucks in April, accounting for 14.4% of the total off-line volume.
[Top 10 regions of diesel light truck sales in April:
Jiangxi, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, Guangdong, Yunnan】
The mainland is vast, and each city has its own unique urban distribution scene. Like Sichuan, which is located in the southwest, there are many mountainous areas around the Chengdu Plain, and the transportation scene often needs to climb and overtake with full load, and the model selection must be high horsepower. This can also be evidenced by the best-selling cars, such as the same FAW Jiefang light truck Tiger V, 90% of the orders in Sichuan are 180 horsepower models, and in Zhejiang, where the flat road is the majority, a lot of 120-140 horsepower models have been sold.
Not only the Tiger V, but the data shows that the sales of diesel light trucks in the 160-180 horsepower segment in Sichuan will continue to rise in 2024, and in April it even reached more than 4 times that of the same period last year. Brands such as Sinotruk HOWO light truck, FAW Jiefang light truck, and JAC 1 truck sell well, which is to grasp the characteristics of subdivided users and meet their scene needs with refined models.
(Sichuan Province 160-180 horsepower segment diesel light truck sales fluctuation chart)
This also reflects that an area with complex terrain like Sichuan is not suitable for new energy vehicles. Because electric vehicles cannot meet the needs of climbing and heavy-duty transportation in the southwest mountainous areas, cardholders have to return to diesel light trucks. It is believed that in the southwest market of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing, the demand for high-horsepower diesel light trucks will further grow.
VAN vehicles tend to be saturated, and the recovery of tourism and the increase in passenger capacity are "headed"
Continuing the surge momentum in February, the number of VAN vehicles rolling off the assembly line in March and April this year is still very considerable. According to data from the Truck E-Family Data Center, 11,943 diesel VAN vehicles rolled off the assembly line in March 2024, a slight decrease from 14,084 units in February, but soon rose to 19,168 units in April. Among diesel light vehicles, VAN vehicles accounted for 34.5% of sales in April, compared with the past year, and this year's VAN vehicles have a tendency to "lift the table" with light trucks. If the "cake" of diesel light vehicles wants to continue to "ferment", then the incremental market must be in VAN vehicles.
(Proportion of diesel VAN vehicles off the assembly line and sales structure in the past year)
On the one hand, the implementation of policies such as the new blue plate regulations and urban traffic restrictions will continue to promote the reform of the light vehicle market, and some light truck users will turn their attention to VAN vehicles with high cost performance, few restrictions and flexible parking. For example, in the Yangtze River Delta cities such as Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang, because there is no need for double licenses, the right of way is higher than that of light trucks, and the demand for VAN vehicles on freight platforms is also very large, VAN cars with lower entry thresholds are naturally very popular.
(Diesel VAN vehicle production volume and brand share in April)
On the other hand, Sichuan, Yunnan, Hebei and other places, areas outside the provincial capital city are also accelerating development, and the demand for terminal distribution has risen sharply.
Another point that may be easy to overlook is that the VAN car can be used to pull goods and carry passengers. Nanjing Iveco, which rolled off the assembly line with 9,506 units in April, once again reproduced the magic of 9,417 units in February. Opening the sales map, we found that in addition to the Yangtze River Delta region, which has always been hot, Nanjing Iveco is actually popular in Xinjiang. In addition to seizing the terminal urban distribution market, Nanjing Iveco has also been deeply engaged in the field of tourism in recent years. According to the news, Nanjing Iveco and Xinjiang tourist passenger transport enterprises have cooperated to trade nearly 1,000 VAN vehicles, and have been put into Xinjiang tourism operations.
(Sales map of Nanjing Iveco in April)
During the May Day holiday just past, the number of mainland trips increased by 7.6% year-on-year and 28.2% over the same period in 2019, ushering in a strong recovery in the tourism industry. Immediately after July and August, it will enter the summer tourism season, such as Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are the leading provinces in tourism, presumably there will be a market gap for diesel VAN cars. The major VAN car companies should play more "people" ideas, "build VAN cars for Xinjiang", "build VAN cars for the tourism industry", maybe they can find another way to achieve good incremental results in the field of diesel VAN vehicles.
Write at the end
In the era of stock competition, the incremental space for diesel light vehicles is indeed very small. Coupled with the "constraints" of various policies, the consumption trend of diesel light trucks will be more rational after the "Golden Three Silver Four". Users who need to climb slopes and heavy loads in the southwest will focus on high-horsepower models. The current strong performance of diesel VAN vehicles in Xinjiang is believed to give new inspiration to many car companies and launch more high-quality models that solve market pain points. Judging from the trend of data, the truck e-family will also bring you more in-depth analysis, please continue to pay attention.