Suddenly, I can't see the "northbound" trend, which is inevitably uncomfortable, so that many investors can't find the feeling of "north", in fact, there is no need to guess today, northbound funds must be slightly short, of course, the market is like this, naturally inseparable from the power of domestic institutions 26 billion smashing. Judging from the current market environment, the outflow of foreign capital today is very normal, because foreign capital really can't do the momentum of going long. According to the news over the weekend, this Thursday to restart the IPO review, the first 4 months of social finance data significantly lower than expected, there are so many financial fraud, where do foreign capital dare to do long, and today's intraday RMB exchange rate has a large depreciation, based on the continuous depreciation of the people's exchange rate in recent days, at least it can be judged that foreign capital will not be long.
The closure of foreign intraday trends is said to be due to the interference caused by intraday foreign capital movements, as if it is difficult for the market to rise sharply if the market is closed for foreign capital movements. It is obvious that foreign capital has become the vane of the market, of course, many people are not convinced at all, thinking that this is complete nonsense, and how can it affect the rise and fall of the market with the average daily turnover of foreign capital less than one-tenth of the transaction of A-shares. But you can't explain the reason why the market rises when foreign capital goes long and the market falls when foreign capital shorts, you can only say that the follow-up force behind foreign capital is really strong. Why is it that the inflow and outflow of the two main forces of foreign capital and domestic capital are announced in real time during the intraday, and everyone prefers to track the relatively small foreign capital, rather than the relatively large domestic institutions? The key is that you have to track the movement of domestic capital, then you can't play, because the real flow of domestic capital throughout the year is not a few days, especially in the past few years, almost thunderous net outflow, if you want to track domestic capital, you can only lie down and not play.
In the final analysis, it is still afraid of foreign capital to close foreign capital, if we follow the domestic capital to smash the market, is it necessary to close the trend of domestic capital, no wonder, many investors strongly recommend closing domestic real-time trading data at the same time, is this fair, originally like domestic capital such a big short has been shorting, such a reference does not look at it, it is good to close, I don't know if you agree with.
At the end of the week, I posted that the probability of a short-term continued downward fall is larger, this morning I also think that today's low open down the probability of smashing is larger, after the afternoon session, although the index pulled up, but I still think that the probability of falling back in the afternoon is very large, the morning did not enter the market in the big fall, I had to wait and see, today's trend completely confirmed my prediction.
Judging from the K-line chart, the three major stock indexes all closed the positive line, but it belonged to the falling false positive line, the disk performance was very miserable, only 1,100 stocks rose, the ratio of rise and fall was almost 1 to 4, and the price limit was only 39, but the fall limit was as many as 77, and the disk performance was miserable.
Everyone thinks by heart, after May Day, the index has continued to hit new highs, until today the index is still rising, even the gap formed on the first day after the holiday has not been filled, and your account is back to blood?
To be honest, everyone feels miserable, the index does not make money, the index rises completely depends on the credit of the weight, the overall small and medium-sized themes are very miserable, today is the sixth trading day after May Day, but many stocks have fallen for more than 6 days.
The Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market made up for the gap on the last day after the holiday last week, but the Shanghai Composite Index approached the gap three times in a row but did not fill it, and repeatedly pulled it up. But the problem is that the index is strong is really meaningless, after all, whether individual stocks can rise is the key, whether we can make money is the last word, there is no money-making effect of the market, everyone has no confidence, leaving the gap not to fill, but more worrying, if the market money-making effect is very strong, the gap and unwilling to make up, so that it is strong, everyone believes that the gap is a strong support for the market to rise.
Of course, in order to prove the strength of the market, in order to prove the ability of the main force to control the market, take out the 30-minute chart of the Shanghai Index, it can be clearly seen that the Shanghai Index on May 6, 8, and today have stepped back to 3126 points less than a point and pulled up, so it is believed that the main force is deliberately sending a strong signal to investors.
In fact, this kind of thinking is completely a kind of self-psychological massage, if you think about it, the volume of the entire Shanghai market is tens of trillions, who can control the rhythm of the market so accurately, but every time it reaches the gap position, there are some funds entering the market, so the index is pulled up.
Even if there is a deliberate control of the main force, this gap is not a breakthrough gap, and it doesn't make much sense to keep it, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market have already made up for it. And we have been emphasizing that whether the market can be strong or not, mainly depends on the Shenzhen Index and the Growth Enterprise Market, because they are acting on behalf of the market's money-making effect, they are strong is the real strength, and investors' confidence will be restored, and the index that determines the strength of the market has filled the gap, the Shanghai Index such a gap is meaningless, there is no need to excessively amplify the significance of this gap.
The gap has not been filled repeatedly, which does not represent the strength of the market, but will add a worry to the market.
The amount of energy can continue to be low, there is no amount of aggressiveness, the market can not rise at all, the volume is a necessary condition for the market to continue to rise, there is no amount of energy can not be pushed, it proves that the market has no confidence.
The main line is even more indescribable, the electric fan-style market, you can't make money at all, today's main line is around the concept of price increases, which is the nature of the defense, and the market of this kind of plate is not easy, can not attract more funds to participate, so it can not drive the disk to be active.
Not to mention the money-making effect, who will have confidence and who will dare to enter the market if they lose money every day. Recently, the market is obviously good to push forward, once there is no good, the market can remain volatile. What's more, this weekend has been hit by a lot of negative news, so it's not surprising that it fell today.
The index bottoming out seems to be very strong, but this is the result of the efforts of the disk protection funds, which has not brought about the improvement of the money-making effect, and the recovery of the index is not of much significance. It's just a short-term balance, once it can't go up, it has to fall down.
In the short term, don't think that the market can't fall because the Shanghai Composite Index is continuously supported in the gap position, and if you can't attack strongly in the short term, the market will still fluctuate repeatedly. The short-term is still dominated by shocks, and the operation continues to remain cautious.
In stark contrast to the weakness of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks have recently performed strongly, and the Hang Seng Index has entered a technical annual market, hitting new highs for three consecutive days.
1. Hong Kong stocks have continued to rise sharply recently, whose credit is it?
First of all, we look at the statistics that since the beginning of this year, only 12 days of southbound funds have been net outflows, and the rest of the time are inflows, which are obviously related to a large number of funds going south, and the net outflow of domestic capital is almost endless.
Secondly, Hong Kong stocks are highly open markets, and there will definitely be a large amount of foreign capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks. Besides, compared with the T+0 trading of Hong Kong stocks, it is more attractive for foreign capital to enter the market.
Although in the short term, the sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks has not been transmitted to A-shares, and the impact on A-shares is relatively small, but we must firmly believe that once Hong Kong stocks continue to rise, it will definitely form a positive stimulating effect on A-shares, and it will also attract foreign capital to go long A-shares.
2. Today's market has withstood the impact of bearishness, will it counterattack again tomorrow?
First of all, the market to counterattack also depends on foreign capital, although we can not see the trend of foreign capital, but we may observe the trend of domestic institutions to judge the trend of foreign capital, if the outflow of domestic capital is greatly reduced, the probability of foreign capital return is larger, even if foreign capital does not return, the market will not be worse.
But from my understanding, funds need to be good stimulus, otherwise it will not form a joint force, at least for now, there is no blockbuster positive stimulus, and the market is more volatile.
Tomorrow, we will focus on observing several indicators: one is the trend of Hong Kong stocks, and the other is the trend of the securities sector, as long as the securities can continue to strengthen, the broad market index will rebound further. Third, on the opening time-sharing chart, observe whether the yellow line representing the small and medium-sized theme can be above the white line representing the weight, if the subject matter is dominant, the opportunity will be greater tomorrow, if the securities can be stronger, tomorrow will naturally be happy, otherwise it is still mainly shocking, you can only see more and move less, and you can only participate in the rapid rise and fall, and the small rise and fall will not move.
If you don't grasp the short-term well, it's best to toss a little and hold shares firmly, which is thankless.
3. What are the key opportunities?
First, sea freight rates have skyrocketed, and "one cabin is hard to find" has reappeared There is a serious backlog of foreign trade goods
Take a look at the A-share shipping port index, which rose sharply against the trend today, and has come out of a clear upward trend since March, forming a perfect bullish trend. To discuss whether this trend can continue, we have to analyze what are the main reasons for this round of price increases?
From the perspective of institutional analysis, behind this wave of "madness" is still attributed to the imbalance of supply and demand "balance" - on one end is the shortage of capacity supply, and on the other end is the recovery of market demand.
The reasons for the tight supply are multiple. The main thing is that the impact of the deviation caused by the situation in the Red Sea continues to accumulate. Then the Red Sea crisis will not be lifted, and the price increase will continue.
The rebound in demand is mainly due to data from the General Administration of Customs, which shows that the mainland's foreign trade has maintained an upward trend. In the first four months of 2024, the total value of mainland trade in goods was 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Among them, exports increased by 4.9% and imports increased by 6.8%.
According to the analysis of professionals: "The increase in demand is somewhat more than expected. However, due to the sharp rise in freight rates, their recent business volume has only rebounded slightly. In his opinion, international freight rates will continue to rise before June this year.
Drewry, a well-known British shipping consultancy, also expects that China's freight rates will continue to rise in the coming week due to huge demand surges and tight capacity.
Second, Samsung and SK hynix will stop supplying DDR3 and push up the price by two percent
According to the Taiwan Economic Daily, it is reported in the industry that Samsung and SK hynix, the world's leading DRAM suppliers, will stop supplying DDR3 niche DRAM from the second half of the year after sprinting for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and mainstream DDR5 memory.
Samsung has informed customers that it will discontinue DDR3 by the end of Q2; SK hynix, on the other hand, transferred the DDR3 process to DDR4 at its Wuxi plant in mainland China at the end of last year, which is equivalent to no longer supplying DDR3. Micron, another major manufacturer, has also significantly reduced the supply of DDR3 in order to expand the production capacity of DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory.
Focusing on the domestic industrial chain, the performance of DDR3 products in mainland China is comparable to that of overseas manufacturers, and Fabless manufacturers such as GigaDevice, Beijing Junzheng, and Dongxin Co., Ltd. mainly focus on DDR3 and small-capacity DDR4, but there is still a gap between Chinese and Taiwan manufacturers in terms of the number of parts.
Third, the price of residential electricity will increase from June 1? Refuting rumors in many places! Guangdong Jiexi responded that "the electricity bill has risen from 3 cents to 6 cents and 8 can't afford to pay"
Recently, the price increase has become a hot topic, some high-speed railways have risen, and the price of water in Guangdong has risen. Market analysis believes that in the context of the slow overall growth of CPI, in order to achieve the annual CPI growth target of 3%, there is no good way for others to raise prices, from the field of essential consumer goods. Although there is no specific policy to introduce at present, the market will not be groundless, and the rise in electricity prices in the future is a high probability, which may be transmitted to the rise in food prices. In fact, as a farmer, I know very well that it is not easy for farmers to farm land, and it is better for an ordinary farmer to work in the city for a month at the end of a year. A large amount of land is transferred in the rural areas, and many people contract land, and it is profitable to plant a large area.
In fact, if the price of grain rises again, there is no chemical fertilizer, and the price of seeds rises rapidly, and then the price rises to the growers, which may not be able to increase profits.
I think the curtain of price increases has been opened, and investors should make a fuss about the general price increase. Looking for a subject of price increases, I also made a detailed interpretation in the article yesterday, and interested investors can look through it.