After his re-election, Putin made a surprise personnel change, replacing the defense minister while a series of senior officials, including the foreign minister, remained in office. Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was appointed secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, while Belousov, who was the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, became the new defense minister.
The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation is a very delicate position. In terms of rank, this position can be considered the third person in Russia, the status is very high, and Shoigu can be considered a promotion. But on the other hand, the Security Council of the Russian Federation is seen as a place of "decent retirement", for example, when Medvedev stepped down from the presidency and became the deputy chairman of the Security Council.
Therefore, whether Shoigu is really promoted this time, or whether he is promoted openly and secretly, depends on whether he has real power in his hands. Judging by the current situation, Putin's appointment to Shoigu still puts him in charge of the military-industrial complex, and he did not take away this power, so it is more likely that he will be promoted.
Shoigu
Why, then, did Putin, while retaining Shoigu's power, additionally promote individual Lousovs to participate in the construction of the military-industrial complex? The answer is that he is most likely preparing for the further development of the wartime economy. Belousov is an economist with a background in serious research on "cybernetics," who is good at "macroeconomic regulation and control" and advocates concentrating forces on major tasks.
Putin's personnel change this time should be more about adding elements of economic construction to the Russian military-industrial system. The statement given by the Kremlin is also that Belovesov was appointed defense minister in the hope that he would give full play to his strengths and help the "powerful sector" better drive the Russian economy.
This personnel change proves that Putin has made two judgments. First, the war will become a new economic growth point for Russia. Second, the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to evolve into a low-intensity long-term war. The first point is actually quite dark humor. After Russia's "change of color", from Yeltsin to Putin, they have been looking for a shortcut that can develop the economy.
Belousov
But alas, after a little half a century, Russia still lingers in the position of "gas station", living on the export of resources. However, a "table-lifting" Russian-Ukrainian war unexpectedly revived the Russian economy, and the wartime economy can be regarded as completely giving full play to Russia's resource advantages and advantages in being good at heavy industry.
According to research by the Central Bank of Finland, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's military industry has grown by at least 35%, and more than 20% of the total spending of the Russian central government has also gone to the defense sector. Although the light industry has shrunk slightly, because Russia has fully "turned eastward", it has been doing well for a long time.
According to German media assessments, Russia's GDP will grow by more than 3% in 2023. This figure is indeed not impressive compared to China and ASEAN, but it is enough to overtake Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, which are traditional economic powers struggling on the brink of recession in Europe. Russia has tasted the sweetness, and it is not surprising that it is now determined to further develop its wartime economy.
Moreover, Belousov is very good at dealing with oligarchs. In 2000, when Putin first became president and liquidated the oligarchs, Belousov served as an adviser to the prime minister, serving as Putin's right-hand man, re-nationalizing Russia's energy, media, chemical, and power sectors.
In 2023, Putin decided to impose a so-called "excess profit tax" on domestic oligarchs, which was also arranged by Belousov. Of course, in addition to economic considerations, political considerations may also be a factor in Putin's push for this personnel change.
Belousov has a good relationship with Mishustin, the prime minister appointed by Putin and speculated to be the "successor" by the outside world.
Mishustin
After talking about the first judgment, let's talk about Putin's second judgment, that is, the Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to turn into a long-term war, and only a long-term war can have the conditions to develop the wartime economy. After all, if Putin is determined to develop the wartime economy today, and tomorrow the conflict in Ukraine will be over, then all his current plans will be in vain.
So the next question is, how will the Russia-Ukraine conflict develop in Putin's plan? A simple speculation is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to turn into a "quagmire" next year. However, unlike the United States and the West, this "quagmire" will not make Ukraine a bleeding and purulent wound on Russia, but a wound for bleeding Europe.
When it comes to fighting a long-term war, Europe is obviously not as good as Russia, and it is not fully prepared materially and spiritually. Putin's idea now should be to direct the war to the areas where Russia excels, and then use his own strengths to attack the other's shortcomings. However, another question arises, how can Russia set strategic goals in Ukraine so that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can become a quagmire that traps Europe?
Russian army shelled Ukrainian positions
It is clear that Ukraine will not be able to fight anymore, and the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv direction has made very good progress, and now the Russian army has penetrated deep into Volchansk and occupied the central area of Krasnogorivka. But the problem is that, judging from the scale of the troop deployment, this Russian offensive on the northern front should only be a tentative offensive, and it did not expect to get results so quickly.
Kharkiv is one of the key fortresses built by Ukraine after the start of the war, and the region has the "most powerful fortifications in all of Ukraine". Before the Russian army launched the offensive, many people judged that this round was just a "feint", with the goal of containing the Ukrainian forces on the southern and eastern fronts and serving to further control the Donetsk region.
But now that the offensive against Kharkov is progressing rapidly, it is difficult to say whether the "feint" will turn into a "real offensive". However, one thing is certain, the Ukrainian front is much weaker than expected by the United States, the West and even Russia itself, and Macron's previous worries about Ukraine's "collapse" are not groundless.
European Union
According to the current situation, by the middle of next year at the latest, the Russian army is likely to take the eastern part of Ukraine to establish a so-called "buffer zone". If this is the case, how can we continue to develop the wartime economy? There is only one answer, and that is to constantly push the front forward and expand the occupation to Odessa and even Kiev.
If so, then Europe will be quite uncomfortable. Recently, the European Union has just reported that 27 countries have agreed on long-term military and financial support for Ukraine, and a new draft aid will be coming up soon.
The high-pitched voices of European politicians have already been sung, then now the initiative to end the conflict is no longer on their side, but on the side of Russia. If Putin doesn't stop for a day, Europe will have to fight with him for a day. Under such circumstances, Europe, which is not prepared for a "wartime economy", may not be able to consume Russia, which has already made arrangements in advance, and the EU's economic prospects are quite dangerous this time.
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