Give everyone a humorous puzzle for seven-year-olds -
Q: What is the first step in the real hammer this year?
Answer: Don't refuse or admit it, use a silent posture to beat the sloppy eye!
As early as the end of April, the "Roadside Society" was rumored that Hangzhou would cancel the purchase restriction policy after the May Day holiday.
For more than a week, not to mention that there was no rumor, there was not even a fart...
Sure enough!
Early in the morning of May 9, Hangzhou issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Market Regulation and Control Policy".
I have "notified" something specifically, I won't go on the eight-share article, and the intermediary brother is quite in place-
1) The city-wide purchase restrictions have been lifted, and new houses in the four districts of the main city have also been liberalized;
2) The first house is identified by district, and each district manages each district;
3) Resumption of the policy of housing purchase and settlement;
4) For the floating listings, the developer can sell them independently;
5) In areas with large supply inventory and slow depletion, the land supply model will be optimized.
Since the G20 summit was held, the purchase restriction order that has been implemented for nearly eight years has officially come to an end.
No household registration, no social security card, whether it is full of food and drink, or walking the streets and alleys with a bell - I just want to afford the down payment, "I am a Hangzhou person if I buy it"!
Those who are bold and careful and not afraid of carrying debts can also discuss the first set of ten districts and three counties and cities one by one.
As long as it continues to be supplied, even if it is the "pillar of Hangzhou", you have a credit for the construction of the fourth phase of Hangzhou Metro!
This credit policy is definitely the most lenient in the country, and there is no one.
The optimization of the notarization lottery system allows real estate companies to have more flexible sales autonomy;
To a certain extent, this achieves a delicate balance between the policy regulation end and the market regulation end, which is a good thing for decentralization.
In addition, areas with large inventories and slow destocking should be tied up with "involution backlogs" to avoid "selling more and more" to the greatest extent.
Although the de-commercialization period of commercial housing in Hangzhou is far less than 36 months, this is obviously in response to the call of the Ministry of Natural Resources.
The policy was optimized a few months ago, and I still know how to keep a pants.
This time, I went straight to everyone and got naked.
More importantly, there are various methods, both ends of supply and demand are explained, and sincerity is basically in place!
On the morning of the full relaxation of purchase restrictions in Hangzhou, the intermediary brother in WeChat, the real estate consultant in the circle of friends, the neighbors in the owner group, and the buddies and brothers in other cities collectively listened to it-
This one said "Hangzhou finally admitted", and the other said "Hurry up to your hometown and shake people to buy a house";
This yin and yang weird "Oh, I don't buy a house because of the purchase restriction", that paragraph went straight to the next three roads and said, "What's the use of picking up the ring after menopause?" ”
Some asked "should I sell or buy first if I want to replace it", and some are thinking about "taking advantage of the heat to cash out and leave the market"...
Hangzhou has taken off its pants this time, and the motive is actually very simple - to stabilize the local land and financial fundamentals!
In 2023, Hangzhou's land transfer income will be 178 billion, a decrease of 19.21% from 220.34 billion in 2022;
Compared with the 308.4 billion land transfer income in 2021, the land sale income in 2023 is simply a pain in the hips.
After entering 2024, the cooling of Hangzhou's local auctions is actually quite obvious.
The results of the first quarter of the local auction are not squeaked, and you can see the following picture for the specific situation-
Hangzhou's financial dependence on land has been maintained between 110 and 140% all year round.
If you don't know how expensive firewood and rice are, let's talk about burning money:
The fourth phase of the Hangzhou Metro plan was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission as early as November 2022, and construction will start in July 2023 and is expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2028.
The total investment of 152.9 kilometers of line mileage is expected to be 138.791 billion, with an average cost of 9 billion per kilometer.
A few months after the start of the fourth phase of the plan, the news of the start of the fifth phase of the subway plan came immediately, and the legend is that it is 150 kilometers again, and it is conservatively estimated that it will cost more than 1300 billion...
As far as you are the person who speaks, you have to think about where to shake people at this juncture.
However, will it really be possible to get what you wish this time?
The truth is often not good, and this time Hangzhou lifted the purchase restriction, but it was just a punch on the cotton.
First of all, Hangzhou's purchase restriction order has long become a "fig leaf".
As early as the end of March this year, Hangzhou has lifted the city-wide restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses, but how are second-hand houses selling?
As of May 9, 156,500 second-hand residential units were listed, and the average transaction price fell by 1.88% month-on-month;
There were 14,647 houses that fell in price in 15 days, and only 822 houses that rose in price during the same period, a difference of nearly 18 times!
What is it called? Textbook-level "price for quantity"!
Although the four main urban areas of Shangcheng, West Lake, Gongshu and Binjiang still maintained the so-called "purchase limit" of new houses at that time, the play that can be bought by social security in one month is really more symbolic than practical.
This time, the purchase restriction is fully lifted, which is equivalent to telling everyone: you don't need to install a month's social security, you can buy it whenever you go!
Judging from the purchase restriction threshold, although the new deal is big enough, the change to the rules of the entire game is not very obvious.
Second, there is indeed a structural imbalance between the supply and demand ends of Hangzhou's property market.
This foreshadowing has actually been laid many years ago!
April 2018 was a watershed year for Hangzhou's property market.
Previously, the value of real estate in Hangzhou depended on the city's industry, management level, administrative level, geographical location and livable environment.
After that, "everything is inferior, only upside down high".
The price limit for new houses is 28800/㎡, the price limit for second-hand houses is 60,000/㎡, the price limit for new houses is 35,000/㎡, the price limit for second-hand houses is 80,000/㎡, the price limit for new houses is 69,800/㎡, and the price of second-hand houses is listed for 100,000/㎡...
I wrote it today, you feel like real estate chat, but it did happen in Hangzhou, and it successfully caused buyers from Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and even overseas to get into the game.
However, since the second half of 2021, we have seen the efficiency of the inverted plate gradually shrink with the naked eye on the map of Hangzhou.
Nowadays, what can really be called upside down is the few plates distributed along the core section of the Qiantang River-
The price limit for new houses is 50,000-70,000/㎡, and second-hand houses can theoretically be sold for 70,000-100,000/㎡.
However, the vast majority of sectors are facing varying degrees of de-escalation pressure.
Taking the "hot market tide" in April this year as an example, there is no real estate sales restriction, the total lottery number is close to 18,000 households, and the overall winning rate is 38.5%.
32 openings, 19 zero registrations, and even new listings that have not been approved are on the list...
This is not the "Twenty-Eight Law", this TM is called the "Twenty-Eighty Rule"!
But the problem is that although the old and young people from all over the country don't need to settle down and social security when they come to Hangzhou to buy a house, they still have to fight for social security if they really have a high upside-down red plate.
In this way, it is equivalent to saying that the foreign customer group is coming, and it can only help to get rid of those tepid or even zero registered new properties...
Judging from this detail, how practical is the full cancellation of purchase restrictions, I am afraid that everyone has a scale in their hearts.
Third, the wait-and-see sentiment of Hangzhou customers is stronger than that of espresso, and it really doesn't matter what the purchase is restricted.
A total of 4,771 commercial houses were traded in the city's new projects for sale, down 41.37% month-on-month and 57.87% year-on-year.
As I said just now, although the second-hand house can be sold compared with before, it is basically a price for quantity, and the expression of the seller when signing the contract is the same as a funeral.
More intuitively, you can see the recent sentiment index statistics at a glance!
Why is this happening?
In the past, the anchor of the price of new houses in Hangzhou was the price of second-hand houses and the considerable inversion they bringed.
Once upon a time, the indestructible belief in the property market made people extremely convinced that the price of second-hand housing in Hangzhou could not fall.
Since the price of second-hand housing is strong, the upside-down space must be strong, which undoubtedly injects huge certainty into the arbitrage space of new housing.
With the deterministic assistance of price limit and inversion, Hangzhou's property market has been out of the "independent market" for many years.
In the process, a large amount of investment demand and debt backlog have accumulated.
But in the past two or three years, the employment side, the property market environment, and the debt cycle have also been good...
There is no one who can fight, which led to the second-hand house owners who speculated in a few years ago and are now shipping in a heap.
What will be the result? The lethality is a bit big, you make up for it yourself.
This time, Hangzhou completely lifted the purchase restrictions, which is like a double-edged sword for the local property market.
I do not deny that in the first month or two of the policy landing, there is a high probability that the market will have a wave of stress reaction, but there is a high probability that the drug will pass and it will not be able to prepare for it than before the administration.
In the past two or three years, almost every hit in the top cities across the country.
For Hangzhou, this real energy source continues to shake the villagers in to buy houses, which is a good opportunity;
If the medicine is over, the nephew still beats the lantern - as usual, it cannot be ruled out that it will be counterproductive.
First of all, the owners in Hangzhou have to sum up:
"I'll go! Stripped naked and no one came in? Then I have to sell it quickly, I can't catch up with the hot ones if I sell them late..."
Once this consensus is formed, panic selling is likely to accelerate its spread.
To avoid this from happening, the grass people have a plan, I don't know if it should be said or not-
Opening the upper limit of land auctions and new house prices can be described as killing three birds with one stone.
First, in the past two years, the income of land auctions has declined a lot compared with the high point in 2021, and opening the skylight of land auction prices will help accelerate the recovery of land sales income.
For a city like Hangzhou, which has relied on more than 100% of its land finances for many years, this part of the money is too important!
Opening the skylight of land auction prices can not only solve the urgent needs of local finance, but also go up through the premium of land auctions, and convey confidence to the new and second-hand housing markets.
Once flour is more expensive than bread, fools know what will happen next.
Second, opening the upper limit on the price of new homes will not only help developers increase profits, but also bring more confidence to the stock housing market.
Hangzhou, the overall level of industrial added value is among the best in the country, and the economic hinterland is home to the richest group of people in the country.
The opening of the ceiling of land auction and new house prices has undoubtedly brought the most intuitive price reference to the pricing of the stock housing market, and the price of stock housing can naturally be pulled along.
Third, the volume and price of second-hand houses have risen, which will help stabilize the expectations of the land auction market and the new housing market.
Including Hangzhou, the biggest problem in the current real estate market is actually on the stock side.
Due to the unsalable second-hand housing and the excessive debt pressure of the owners, the number of sell-offs has surged, and once the sell-off volume goes up, the flow rate and price will naturally fall.
The volume and price performance of the stock housing market is transmitted to the primary and secondary markets, which will of course be manifested in the sentiment of land auctions and the downturn in new houses.
Let's consider this matter from common sense, if we want to destocking on a large scale, the only way is to "increase prices", and people can only choose to hold and buy more under the stimulation of positive expectations.
Otherwise, there will be a price stampede.
When we jump out of the property market to look at the trend of asset prices, it is not difficult to find one thing -
The factor that determines the price of short-term assets is supply and demand, and the factor that determines the price of long-term assets is actually industry.
Hangzhou's property market has opened a price increase channel since the first half of 2016, and many people still remember it vividly.
After reviewing it, you will find that the two moves of "price increase to inventory" and "monetization of shed reform" are more like a catalyst for Hangzhou.
The rise of a number of Internet giants represented by Alibaba also played a decisive role in the valuation of Hangzhou's assets at that time.
Because of the emerging high value-added industries that have risen in batches, millionaires, multimillionaires and even billionaires can be delivered to society in batches.
This part of the high-income group can increase the relevant premium through consumption, house purchases, public services, etc., so as to transmit the currency to a wider range of people.
Obviously, the situation of today's leading factories in Hangzhou can't support the pride of "it was just ordinary at that time"...
From the perspective of national economic geography, Hangzhou is still an attractive city.
Today, we can still see an endless stream of young people in every corner of Hangzhou, wearing plaid shirts and exchanging "Internet slang".
I hope that among these young people chasing their dreams, there will be smiling and cute "English teachers"...
At present, only a few cities in the country still maintain a relatively strict purchase restriction order in some areas.
The cost of credit and the extent of discounts are almost unprecedented.
Whether it is just needed or improved, you can pick and pick up slowly.