At present, there are less than 10 days left before the change of leadership of the Taiwan region on 20 May.
Although Lai Qingde and Tsai Ing-wen are both members of the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Qingde is well known as the "golden grandson of Taiwan independence," so it is widely predicted that cross-strait relations will inevitably walk on a tightrope after Lai Qingde takes office.
Moreover, as the new leader of the Taiwan region, Lai Ching-te will inevitably speak freely at his inauguration ceremony on 20 May, and will even make wild remarks about cross-strait relations.
It is precisely for this reason that the PLA has recently carried out frequent activities in the Taiwan Strait, especially when carrying out naval and air combat patrols, and has repeatedly crossed the so-called "middle line of the Taiwan Strait" by the DPP authorities.
Forty nautical miles means that it takes less than five minutes for PLA fighter jets to fly over the island of Taiwan, and these five minutes are enough for Taiwan's air force to have nowhere to hide before it has even taken off.
This is by no means a piece of paper talk, because judging from the previous analysis of military experts on the island of Taiwan, the current response time for the Taiwan Air Force is 15 to 20 minutes, that is, it takes at least 15 minutes from the time the Taiwan Air Force receives the combat order, to the time the pilots are ready, and then to the launch of fighter jets.
In this case, if the PLA fighter planes launch an attack on the Taiwan mainland, then the Taiwan Air Force will obviously have to sit back and wait for death.
Just as Qiu Yi, a political commentator on the island of Taiwan who is known as a "fighter for democracy," said, when the mainland's fighter planes appear, Taiwan's "strawberry soldiers" will either raise their white guns and strive for leniency, or they will resist and become the scapegoats of the DPP, but it is very likely that these pilots will not even have a chance to resist, but will be wiped out on the airport runway.
As a matter of fact, worries about the combat capability of Taiwan's air force have long been placed in front of the DPP, especially for Lai Ching-te, who is about to take office; as early as a month ago, this "golden grandson of Taiwan independence" was like a pins and needles inspecting the combat units of Taiwan's air force.
It has been learned that Lai Ching-de, accompanied by Chiu Kuo-cheng and Gu Li-hsiung, inspected the air defense units and tactical units of the Taiwan Air Force. Among them, Chiu Kuo-cheng is the current head of Taiwan's defense department, and Gu Li-hsiung is his successor.
As for Gu Lixiong, the next person in charge of Taiwan's defense department, it can be said that he has "abandoned literature and followed the military"; Gu Lixiong, who was born in law and politics, has no military experience, but he can become the "gun" of the Lai Ching-te government, relying on the support of the US Government behind it.
The reason for the emergence of such a situation of "showing off talent and leading troops" is closely related to the DPP and the KMT's struggle for Taiwan's armed forces.
As everyone knows, under the influence of Chiang's father and son, Taiwan's armed forces have long been inclined to the Kuomintang, and since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, she has quite the intention of "turning the "pan-blue" Taiwanese army into green, and even shouted the slogan of letting her own soldiers defend Taiwan.
It is precisely for this reason that under the DPP's reform and infiltration in the past few years, Taiwan's armed forces are imperceptibly "changing blood," and when Lai Ching-te is about to take office, he has even pushed Gu Lixiong, who has the support of the United States, to the position of head of the defense department.
However, although Lai Qingde dragged Gu Lixiong up, the mind of this "golden grandson of Taiwan independence" has not yet been completely confused, and he knows that when the mainland takes over Taiwan by force, neither Gu Lixiong nor Qiu Guozheng will be of any use, and the key is to see the true level of Taiwan's army.
Therefore, when Lai Ching-te inspected Taiwan's air force before, he focused on the ability to engage in combat, and he also repeatedly stressed the need to make preparations for 24-hour war.
In other words, Lai Qingde knew that cross-strait relations would further intensify after he took office, so he also gave the Taiwan troops a preventive shot in advance, but this "preventive shot" was more like a "placebo," because Lai Qingde actually knew very well how many pounds and taels the Taiwan army had.
At present, the frontal combat capability of Taiwan's troops is no longer the period of Chiang's father and son, and the mainland People's Liberation Army is not the millet plus rifle of half a century ago.
The only thing that can play a self-comforting role is the so-called "the United States will help Taiwan at a critical time", but this argument now seems more like self-deception.
Judging from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent visit to China, although China and the United States are still in a state of imminent separation at many levels, on the Taiwan issue, whether it is Blinken or Biden, Taiwan independence is very clear, that is, it does not support "Taiwan independence" and abides by the one-China principle.
Although this is a manifestation of the US Government's face-to-face and behind-the-scenes approach to the Taiwan issue, judging from the current international situation and Sino-US relations, China and the United States have reached a consensus on the Taiwan situation, that is, they do not want the crisis to escalate, let alone a war in the Taiwan Strait.
From the perspective of the United States, once a war with Taiwan really occurs, the United States is likely to be in a dilemma, because if the United States sends troops to help Taiwan at that time, it will mean a complete break between China and the United States.
Moreover, as far as the Taiwan issue itself is concerned, its strategic position is not necessarily comparable to that of Ukraine and Israel, because in the final analysis, the Taiwan issue is still China's family affair, and the United States used to only regard Taiwan as a pawn that could be used, and would never block the life of its family at a critical time.
Then, if the United States does not send troops to help Taiwan by then, then the mainland will inevitably complete military reunification within a short period of time, and then the United States will not only lose face, but its national status will completely fall off the altar.
As far as the Chinese side is concerned, although the great cause of cross-strait reunification is bound to be won, reunification by force is always the next policy, because reunification with Taiwan by force will bring immeasurable losses to the island of Taiwan and the people of Taiwan, and this is contrary to the peaceful reunification that the mainland has always adhered to.
Based on the above analysis, neither China nor the United States wants to further escalate the situation in Taiwan, but wants to exchange time for space.
Of course, the United States has always acted in opposition to the good and the bad, especially since the current domestic contradictions in the United States have reached a stage where they cannot be resolved, and it cannot be ruled out that the United States will eventually "jump over the wall in a hurry" and take extreme measures to divert internal contradictions, and eventually provoke a new round of "bloc confrontation."
At that time, Taiwan will inevitably become a battleground for both China and the United States, and it is very likely to become the fuse that ignites the war in Asia.
Information sources:
Taiwan media: 28 warships and aircraft of the People's Liberation Army are operating around the Taiwan Strait Reference news2024-05-09 14:52
Taiwan media rendering: 22 PLA military aircraft were active around the Taiwan Strait, some of which were only 37 nautical miles away from Keelung, "getting closer and closer" Global Network2024-04-28 11:04Beijing
"23 sorties of PLA military aircraft + 5 warships" Global Times2024-05-09 18:01